Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
558 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016
a weak cold front extended across the northern part of southeast Texas. The
front will gradually move south overnight. Some areas of fog will
be possible near ksgr...klbx and kgls ahead of the boundary.
Behind the front...MVFR ceilings are expected to develop and linger
for much of Saturday. NE winds will become east and increase on
Saturday. Winds will probably become southeast by evening except along
the immediate coast where winds will remain east. 43
Previous discussion... /issued 207 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
a northwesterly upper level flow pattern will help drive a
shortwave trough over state late this weekend into Monday. This
system will combine with a cold front to bring rain chances to the
area on Sunday and Monday. The pattern will then shift as a ridge
begins to build overhead during the middle week period.
The main issue for tonight and Saturday morning will be chances
for fog. A weak frontal boundary will move slowly southwestward
across the forecast area tonight. Patchy areas of fog will likely
develop once again. The best time period will likely be after
midnight through sunrise...with the fog area lifting with the
frontal passage. The last of the fog should lift over the
southwestern counties by middle morning tomorrow.
Will keep the isolated thunder in place Sunday night and Monday.
However...the sounding profiles are not as conducive Sunday
night. Gfsbufr forecast soundings actually look better for Monday
than the model has shown over the past four or five model runs.
There is also some indication of patchy fog forming once again
Sunday night and Monday morning ahead of the front. Will go
another few cycles and look for more consistency in the model
frontal boundary will backdoor into the marine waters early
Saturday morning. Winds will become east-northeast-east as this occurs and
will increase in speed. Small craft caution/advisory flags will be
required offshore. Winds should swing right back to the southeast Sat
night and remain at moderate speeds until the next cold front
pushes off the coast Monday afternoon. May see some patchy sea fog prior
to the frontal passage. Offshore flow in its wake will transition
back to the southeast toward midweek as high pressure moves east of the region.
Onshore flow should then continue going into next weekend. It
could be a set up for a multi-day sea fog issue - dependent on
eventual water temperatures at that time. Will cross that bridge later.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 48 64 50 71 57 / 0 10 10 20 20
Houston (iah) 51 66 49 71 59 / 0 10 10 20 30
Galveston (gls) 55 62 54 69 59 / 0 10 10 20 20