Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
706 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015
see 00z aviation discussion.
weak isentropic upglide will keep periods of very light rain and
drizzle going overnight. Ceilings will bounce a round a bit but
should generally remain below 1000 feet. Forecast soundings support
ceilings between 400-700 feet through 18z Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible
on Sunday afternoon but ceilings expected to crash again after sunset. 43
Previous discussion... /issued 232 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015/
southeast Texas early afternoon temperatures range from the lower to
middle 40s across our far northwest counties to the lower 50s in and around
the Houston area to the lower to middle 60s from the Galveston Island area
to High Island. Do not expect to see any significant warm up for the
rest of the afternoon. The area's cooler temperatures will persist for
the next several days with only a 5 to 10 degree spread anticipated
between the highs and the lows as the southwest flow aloft keeps skies
cloudy. Periods of rain can be expected too. Significant changes come
around the middle of the upcoming week after the passage of the next
cold front on Tuesday. Middle/upper level flow shifts to the west and northwest
while surface high pressure builds in from the northwest and north...and
this allows our area to finally clear out on Wednesday night and Thursday.
We should see mostly clear skies Thursday night through Friday night.
Do not anticipate any freezing temperatures for the next seven days.
Erly swell is now beginning to diminish and anticipate seas to be on a
downward trajectory overnight. Based on oil rig & buoy observations
it appears the front is situated roughly 40 nm offshore & will probably
make slow southward progress overnight. Winds behind the front look to remain
below caution criteria so will forego any flags at this time.
GFS brings the front back onshore on Monday...although it appears to be
an outlier as other models keep it offshore until the next front makes
it into the region Tuesday. So there is some uncertainty regarding wind
directions Monday through early Tuesday. Offshore flow will then increase Tuesday night
& Wednesday which will require advsy flags.
Tide levels are currently running about 1.3 feet above normal along
the beach. However with swell diminishing and winds now offshore...
believe those will continue to go down. May see a very brief window of
wave run up at Highway 87/124 this evening at high tide but
think we can get by without a coastal flood advsy. 47
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 43 48 47 58 49 / 60 60 50 30 30
Houston (iah) 50 55 53 63 53 / 50 50 40 30 30
Galveston (gls) 55 60 59 64 59 / 40 40 30 30 30