Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
557 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014
quiet taf package. Confidence is low on MVFR ceilings/visibilities
overnight. Expecting few/scattered clouds during the day tomorrow as taf
sites remain on the dry side. 42
Previous discussion... /issued 332 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
drier airmass has moved in across the NE 3/4 of the region. Still
have some welcome rain showers/thunderstorms and rain ongoing across the Matagorda Bay area.
Expect the axis of drier air to eventually push in there tonight
and Sunday and shift higher precipitation chances further SW on Sunday.
Next front currently in the northern plains will make it into southeast
Texas on Monday. Models do show some 1.8-2.1" precipitable waters pooling along the
boundary but overall convergence/dynamics aren't much to write
home about. Did however nudge probability of precipitation up closer to the coast late in
the day and evening as some solutions showing some 0.5"-2.0"+ quantitative precipitation forecast
bullseye's along the I-10 corridor & metropolitan area during that time
period. Likely a combination of seabreeze/front merger during
peak heating. Worth keeping an eye on for some brief very
localized heavy downpours.
Much drier airmass backdoors into the region Tue/Wed. Southeast Texas will
remain in a general dry Erly flow for the remainder of the work
week being situated under a large broad surface high anchored over
the NE & east states. Though weather will be primarily dry...there will
be some possible marine/coastal impacts associated west/ Erly flow.
See marine discussion below. 47
easterly winds will persist through much of the coming week. A
backdoor cold front may drift to near the coast around Tuesday...
although the result could be east-northeast for a short time period.
Tide levels may become abnormally high and low-lying locations along
the coast could see some high water problems by middle week. This will
especially be true as the astronomically predicted high tides get to
around 2 to 2.5 feet around the time of the new moon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 72 93 73 92 69 / 10 10 10 30 10
Houston (iah) 73 92 73 93 69 / 20 10 0 40 40
Galveston (gls) 78 88 79 89 75 / 20 20 10 10 30