Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
650 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015
for the 00z tafs... evening radar imagery shows isolated showers
continuing to dissipate with loss of daytime heating. One or two
may near a terminal through 07/01z however... and have included a
vcsh mention for terminals along and north of Interstate 10. MVFR
ceilings expected to return to the terminals anywhere between 05z
and 08z tonight with improvement to VFR with heating after 16z
Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers /and possibly a
thunderstorm or two/ expected again late Thursday morning through
the afternoon across southeast Texas. Otherwise... southeasterly
winds generally 10 to 15 knots expected to prevail with stronger
gusts near 20 knots possible Thursday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015/
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain should diminish in coverage west/ the loss of heating.
Went above guidance suggestions and more in line with last nights
low temperatures again tonight considering winds will remain up.
Synoptic set-up remains about the same going into the weekend
with broad middle level trough to the west and a ridge extending from
scntl Mexico into east TX-la-MS. Corresponding SW flow aloft will
carry embedded disturbances across the state through the weekend.
Although difficult to time - the favored tracks of these impulses
should keep best precipitation chances west and north of the region
through the end of the work week...although northern periphery
(lets say Brenham-livingston) may get clipped from time-to-time.
Otherwise would just expect mainly diurnally driven scattered shra/tsra.
Shortwave digs southward into socal Friday and kicks out into the plains
later this weekend. As this occurs the ridge will be shunted
further east which will eventually allow a series of disturbances
to move overhead going into the middle of next week. To complicate
matters...looking for cold front to move into Texas late Sunday or
Monday and eventually stall nearby as it becomes oriented parallel
to upper flow. This pattern, if it verifies, points to a fairly
active weather period with heavy rain/severe weather threats all on The Table.
moderate onshore winds will continue through the end of the week.
Caution conditions due mainly to seas will persist through tonight
as well. 40
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 73 85 73 85 73 / 20 40 30 40 30
Houston (iah) 73 86 73 86 73 / 20 30 20 30 20
Galveston (gls) 74 82 74 83 74 / 20 20 20 20 20
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to
60 nm...waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 nm...waters from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60
nm...waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 nm.