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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1007 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

refined timing of front based on latest hrrr runs...just a tad
faster than earlier this evening. In fact already seeing colder
air filtering into western suburbs with frontal passage over past hour
at Brookshire and near Katy. Southward push slower however north
of depending where you are around town the front will
push through greater Houston overnight...occuring now in some
western suburbs...but more toward daybreak for southeast sections. The
front should then push slowly to coast by late Saturday afternoon.
Still some uncertainty in timing but this is the best estimate for
now. Could be some at least patchy fog as well ahead of the front
where dewpoints are in the lower 70s...and water temperature at
Bay entrance is 67. 46


Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015/

cold front is moving into our northern counties this afternoon. The
temperature at Caldwell dropped from 73 to 55 degrees after the front
moved through. Current readings well behind the boundary (northern Hill
Country area) are in the lower to middle 40s while upper 70s to around
80 can be found across much of southeast Texas. Also seeing a general
increase in shower coverage across the area...especially up in our northwest
counties in association with the front. Afternoon package will have
the front making progress further into southeast Texas during the remaining
afternoon...evening and overnight hours with temperatures falling behind
the boundary. Expect to see periods of showers with possible embedded
thunderstorms over the weekend as the front meanders across the area
and middle/upper level disturbances ride along the southwest flow aloft.
Will carry the higher rain chances up north and the lower numbers in/around
the Galveston Bay area which has the potential to remain ahead of the
front for most of the weekend. If this happens...high temperatures in/around
that area could stay in the 70s. Models are not in very good agreement
with the frontal forecast confidence on both temperatures
and rain chances is on the low side. Periods of rain and cool temperatures
remain in the forecast during the first half of next week for the entire
area with the front finally off the coast...and it looks like clearing
(and still cool temperatures) can be expected toward the end of the
week as this messy system finally moves off to the east. 42

still have a 7ft/10sec swell rolling into the Upper Texas coastal
waters. Will probably extend the small craft advsy in the 20-60nm
waters through the evening and hopefully next shift can begin the
downgrades as seas start slowly subsiding.

Also expecting some minor coastal flooding and/or overwash from wave
run up on Highway 87/124 on the Bolivar Peninsula this evening
around high tide (6pm - overall threat period 3-10pm). Water levels
running about 1.5ft above normal. They'll likely remain above normal
through the weekend but moderate down to around +1ft as winds/seas
diminish this weekend.

Weak frontal boundary will approach the upper coast later tonight
but probably stall and/or meander just inland for a good part of the
day Saturday. This initial wind shift has a better chance of
occurring in the nearshore waters west of Freeport late Sat...but
overall forecast confidence as to if the gls area even sees one this
weekend is quite low as there are various & inconsistent model
solutions. There will be a stronger southward push arriving Monday
night/Tuesday morning & have more confidence west/ that one nudging the
front well offshore. May need sca's by midweek. 47

Previous discussion... /issued 1128 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015/

mixed bag of MVFR & VFR ceilings out there today. Would anticipate a
bit of improvement during the middle afternoon hours...but do expect ceilings
to fall back closer to 1000ft near cll 4-6pm as frontal boundary
and associated precipitation nears the site. Expect this boundary to make
very slow southward progress to around the Highway 59 corridor
overnight then hang up in that general vicinity for a good part
of the day Sat. Drizzly/-ra weather and IFR ceilings will likely be the
rule for a good part of the night and most of the day Sat. 47


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 45 49 46 50 48 / 70 60 60 60 40
Houston (iah) 53 56 55 67 53 / 40 50 40 40 30
Galveston (gls) 67 73 64 71 60 / 20 20 20 20 30


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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