Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1213 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
18z aviation discussion below.
VFR. Dry air mass makes for mainly clear skies through the day
with a possible overnight middle-level few-scattered deck formation...
maybe a broken ceiling closer to the coast. Northerlies will weaken
into tonight...vrb03kt to calm Wednesday morning. 31
Previous discussion... /issued 934 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
see discussion for morning update.
a cold and sunny day can be expected across the area this
afternoon. The surface cold front has pushed offshore with
surface high pressure settling in behind it. Earlier windy
conditions along the coast will continue to subside this afternoon
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Because of this have let the
Wind Advisory expire. High temperatures will have trouble reaching
the 50s today as the Arctic air mass remains overhead. Current
forecast package has this covered and have only made minor tweaks
to grids. 23
Previous discussion... /issued 443 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
with lowering dewpoints in the wake of this reinforcing cold front
and the exiting shortwave aloft (as upper flow becomes more zonal)
a bit of a break from this cloudy wet weather expected across southeast Texas the
next day or so. However...winds will be a bit slower in responding
especially over the coastal zones. No change with the current Wind
Advisory configuration planned for this morning.
Another reinforcing cold front on Wednesday should help keep temperatures below
normals on through the end of the week. Clouds could make a return
around midweek as the next upper low/trough out west begins to deep-
en and help to draw moisture in from the W/SW. As this feature be-
gins to move west...probability of precipitation should return to the forecast in starting Thursday
night...with the best probability of precipitation Friday/Friday night lingering into Sat. Precipitable waters
prognosticated to climb into the 1.5"-1.7" range just ahead of the associated-
ated cold front...but extended models are also hinting at possible
Post-frontal precipitation/clouds for Sat. All of this expected to clear by
early sun as high pressure builds over the region. 41
Small Craft Advisory conditions in place with sustained winds 20-28 knots and
building seas 5-10 feet through middle morning then winds should
gradually relax. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory offshore until 2 PM. Seas
should be the last to drop down from Small Craft Advisory conditions. North and NE flow
will continue until a reinforcing cold front arrives Thursday
morning and raises winds. High pressure slides east quickly as a
vigorous upper level low off the Southern California coast arrives in Texas which
should draw back warm front and onshore flow ushering in the
potential for fog. Models scattered on potential for thunderstorms
Friday but can't rule out thunderstorms in at least the far coastal
waters. Weaker high pressure builds into netx and should warrant a
brief stint of Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday and Sunday morning.
skies clearing from the northwest and west with dry air quickly
spreading southward. Upper short wave trough axis has passed and subsidence
should continue through the day. Expect the MVFR ceilings from cxo
southward to improved to VFR by 12-14z. North winds 10-20kts and gusty
should relax this afternoon. VFR conditions should then until
Thursday night when a warm front moves back into the region Friday
morning with low ceilings and visby.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 30 51 34 51 39 / 10 10 10 10 20
Houston (iah) 33 54 36 52 40 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (gls) 43 56 44 54 50 / 10 10 10 10 20
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 1 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport 20 to 60 nm.
Small craft should exercise caution until 9 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm.