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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
404 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Discussion...
two main areas of precipitation slowly circling those areas that
have received the highest 24-48 hour rainfall have made for quite
the slow day...in relation to the last couple of days. Breaks in
the overcast this afternoon have allowed temperatures to top out
in the middle 80s and this have been enough to focus scattered
cells along a weak middle-level boundary. The second area of rainfall
has resided offshore...most likely focusing upon old outflow from
Thursday-early friday's activity. The flooding threat has significantly
diminished but...with such saturated grounds...a slow passing cell
that drops a quick high rainfall rate could quickly induce nuisance
flooding within low-lying areas. Thus...will remain conservative
with the Friday night lights and hang onto the Flood Watch for a
few more hours (anticipating an expiration at 7 PM cdt). As skies
clear form the northeast to southwest...a wet ground and light
east breezes may provide an environment conducive for the formation
of early morning (interior radiative) fog.

Easterly flow has developed as this will pull in a drier air mass
currently resident over the Piney Woods/Sabine region. Average
dew points near 70f will advect into the region through tonight...
shunting the higher precipitable water air towards the coastal Bend. A sharp
decline in probability of precipitation will result...slight to low chance primarily
focuses through the coastal counties and points offshore through
the weekend. 1.3 to 1.5 inch precipitable waters advertised in the forecast
soundings do not support much in the way of inland overcast nor
precipitation. Probability of precipitation will remain slight or near none over the next
several days a predominant flow from the northeast-east reaffirms
an already drier resident air mass. Afternoons will warm back up
to the near normal upper 80s to lower 90s...with early mornings
cooling into the average lower 70s (cooler far interior rural
minimum temperatures might even flirt with the middle 60s). The early week
upper level pattern is forecast to be more influenced by western-
based upper ridging...with the trough forming off the U.S. West
Coast lifting up and into the central U.S. By Tuesday...flattening
Southern Plains ridging and fortifying the aforementioned northeast
low-middle level flow pattern. The medium and long term forecast
involves no major weather changes. Early day morning showers
blossoming further inland with late morning heating...near middle-
late September diurnal temperature behavior. 31

&&

Marine...
high pressure over the northern U.S. And low pressure over the SW
Gulf of Mexico will keep an east wind in place through the weekend.
Weekend mariners can expect slightly elevated sea heights due to the
prolonged easterly fetch. A secondary surge of upper level energy
will drive a cold front into southeast Texas before this feature stalls over
coastal la/TX. East winds will persist through next weekend and
gradually strengthen middle week and beyond as the pressure gradient
tightens. A persistent easterly fetch will allow tide levels to
slowly increase through the week. 43

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 74 88 71 89 72 / 20 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 72 88 72 89 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 77 85 77 85 77 / 30 20 20 10 10

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones:
Austin...Brazoria...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Galveston...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...
Montgomery...Waller...Wharton.

GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/43

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