Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
924 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
not many changes made to going forecast wtih light winds...and mostly
clear skies. Lower humidity levels suggest little risk of fog or
low cloud development either. Low temperature forecast a little
tricky as may seem some locally cooler conditions given the lower
dewpoints inland and lack of cloud cover. Tweeked the min
forecast down at tad and adjusted sky grids to match current clear
to mostly clear conditions. 46
Previous discussion... /issued 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
VFR next 24 hours...and only expect some cirrus across the area. Variable
winds 5 knots or less tonight gradually becoming southeast tomorrow
afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. No rain. 42
Previous discussion... /issued 354 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
a dry airmass has filtered across southeast Texas with a cold
front off the coast at middle afternoon. The temperature forecast is
the main item of concern...first the overnight lows tonight and
Sunday night...and then the daytime highs through the period. With
the front off the coast in an upper level low pressure weakness...
rain chances will be mainly offshore of the coast through Tuesday.
Lowered the overnight temperatures for tonight and Sunday night...
although an onshore flow may begin as early as Sunday night or
early Monday morning. Took a blend of the guidance but leaned more
toward the cooler mav for the low temperatures. For daytime high
temperatures...slightly cooler than mav guidance is likely on
Sunday and possibly Monday.
Gulf moisture will return with onshore winds beginning on Monday
and Tuesday. The upper level ridge is forecast by the models to
meander over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico into Texas.
The strength of the ridge over southeast Texas will determine high
temperatures later in the week. For now...took a blend of the
earlier forecast and the model blends...meaning daytime highs
staying mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 for most of the
10-15 knots NE winds will gradually subside this evening. Winds will
become light and variable toward Sun morning then increase to
10-15 knots as southerly flow strengthens in response to a
deepening upper level trough in the Great Lakes with continued
upper ridging to the west. A chance for some showers or even a
thunderstorm for the offshore waters will arrive early Monday as
moisture near a warm front returns. 33
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 69 98 73 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 74 99 75 97 78 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 80 94 80 91 82 / 0 10 10 10 10