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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1120 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

looks like the drier air/ridging is holding on across southeast Texas so far
this morning. While some of the shorter range models are showing a
bit of development over the far western portions of the County Warning Area later this
afternoon...will keep forecast as is for now. 41


Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/

A relatively quiet start to Thursday is underway for southeast
Texas. Regional radar mosaic shows the outflow that moved across
the region yesterday having pushed through New Orleans early this
morning with dry conditions across the region. Infrared satellite
and observations do Show Low stratus/patchy fog beginning to
develop from near Columbus to Conroe as of 3 am CDT... underneath
some higher cirrus streaming across the region. 00z upper air
analysis showed an inverted trough remains over northern Mexico...
upper ridging over the western Continental U.S. And troughing over the
east... and southeast Texas under northerly flow.

Ridging building in from the northwest will help limit rain
chances for southeast Texas both today and Friday. High resolution
guidance does show an isolated shower or two will be possible both
days /primarily from convergence along the coast/. However... with
a much drier airmass in place /precipitable water values near 1.5
to 1.7 inches/ and convective temperatures approaching 90
degrees... anything that is able to develop farther inland will be
the exception and not the rule. Otherwise... expect temperatures
today and Friday to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight
lows should fall into the middle 70s to near 80 with patchy fog also
be possible in more rural areas Friday morning given recent
rainfall and light winds.

The overall upper air pattern is expected to persist over the
upcoming Holiday weekend... but a middle-level speed maximum/disturbance
located over southeastern Montana per 00z soundings will approach
the arklatex Friday allowing the upper level trough to push the
ridge back to the west. Height falls overspreading the region will
increase rain chances throughout the day on the 4th... with the
highest northeast of the Houston metropolitan /closer to the actual
disturbance/. Low rain chances will linger into Sunday as the
disturbance moves east of the region. In addition to the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend... heat
indices are expected to rise to near or slightly above 100 degrees
each afternoon.

A flattened ridge begins establishing itself by the beginning of
next week over the Southern Plains... with rising heights by the
end of next week increasing temperatures and decreasing rain
chances for southeast Texas.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 91 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
Houston (iah) 92 76 93 77 91 / 10 10 10 10 40
Galveston (gls) 89 80 90 81 88 / 10 10 10 20 30


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...


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