Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1151 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014
06z aviation discussion below.
no major changes to this early morning package. Scattered offshore
precipitation in Matagorda bay's area signals that kgls may tempo
down to MVFR (ceilings) with vicinity showers through sunrise.
Moderate chance for recurring daytime convection with less areal
coverage. Latest guidance still forecasts the eastern upper ridge to
expand over region and suppress precipitation going into the
Previous discussion... /issued 844 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/
showers and thunderstorms coming to an end this evening with the loss
of heating. Current forecast and reasoning for the rest of the week
covered in discussions below looks good. Plan on no major changes
to the grids until after the arrival of all 20/00z models.
Previous discussion... /issued 653 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/
00z aviation discussion below.
this afternoon's convection pulling off to the northeast with a
quiet overnight period. Upper level trough across central Texas
is forecast to dissolve into the western expansion of the currently
northern Gulf-centered upper ridge. Confidence is not particularly
high that there will not be a continued middle-upper layer weakness...
or shear zone aloft...that will still provide the lift of an eastern
Texas highly moist and unstable air mass. Although better behaving
modeling has return late morning into early afternoon widely scattered
convection firing up once again...there is less areal coverage in
relation to previous days. Thus...placed thunderstorms in the vicinity and probability 30s in during
warmth of day to not totally bite on return thunder...or advertise
the modest probability that eastern ridging will not completely
absorb western troughing (for one last day). 31
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/
decent coverage of precipitation today across the area. Like yesterday...expect
it to dissipate early this evening west/ loss of heating. Will need to
keep an eye on outflows from la storms moving south-southwest as they could
serve as a focus for additional development near Chambers Colorado &
possibly nearby nearshore/Gulf waters. Deeper surge of western
Gulf moisture seen on Sat pictures arrives Wednesday morning and should
provide one more day of scattered precipitation coverage on Wednesday. Hopefully
cloudiness & temperatures will linger later at the coast and limit heat
indices below 105. Until that occurs heat advsy continues along
the coast (peaked 105-108 today).
Ridge amplifies/expands and becomes centered over la/MS/AR in the
coming days. Combination of increased subsidence and lower
moisture levels will limit chances of precipitation across southeast Texas Thursday
through the weekend. Temperatures might climb a degree or two as well but no
sig thickness changes seen. Getting to be that time of year to
keep an eye on the tropics. A few models are suggesting some
eventual development in the Atlantic. Until if & when something
becomes better organized out there...expect wildly varying &
frequently changing solutions via models. 47
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 78 97 77 98 77 / 10 40 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 78 96 79 96 77 / 10 40 10 20 10
Galveston (gls) 84 92 84 92 83 / 20 40 20 20 10
Texas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following zones: