Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1152 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation...
generally messy forecast as timing of the onset of precipitation remains one
of the main issues. Short term forecasts continue to paint a rather
wet picture for southeast Texas for this afternoon/evening as the coastal low sets
up to our SW. Given the proximity of the low-level jet (current-
ly just to our west) and the expectations of it slowly shifting
east with time...have tweaked previous tafs a bit to start precipitation
mentions (mainly vcsh) for the afternoon (and on through the evening
and overnight hrs). Another issue of note for the latter/end of
the current taf period (sun morn/aftn)...the possibility of sea
fog for gls. 41

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 958 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Update...
morning forecast update.

Discussion...
surface observation at 15z showed temperatures ranging from the upper 40s along the
coast to upper 30s from kcll to kuts. Visible satellite shows pretty
good cloud cover. With NE/east low level wind flow...do not think
temperatures will increase much this afternoon. Short range mesoscale models
seem to think likewise. Shower activity should increase later this
afternoon as a coastal low over the Lower Texas coast begins to move
up along the Gulf Coast. Main forecast change was to adjust temperatures
for today based on current trends and adjust rain chances some for
this afternoon/tonight.

Warm air advection pattern will continue into Sunday so temperature
forecast will be challenging. While temperatures do not warm much during
the day...possible to get temperatures to hold steady or gradually
increase a degree or two overnight. Otherwise rest of the forecast
looks on track.

39

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 46 44 57 51 65 / 40 50 40 40 40
Houston (iah) 51 49 66 59 71 / 30 50 40 30 30
Galveston (gls) 56 56 68 61 68 / 30 50 40 30 30

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations