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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
704 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

for the 12z tafs... VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

A weak cold front has moved across the southeast Texas terminals
early this morning. Northerly flow around 5 to 10 knots inland
and 10 to 15 knots along the coast is expected behind the front
as surface high pressure builds into the region. Low level wind
shear behind the front may be a concern over cll/uts through middle-
morning with the feet Hood VAD wind profiler showing northerly winds
30 to 35 knots just off the surface through 2kft. Have included a
mention at uts and will continue to monitor for amendments
elsewhere. Otherwise... light and variable winds overnight are
expected to become southerly/ southeasterly Sunday morning as
surface high pressure slides to the east.



Previous discussion...

at 3 am...a weak cold front extended from about klft to kiah to
kcot. The front will continue to push south this morning with a
brief uptick in winds and slightly drier air in the wake of the
front. Forecast soundings continue to show meager moisture with precipitable water values
around 1.20 inches so no rain is expected today. Leaned toward the
warmer NAM/European model (ecmwf) guidance for temperatures due to the warmer start to the
day and dry advection. With the dry air in place...lows on Sunday
morning should be a few degrees cooler than this morning. Upper
level ridging remains in place on Sunday with 500 heights building
to 589 dm so another very warm day is expected. Forecast soundings
support high temperatures in the middle 90s west of a Madisonville to
Columbus line with lower 90s over the central zones. Have again
leaned toward the warmer NAM/European model (ecmwf) guidance. Moisture level begin to
increase late Sunday and increase further on Monday reaching 1.60
inches by Monday afternoon. Heights decrease a bit on Monday as a weak
shortwave scoots across the Ozark Plateau. Despite the decrease in 500
heights...950 mb temperatures actually warm so Lower/Middle 90s seem reasonable
for maximum temperatures.

A cold front will cross southeast Texas late Monday night or early Tuesday
morning. This feature coupled with a weak upper level disturbance
and precipitable water values approaching 1.80 inches should yield scattered
shra/tsra. Very dry air will filter into the region on Tuesday
with precipitable water values falling to 0.74 inches by Tuesday afternoon. Very dry air
will dominate the region through the end of the week with abundant
sunshine...unseasonably warm daytime temperatures and very low
humidity levels. If you don't get rain on will
probably go another 10 days without rain. Looking way...ahead the
GFS is showing a front with some potential for rain on Oct 24th.

surface observations showed a weak cold front located roughly along
the Interstate 10 corridor as of 3 am CDT... and this boundary will
continue to sag south towards the Upper Texas coast over the next
few hours. Light offshore winds are expected over the coastal waters
today as the cold front pushes out into the Gulf later this
morning... with weak cold air advection possibly providing a brief
increase in winds /10 to 15 knots/ in the vicinity of the front this
morning. Surface high pressure nosing into the Gulf behind today/S
front is expected to slide east on Sunday... allowing onshore flow
to resume and persist through the beginning of next week.

Another cold front is expected to reach the coastal waters
Tuesday... with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible as the
front moves into the Gulf. Offshore flow behind this front is
expected to be short-lived... with easterly winds becoming
established by Wednesday. Otherwise... no caution or advisory flags
anticipated with seas 1-2 feet through the middle of next week.



No rain has fallen so far this month and not much is expected
through the weekend. Many past octobers have been dry including
the October of 2010. Here is a brief list of other dry octobers:

Iah cll gls hou

T 1934 0.00 1952 T 1952 T 1978
0.01 1963 T 2010 T 1889 T 1952
0.02 2010 0.05 1948 0.03 1924 0.05 1961
0.07 2010


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 90 63 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 89 64 90 70 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 84 73 84 75 85 / 0 0 10 10 10


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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