Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1147 PM CST sun Dec 21 2014
quick evening update to add mention of fog based on latest
observational trends with increasing low level moisture and
stratus build down contributing to additional development later
tonight. Anticipate fog to dissipate Monday morning with onset of
daytime heating. Remainder of forecast on track and updated
products will be out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 1126 PM CST sun Dec 21 2014/
see 06z aviation discussion.
forecast soundings continue suggest that ceilings will fall below 800 feet
overnight and this appears to be happening as kiah and khou are
already near this threshold. Leaned toward a rap/hrrr/nam12 blend.
Winds are strengthening and should be gusty on Monday afternoon. Winds
at 2000 feet will increase to 40-45 kts by 12z so added low level wind shear for
kcll...kiah and khou for early Monday morning (10-14z). 43
Previous discussion... /issued 835 PM CST sun Dec 21 2014/
astronomical winter began at 5:03 PM CST today...and the first
night of the season looks to be a mild one. Surface analysis at 7
PM showed a developing Lee trough stretching from southwest Texas
north to the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains...with the region
on the western periphery of a surface ridge over the eastern
Continental U.S.. additionally...the cold front prognosticated to make its way into
southeast Texas late Monday into Tuesday morning was shown
stretching from near the Montana/North Dakota border southwest
towards the Rocky Mountains. Evening satellite imagery depicted
generally cloudy skies in place...with an area of clearing
stretching from near Brazoria County into Liberty County.
The surface ridge will continue to lose what little influence it
still has over the region overnight...allowing southeasterly to
southerly return flow to promote low-level moisture advection and
aid in redevelopment of the low cloud deck where clearing has been
observed. Latest hi-res guidance and forecast soundings indicate
enough saturation will be present late tonight into Monday morning
for the development of patchy drizzle. For the evening
update...have added mention of drizzle with the rest of the
forecast for tonight remaining largely on track.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 51 71 52 54 36 / 10 10 10 20 10
Houston (iah) 53 73 57 58 39 / 10 10 20 40 10
Galveston (gls) 56 72 62 62 45 / 10 10 20 40 10