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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
432 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

surface ridge axis draped across netx/la/MS/al this morning which
should keep the area dry (except for the coastal counties) today
with warmer conditions on tap. Easterly ll flow will prevail today
decoupling tonight. A fast moving cold front over Kansas today
will drop south and into the area Monday afternoon and should have
enough moisture to work with for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Gusty winds possible but heavy rain should be
limited given the storm motions. The cold front pushes out into
the Gulf and SW coastal counties by evening and rain chances drop
again. Dry air flows into the region Tuesday and Wednesday with
very pleasant Fall weather on tap. The autumnal equinox is 829 PM
Monday night. Showers should be possible most of the week over the
Gulf and some may skirt into Brazoria/Matagorda/Jackson counties
so will carry isolated/slight chance probability of precipitation for this lower
probability event.

The dry weather continues through Friday over most of southeast Texas then
ridging weakens and upper trough drops south across the Southern
Plains and into southeast Texas Saturday night which should pool deep
tropical moisture over the western Gulf and may even drag some
into southeast Texas Saturday so will trend the forecast toward the 00z European model (ecmwf)
solution and introduce slight chance/chance probability of precipitation for Saturday
mainly over the southern County Warning Area.


winds/seas over the coastal waters flirting with scec criteria
this morning...but will likely not add the mention at this time. However
expect- ing gradient to relax a bit more this afternoon/tonight as the
next cold front approaches. Models in fairly good agreement with
the movement of the front off the coast Monday afternoon and the
subsequent light/moderate offshore (nely) flow for most of the
upcoming week. 41


very spotty patchy fog this morning should burn off quickly by
late morning. Otherwise VFR through the day. Spotty patchy fog a
possib- ility once again tonight/early Monday morning. May have to add
mention of precipitation for the more southern sites with frontal passage during the day
Monday. 41


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 93 72 92 68 88 / 10 10 30 10 0
Houston (iah) 92 72 92 68 87 / 10 0 40 30 0
Galveston (gls) 86 79 87 75 86 / 20 10 20 30 0


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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