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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
446 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Discussion...
not a lot of changes with the going forecast of continued rains for
today/tomorrow. Very high precipitable waters noted over the region (~2.3") and
not expecting that we will need a lot of heating for precipitation devel-
opment to start again later this morning/aftn. As this moisture
lingers into tomorrow we may have the remnants of Odile to deal
with as well. Will likely keep with average rainfall totals from .5
to 1'...isolated 3-4" today through tonight.

Rain chances to decrease some by Friday (on into the weekend) with
weak upper ridging building in behind the upper trough (odile rem-
nants). However will be keeping isolated/scattered probability of precipitation in for this period
as the deep tropical moisture lingers over the area. Long range
models keeping with the passage of the cold front at or above Monday...but
with varying degrees of strength. European model (ecmwf) keeping its frontal passage a bit
more robust than GFS at this time...but given the more consistent forecasts
of a fairly deep north/northwesterly flow aloft will be leaning more towards
the European model (ecmwf) for this time frame. 41

&&

Marine...
a few showers around Galveston Bay moving southeast and a few
showers developing around Matagorda Bay and moving north. Weak middle
level ridging over the western Gulf appears to be dictating motion
for now but as the ridging moves west expect that weak upper level
disturbances will track from northwest to southeast through southeast Texas and into the
coastal waters combining with daytime heating to increase
coverage. Light winds typically in the 7-12 knot range will
prevail from the south. May have a cluster to deal with over the
coastal waters tomorrow morning as northwest flow aloft interacts with
push of drier air into la and moist axis lines up beneath the
track of the disturbances coming in northwest. Am favoring the European model (ecmwf) for
the frontal boundary arriving late Monday/Tuesday.
45

&&

Aviation...
messy weather across the region. Line of low clouds IFR/vlifr from
6r3- cxo-11r with high clouds south of the line. Some development
southward seems possible but confidence is low so for now will
keep iah VFR. Showers should develop as temperatures rise into the
lower 80s across the southern terminals then expand northward
through the afternoon. Slow moving storms will pose a threat of
heavy downpours but is hard to tell if one of the airports is
favored for getting whacked. For now will just keep a tempo going
for roughly 17-21z but needless to say IFR visby may develop with
heavy downpours. Storms may be slower to depart than they did this
evening and most models keep it active through 01-03z Thursday.
45

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 90 75 86 72 90 / 60 30 60 30 40
Houston (iah) 89 74 86 73 89 / 60 30 60 30 50
Galveston (gls) 87 79 85 78 87 / 60 40 60 30 50

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

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