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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1151 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014

please see 18z aviation discussion.


lower ceilings are eroding as a result of dry middle level air getting
mixed with the saturated lower layers. VFR conditions on tap for
this afternoon with surface winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots
from the south and southwest as the low level jet gets mixed down
to the surface.

Tonight...a pre-frontal trough will move across the area late
tonight. MVFR/IFR ceilings will reform around 8-10z Tuesday. Chance of
showers mostly along the coast Tuesday morning while inland
terminals may experience widespread light rain and drizzle. 44


Previous discussion... /issued 959 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014/

no significant changes with this update. Overcast deck continuing to
break up this morning (on through the aftn) as strengthening winds
just above the surface helps to break to things up. Warmer temperatures to
also prevail today/tonight given the increased low-level moist-
ure/clearing skies. Models still going with a pre-frontal trough/
wind shift Tuesday morning before the passage of the main/actual cold
front (much colder airmass) Tuesday aftn/eve. 41

Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014/

Areas of fog can be found across parts of southeast Texas early
this morning with temperatures generally in the middle to upper 50s.
South to southwest surface winds today will warm temperatures into
the upper 60s to lower 70s as skies become partly cloudy. A strong
cold front (and possible rain) is still on schedule to move
through the area on Tuesday with falling temperatures and breezy
conditions developing behind the boundary (wind advisories are not
anticipated at this time). Models continue to trend a little
colder behind this front...and inland low temperatures in the 30s
will be possible on both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the 50s. Readings will warm up on Thursday
and Friday...then cool down again over the weekend after the
passage of another cold front (at this time it looks like inland
lows will be in the 40s on Saturday and in the 30s on sunday). 42


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 52 57 37 53 35 / 10 30 10 10 0
Houston (iah) 57 61 40 54 36 / 10 30 10 10 0
Galveston (gls) 62 65 46 54 44 / 10 30 10 10 0


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 4 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm.




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