Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
421 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013 


Discussion... 
perhaps another day or so of isolated/widely scattered precipitation before things be- 
gin to shut down. Lingering upper level trough axis along with weak 
disturbances moving in from the west-southwest will help to produce activity 
today into the evening hours. This scenario should play out again 
for Friday with slightly lesser coverage as subsidence begins to set 
in over the region. 


The building upper ridge that models have been teasing US with is 
beginning to look more likely by this weekend. Warmer temperatures/lower 
to no probability of precipitation will be on tap starting Sat...and likely persisting on 
through the early part of next week. However extended guidance is 
still hinting at the possibility of increased probability of precipitation late next week 
(into the weekend) as the ridge lifts a bit north/NE and disturbances 
move in from the east. Will have to see how this plays out. 41 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure over the eastern Gulf will maintain an onshore flow of 
10-15 knots through Friday then relaxing slightly. A more diurnal 
pattern of slightly stronger winds overnight with lighter winds on 
tap for the bays. 
45 
&& 


Aviation... 
some patchy MVFR ceilings and visby early this morning but very patchy. 
Otherwise VFR. A few showers and possibly even a thunderstorm 
possible today but so isolated in nature will not include in 
terminal forecasts. 
45 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 97 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Houston (iah) 96 75 96 75 96 / 20 20 20 20 10 
Galveston (gls) 92 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$