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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1242 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015

VFR. High pressure centered near iah will keep winds light today
before high slides east enough to allow prevailing winds to
become more easterly Thursday. Shallow moisture return this
afternoon will likely set the stage for areas of fog in lbx area
and may need to add some light fog to sgr terminal. Lbx will
probably drop into IFR visby fog 10-14z...may even get lower but
not that confident yet.


Previous discussion... /issued /

nice quiet morning as light and variable winds slowly transition
to weak onshore through the day. Middle-upper ridge axis centered
over eastern Texas just downstream of a broad upper low over the
Desert Southwest. Ridging will break down going into the late work
week...weakening subsidence...along with a persistent return flow
increasing precipitable waters. The upper low is prognosticated to
travel into northern Mexico then retrograde back over the Baja California
Saturday. Over the next 24 to 36 hours...any weak disturbance/ripple
moving up within the southwesterly flow pattern may initialize
scattered (primarily southwestern cwa) afternoon rain showers/isolated
thunder. Although surface dew points will slowly rise into the middle
to upper 60s...there will be enough daytime dry middle layer air mix
down...with enough warm late week into weekend
afternoons to around 90f plus or minus a degree. 31

Previous discussion... /issued /

see 12z aviation discussion.

VFR conds expected for the next 24 hours. There will be periods of
high cloudiness and a brief period of middle level cloudiness over
the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light through the taf
period. 43

Previous discussion... /issued /

slow return of low-level moisture across southeast Texas helping with the
development of some patchy fog over parts of the County Warning Area this morning.
This trend will be continuing today...with drier air aloft mixing
down during the afternoon tempering relative humidity levels somewhat. Not a lot of
changes with the forecast for the rest of the week otherwise. Models
continuing with the Prospect of low probability of precipitation Thursday/Friday as the southwesterly flow
aloft helps to drag weak disturbances across the area around the
upper low moving through southern Arizona. Given limited moisture depth and
return...low/iso probability of precipitation for Thursday/Friday seem the way to go at this time. The
passage of a cold front Friday night will shut probability of precipitation down by Sat morning.
Slightly above normal temperatures to prevail the rest of the week. 41

light and variable winds will become more east to southeast as the
week progresses. Winds and seas could be a little higher on Thursday
and Friday due to a slightly tighter pressure gradient...but caution
flags are not anticipated. The gradient will weaken over the weekend
resulting in lower winds and seas. 43


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 91 68 91 69 90 / 0 10 20 10 20
Houston (iah) 90 69 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 10 20
Galveston (gls) 85 75 85 74 86 / 0 10 10 10 20


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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