Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
341 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014
onshore flow has resumed and dewpoints are on the rise. Not
expecting much of a temperature drop...if at all...overnight. Precipitation
associated with tail end of shortwave axis moving into plains
will skirt across north zones later this afternoon and evening. Moisture/precipitation
orientation should become more west-southwest-east-northeast oriented overnight as it
sags closer to the coast.
Continued scattered precipitation coverage across southern 1/4 to 1/2 part of the
region on Thursday with remnant moisture in place along with warm
front meandering about. Generally light nuisance amounts...but
enough for a gloomy day that are fairly typical once the warm
sector pushes inland. Highs on Thursday will be tricky depending on
the boundary positioning. Also added mention of sea fog closer to
coast through Friday.
Attention then turns to system currently digging down West Coast.
It should push across northern Mexico and into Texas Thursday night and Friday.
Increasing large scale ascent...precipitable waters around 1... surface wave
developing along warm front should allow for rapid increase in
precipitation coverage late Thursday night...continuing into Friday afternoon until
the system exits the area off to the east aler in the day. Most
of model guidance still indicates potential for 1-2" north of
I-10...and less than 1" south of there. Wouldn't anticipate very
many issues west/ that should it verify. Instability is lacking so
severe threat looks minimal...but always Worth keeping an eye on
closer to the warm front.
Cold front pushes off the coast Friday evening in the wake of this
system....bringing a cool dry weekend. Onshore flow should resume
early next week.
Ridge off the West Coast amplifies early next week allowing for
deepening trough across nations middle section. Looking for another
front to push through on Tuesday...probably a mostly dry frontal passage with
limited time for moisture return. Cool and dry again through xmas
evening. Preliminary guess for xmas is for warmer conditions...
increasing clouds...breezy southerly winds...and possibly some
drizzle. Still a long ways off weather-wise though. 47
winds tonight may increase enough to reach scec criteria. A warm
front will move onshore on Thursday and bring chances for sea fog
formation late Thursday and early Friday. A cold front will then
push offshore Friday evening. Winds behind the front should reach
advisory levels over the Gulf waters Friday night into early
Saturday morning. 40
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 55 68 56 58 45 / 60 20 80 80 10
Houston (iah) 58 74 60 67 47 / 40 50 70 80 20
Galveston (gls) 61 71 63 68 51 / 30 50 50 70 20