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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
407 am CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Discussion...
not much change or reasoning to the ongoing forecast. Based on rig
observations & Sat pictures it appears axis of the easterly wave in
the Gulf currently extends generally from off the SW la coast to well
southward into the Gulf. Locations closer to the coast will begin
to see the deeper tropical moisture & scattered precipitation chances arrive
later today as the axis makes continued westward progress. Once we get
on the backside of the trough...deeper moisture will gradually
spread inland on Tuesday as llvls of the atmos open back up. Corresponding
precipitation chances increase further inland as this occurs. In addition
to Gulf moisture...we should see some Pacific contributions of
moisture associated with Hurricane Odile as it rides up and over
ridge in cntl Mexico and eventually over southeast Texas during the Tuesday-Thursday
time period. Anticipate fairly decent chances of precipitation...much of
it probably welcome. Higher totals through the week will probably along
& south of I-10 where deeper moisture will reside. Cannot rule out
some locally heavy totals elsewhere with clustering, et cetera but don't
anticipate much of a widespread issue. Precipitable water values around 2" appear
to linger through next weekend so see no reason to exclude continued
scattered precipitation chances each day. As to when the next frontal boundary
arrives: European model (ecmwf) says around sept 22...GFS later. 47

&&

Marine...
winds/seas over the offshore waters have decreased overnight and
have let the scec expire. Otherwise will be keeping with forecast of
light east/northeasterly winds today with the direction becoming more east/southeasterly
tonight/tues. Speeds should pick up some during the week but not
enough for any caution/advisory flags is current thinking. 41

&&

Aviation...
spotty MVFR ceilings/visible this morning should mix out by middle/late morning-
ing. Otherwise VFR for the afternoon. As dewpoints slowly rise tonight/early
Tuesday morning we could see a return of (mostly) MVFR visible/ceilings during
the overnight hours. 41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 90 74 87 74 89 / 20 10 40 30 40
Houston (iah) 89 75 87 75 89 / 20 20 50 30 50
Galveston (gls) 87 80 87 79 86 / 30 30 60 50 50

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 7 am CDT this morning
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm.

&&

$$

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