Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
347 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Discussion...
a weak warm front was moving inland early this morning. The best
moisture axis was just east of the forecast area over the coastal
waters south...east...and inland of the Sabine. The main upper
level ridge was well to the south over the southern Gulf into
Mexico.

The models are fairly consistent in deepening the upper level
trough over The Rockies as it pushes into the plains later today
through Thursday. They do differ on the strength of the trough as
it moves into Texas Thursday afternoon and night. A consensus
keeps the best lift...dynamics...and instability over the northern
part of the state and the Southern Plains. However...southeast Texas should
experience a period of rain and thunderstorms as the southern end
of the trough and an associated cold front pushes across the
forecast area.

Good warm air and moisture advection will lead to isolated to
scattered convection today into early Thursday. Widespread rain
and thunderstorms will then occur ahead of the front Thursday
night. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) still are consistent in pushing the cold
front into the northwestern set of counties after midnight...and
then off the coast around or shortly after sunrise. Isolated
strong storms are possible with the main threat gusty winds and
minor flooding due to locally heavy downpours. For the most part
the models are forecasting the storms to move quickly enough to
keep the quantitative precipitation forecast under 1 inch for the event.

After the front moves through a couple of cool and dry autumn
days are in store for southeast Texas. Moisture return off of the Gulf
will begin either late Sunday or early Monday.

40

&&

Marine...
southeast winds have developed this morning as low pressure
continues to develop in the plains. Southerly winds today and
Thursday will support gradually building seas approaching moderate
levels. A cold front should push off the Upper Texas coast from late
Friday morning through the evening hours. A line of storms may be
possible with front as it pushes offshore. Strong northeast winds
may develop behind the front in the offshore waters Friday night into
Saturday morning. Small craft advisories may be needed during this
time for 20 knot winds and seas building to near 7 feet. These
conditions should quickly weaken late Saturday as high pressure
moves east of the area. Southeast winds may develop later on
Sunday.

39

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 92 76 92 68 83 / 10 10 40 70 10
Houston (iah) 90 77 91 74 83 / 30 10 30 60 10
Galveston (gls) 85 79 87 78 82 / 30 10 20 70 20

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
aviation/marine...39

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations