Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
537 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015
see 00z aviation discussion.
an active sub-tropical jet will keep skies overcast for much of
the next 24 hours. A weak disturbance coupled with a weak boundary
will bring scattered rain showers to the area after 09z. Ceilings will fluctuate
between MVFR and LIFR for the next 24 hours. Leaned toward the
more pessimistic nam12 for this taf package. 43
Previous discussion... /issued 309 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015/
cool temperatures...clouds and a slight chance of showers will remain the
norm into Wednesday before primary cold front finally pushes
through and clears things out for the latter half of the week.
Radar indicates a few showers over central Texas and into our far northern
counties late this afternoon...likely associated with subtle reinforcing
surface cold front. Will keep chance of light showers in the forecast
tonight and tomorrow...with better chance late in the day Tuesday
into early Wednesday morning as main front clears the coast.
Models consistent in finally clearing out the clouds and rain
chances Wednesday with sunny skies Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will
remain cool...yet steady...under cloudy skies through Wednesday
with clearing skies allowing temperatures to dip into the 30s Thursday
morning and especially Thursday night/Friday morning. At this time
expect temperatures will remain above freezing...but a few of the colder
spots up north will dip into the middle 30s with low/middle 40s near the
coast to start the day Friday. Clear and cool conditions are
expected to hold Saturday...with slight chance of rain returning to
the forecast late Sunday into early next week.
front remains stationary offshore with generally light north to northwest winds
currently at marine observation sites. Low clouds and visibilities from yesterday
not as common today with just some patchy lighter fog over the
marine area. Front pushes farther south Tuesday afternoon as high
pressure builds into North Texas...tightening the gradient and
increasing the winds some into the 10 to 15 knot range. A stronger
push of cold air and increase in winds expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday as reinforcing cold front pushes offshore. Should have
north to northeast winds in Small Craft Advisory range Tuesday night
and Wednesday with seas building into the 5 to 7 foot range
offshore. Winds relax for Thursday and Friday as high pressure
builds in and gradient relaxes.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 47 59 46 61 40 / 30 30 30 10 10
Houston (iah) 50 59 48 60 42 / 40 30 50 30 10
Galveston (gls) 56 61 54 61 49 / 30 40 60 50 20