Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
938 PM CDT Friday Apr 17 2015
just a quick update to clean up in wake of bowing mesoscale convective system finally
clearing the area. Situation remains active with moist SW flow and
main upper low remaining off to the west. This will keep scattered
thunderstorms in the forecast overnight and through tomorrow at least.
Flash flooding now greatest concern with many areas inundatedlate
this evening...and bayous and creeks rising. Any further rainfall
will certainly aggravate the situation. Surface outflow/effective
front has pushed off the coast...however elevated storms with rain
and hail remain a concern. Severe Thunderstorm Watch therefore will remain in
effect along coast and one row of counties inland through 07z.
Tornado Watch for Jackson and Matagorda also remains posted
through 07z as this area will remain closer to the surface based
instability lingering near the central Texas coast. Flash Flood Watch
will also remain in place area wide through at least tomorrow.
Previous discussion... /issued 634 PM CDT Friday Apr 17 2015/
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain developing across southeast Texas early this evening. Expecting all
taf site to see thunderstorms and rain within the next five hours (23z-04z) as the storm
complex moves eastward through the area. MVFR ceilings are likely with
the activity...and IFR ceilings/visibilities are possible with the
stronger thunderstorms and rain. It is possible this could extend past 04z...especially
from iah southward to gls. Some stabilization could occur during the
overnight hours and toward morning...and with daytime heating tomorrow
would expect to see more periods of shra/tsra. 42
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 66 78 63 83 59 / 80 60 20 20 10
Houston (iah) 68 79 65 84 63 / 90 60 20 20 20
Galveston (gls) 71 78 70 78 68 / 80 60 30 20 20
Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 8 am CDT Saturday for the following