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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
638 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Discussion...
12z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
heaviest weather is over with a lull expected through the late
morning. A near-stationary boundary laying within a moist and
unstable coastal environment that will likely provide the needed
low level focus to re-generate widely scattered afternoon showers
and isolated storm(s). Due to the random nature of convective re-
development...just going with vc this morning to comm the return
threat. Similar situation as this morning with weak steering flow
giving way to slow-moving strongest cells/clusters to produce high
rainfall rates. Frequent lightning and visibility-restricting high
rainfall are the main issues once/if convection re-fires. Periods
of morning MVFR...brief IFR...with the general trend becoming VFR
as drier air works in north of the boundary. 31

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 358 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/

Discussion...
showers/thunderstorms with very heavy and flooding rainfall in/around
the Houston metropolitan area continue to gradually work their way southward
towards portions of our coastal counties as a weak cold front slowly
works its way across the area. Rainfall with earlier storms across Harris
County (via the county's Flood Warning system) included 5.68 inches
in 1 1/2 hours on Greens Bayou at Highway 59...a 6.56 inch total at
Aldine Westfield...and a 5.40 inch total at I-45 and west Road. At one
point...hourly rates were as high as 4 to 5 inches along the beltway
8 and Highway 59 area. Currently...storm mergers along with high precipitable
water values support the threat for more locally heavy rainfall and
possible flooding through sunrise mainly between Highway 59 and the
coast. With the front moving slowly across the area during the day
today...any daytime heating and recovery from the overnight storms
would support additional shower and thunderstorm development. The
weak front is expected to meander back and forth across the area over
the weekend...so will continue to keep rain in the forecast with the
lower chances northwest and the higher values near the coast. Next
week's weather is going to depend on the strength/location of upper
level ridging centered to our west. Portions of our area look to be
on the eastern edge of the ridge which should allow for some mainly
daytime shower/thunderstorm development. 42

&&

Marine...
an approaching weak cold front will hang up near the coast today.
This near stationary boundary will serve as a focus for return
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Except within or in
the vicinity of maritime storms where winds and seas could quickly
become dangerous...general onshore winds will be light and seas
will be very low at or under two feet. 31

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 89 71 90 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 89 73 90 73 92 / 40 30 30 20 30
Galveston (gls) 87 78 89 78 89 / 50 30 40 30 30

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
aviation/marine...31

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