Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
610 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
00z aviation...southerly winds will subside with the loss of
heating around 2z. Expect another breezy day on Tuesday. Will see MVFR
ceilings again across northern tafs (cll, uts, cxo) later tonight
and early Tuesday. 33
Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/
benign pattern will remain established and bring near climatology
summertime conditions to the region through the weekend. A large
ridge of high pressure will increase over the southeast U.S. Through
the end of the week and build across much of the Gulf of
Mexico/southern US by the weekend. This high center will build/develop
westward into early next week. Although rain chances remain
sparse...models continue to paint light quantitative precipitation forecast over the area tomorrow
within deeper moisture fetch and will keep slight chance wording in
play for the afternoon. Still more uncertainty with rain chances
late this week and over the weekend...with models showing some sea
breeze activity Friday and Sat afternoon. Once again...will handle
with slight chance wording for now. All in all...somewhat quiet
weather pattern will remain the norm through at least the weekend.
onshore flow will continue through the week. Speeds will
be moderate...around 15 knots or 15 to 20 knots tonight and
Tuesday...then diminish somewhat later in the week and for the
weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the eastern Gulf.
Small craft should exercise caution will likely be needed later
tonight for at least the southwest waters 20 to 60 nm out.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 77 92 77 94 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
Houston (iah) 78 91 78 94 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 81 89 82 90 80 / 10 20 10 10 10
GM...small craft should exercise caution from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning for the following zones: waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60
nm...waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 nm...waters from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 nm.