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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1151 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016



Aviation...
cold front marching south and should reach cll around 08z...winds
though will pick up noticeably a few hours later. Winds between
15-00z should be gusty at 15-20kts gusting to 25-35kts. 950 and 850mb
winds quite Stout at 30-50kts with this providing for the stronger
gusts. Cirrus should continue to increase over the region during the
day. Winds relax in the evening at the sites...with the exception
of gls where winds will likely stay up all night.
45

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 907 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016/

Discussion...
did make some changes with the forecast...mainly with the winds for
tomorrow. Cold front continuing to move down from North Texas this
evening and we are seeing some rather strong wind gusts further
upstream along with some very low dewpoints (across the northern and
central plains). Based on these trends will go ahead with a red
flag warning for the County warning forecast area for tomorrow. However...before all is
said and done a Wind Advisory may also be necessary tomorrow as
well. 41

Previous discussion... /issued 545 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016/

Aviation...
VFR. A little cirrus moving in from the SW. South-southwest winds should
gradually relax tonight. Cold front in southeast OK and nearing ksps.
Expect the front to March south tonight and reach cll around
07-08z and iah 11z turning winds northerly and then getting
stronger and gustier an few hours later with the sun coming up.
Strong winds in the profile should mix down in the late morning
through afternoon hours and sustained winds of 15-18kts with gusts
25-30 will be likely.

45

Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016/

Discussion...
surface high pressure remains over the western Gulf and a weak
area of low pressure had developed east of Abilene along a slow
moving cold front. High pressure over the intermountain west will
move southeast and push the front across southeast Texas early Monday morning.
Colder and much drier air will move into southeast Texas behind the front.
Dry air aloft will likely mix to the surface and surface dew points could
fall into the teens and relative humidity values will plummet to below 25
percent. Northwest winds will also increase (nw winds at 925 mb of 30-40
kts will mix to the surface) in the wake of the front and
sustained speeds will approach Wind Advisory criteria...especially
west of a Madisonville to Houston to Freeport line. The
combination of strong northwest winds and low relative humidity values will set the
stage for dangerous fire weather conditions late Monday morning
through the late afternoon. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of southeast Texas in
elevated fire weather conditions with the northwest corner of the
area outlooked in critical conditions. More on this in the fire
weather section.

Conditions will remain cold and dry on Tuesday but winds should
be lighter as high pressure settles over the state. High pressure
will move east of the state by Wednesday afternoon and
temperatures are expected to begin to moderate. 500 mb heights
build and 850 mb temperatures warm and the second half of the work week
looks to remain dry but trend warmer. Southeast Texas is kind of caught
between the the strong upper ridge out west and deep upper trough
over the eastern U.S. With the flow aloft over southeast Texas remaining
highly amplified through Saturday. The flow aloft gets dampened
briefly by a weak shortwave next weekend in which the flow becomes
semi-zonal. The upper ridge will amplify once again late next
weekend with a northwest flow aloft redeveloping. Overall...the
weather pattern over the next 10 days looks dry with a gradual increase
in temperatures. 43

Marine...
light...variable overnight breezes just ahead of an early Monday
morning cold frontal passage. Northwest to north winds will
significantly strengthen to advisory levels shortly after the front
passes by...expect front to be off the coastline and across the
offshore waters between the hours of 5 and 8 am. All Bay/Gulf water
advisory conditions through the day...with a weakening of evening
winds to caution over the bays. Caution/advisory level offshore
winds will persist through Tuesday morning. High pressure expanding
in over the waters from south Texas will veer offshore winds more
west and then onshore Wednesday into Thursday. Lowering northern
Texas pressures will tighten the onshore gradient enough to possibly
create caution level S-SW winds late Thursday. A large high pressure
cell over the Great Lakes region will ensure light southeasterlies
lending to generally 2 to 4 foot sea heights. 31



Fire weather...
a very dry air mass behind monday's cold front will commence elevated
fire weather conditions. Expect average afternoon relative humidity values in the lower
20 percentile over the entire (non-coastal) forecast area. Northwest winds
will be between 15 to 20 miles per hour with frequent gusts to 25 miles per hour. Given the well
cured fuels across the region this will be the first time we have had these
ingredients of available fuel/strong winds/low relative humidity come together in nearly two
years. The last time we had a Fire Weather Watch over any part of the County Warning Area was
may 4th 2014. There is a possibility that the first red flag warning in over two
years will be issued before tomorrow morning...especially across the western
corridor counties where winds will be strongest within an air mass that may
fall to under 20 percent relative humidity. 31

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 35 58 34 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 40 60 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 46 60 42 57 51 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Monday for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small craft should exercise caution Monday evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Monday to midnight CST Monday
night for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
aviation/marine...45

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