Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
326 PM CDT sun may 3 2015
despite weak upper level divergence and increase in moisture...
radar remains quiet this afternoon. Precipitable water values decrease a bit
going into Monday so rain chances should remain low. Overnight low
temperatures will be trending warmer tonight as low level moisture increases.
An upper level trough will approach New Mexico on Tuesday and move
across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. A series of weak upper
level disturbances will move across southeast Texas on Tuesday/Wednesday aiding lift.
Upper level winds will become increasingly divergent and precipitable water values
peak around 1.7 inches so feel high end chance probability of precipitation are warranted.
Upper level ridging over the western Gulf will compete with an
upper level trough over The Rockies through next weekend. Feel
subsidence from the ridge will limit rain chances through
next Saturday but can't completely rule out some scattered precipitation...
especially over the western zones. Will carry chance probability of precipitation over the
west with slight chance toward the coast through the end of the
week. The second half of next week into next weekend will feature
warmer temperatures and increasing humidity. 43
a tight onshore pressure gradient between eastern Seaboard high
pressure and lowering Western Plains pressures will generate and
maintain a moderate southeasterly fetch throughout the week. This
fetch will strengthen to caution...possibly brief offshore
advisory...levels from early Tuesday through Wednesday. An eastern
Gulf higher swell will propagate westward into the local waters
Tuesday and pick up average high third sea heights by a couple of
feet going into middle week. Passing weak disturbances Tuesday and
Wednesday will increase the chance for developing showers with
isolated embedded storms. 31
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 63 83 64 81 67 / 10 10 10 40 30
Houston (iah) 63 83 67 82 69 / 10 10 10 40 30
Galveston (gls) 71 81 71 80 72 / 10 10 20 40 30