Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1124 PM CST Monday Dec 9 2013
06z taf discussion in aviation section below.
based on 05z observation...beginning to see IFR ceilings lift at kcll. Expect
this trend in ceilings to take over for the rest of the terminals as
cold front has pushed into the Gulf. Drier airmass just getting to
kcll where dewpoint is now 31 versus dewpoint of 40 at kiah.
Should see ceilings go quickly from IFR to VFR through 12z Tuesday.
Winds will also be increasing as pressure gradient tightens up.
Strongest winds will be along the coast. Rest of tomorrow should
have VFR ceilings and decreasing northerly winds.
Previous discussion... /issued 919 PM CST Monday Dec 9 2013/
expect the drizzle and light rain to end across the forecast area
as a shortwave trough pushes off to the northeast and drier air
pushes in from the northwest. Dewpoints have already dropped into
the middle 30s over College Station and Brenham. Expect the actual
temperatures to drop below freezing in these locations late this
evening or around midnight. Adjusted the hourly temperatures and
sky cover. The lingering clouds were keeping temperatures warmer
than earlier expected. The guidance and models begin to erode the
cloud cover after midnight and expect the overnight low
temperatures to then be reached toward sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 545 PM CST Monday Dec 9 2013/
00z taf discussion in aviation section below.
based on radar pockets of rain/dz will continue at least through
03-06z tonight along with IFR ceilings. 22z surface map has cold front
entering the area but really hard to tell exactly. Much drier air
is more back over the dfw metroplex so could take a bit for this
air to mix into the area. As such forecasting anticipated
clearing/lifting of ceilings tonight into tomorrow morning will be a
challenge. Expect a few ammendments to nail down the trends. Winds
should increase 15-20kts across the area with 20g30kts along the
coast. Should have VFR ceilings by 12z and then clearing after that.
Northerly winds persist tomorrow across the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 41 28 44 30 51 / 70 30 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 48 32 48 33 54 / 70 40 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 52 40 49 43 56 / 70 60 10 10 10
Texas...Wind Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for the following zones:
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.