Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1056 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015
retransmitted previous discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 1011 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015/
pesky cell that has generated a good amount of rain across northwest
parts of southeast Texas has sagged into Waller Colorado near Hempstead. It's
still producing 2-3"/hour rainfall rates but (at least short term)
indications are that it might be weakening. Still seeing streamers
feed into the area so still might be a player for the next few
Forecast-wise updated grids to match observation and also made a few more
tweaks...mainly to bump afternoon probability of precipitation up just a little. Concerned lingering
boundaries from this mornings activity along with 1.5-1.6" pws,
convective available potential energy 2000-3000 j/kg, -7 lifted indice's and any warming up to the low-middle
80s might trigger some additional scattered development. Forecast soundings
indicate potential for a few strong cells and from what we saw
this morning...some localized heavy downpours. Not all that
confident in the overall short term forecast as none of the models
(including hi res) have done particularly well last night or
this morning. But that's not uncommon this time of year here... 47
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 84 71 85 71 85 / 40 20 30 20 30
Houston (iah) 83 72 86 72 86 / 40 10 20 10 20
Galveston (gls) 81 74 81 75 82 / 20 10 20 10 10
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from High Island
to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 nm.