Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
620 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015
00z taf discussion in aviation...
overall expect VFR ceilings as winds decouple tonight with sea breeze
dissipating. Low level moisture should return tomorrow so could
see an isolated shower develop but confidence is low. Will leave out of
tafs for now. Sea breeze should develop again tomorrow with southeast
winds behind it in the afternoon and some high based cumulus.
Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015/
the dry airmass will begin to slightly modify later tonight as the
winds become more out of the southeast although the winds will
become light and help keep the change rate down until Monday.
Because of this...went with some higher overnight lows toward the
coastal counties but went with 60s in the northeastern counties.
Otherwise...the upper level ridge will build in as the warm front
moves inland on Monday and Tuesday. Some isolated showers or
thunderstorms will be possible right along and off the coast on
Monday as forecasted by the nam12...GFS...and European model (ecmwf). With the
strengthening ridge aloft...rain chances will drop to 10 percent
or less on Tuesday except for eastern Chambers and Liberty
counties. The rest of the week will likely experience daytime
highs in the upper 90s to around 100 and heat indices in the 100
to 107 range.
the light winds NE winds offshore will be come southerly and
increase later this week as high pressure develops over the
eastern Gulf and low pressure deepens across the south Central
Plains. Rain chances will remain low. 33
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 71 99 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 72 97 78 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 81 91 82 91 83 / 10 20 10 10 10