Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
954 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015
very dry airmass remains in place across the region this morning.
12z soundings from Corpus Christi and Lake Charles reported
precipitable water values near to under one inch... below the 25th
percentile for this time of year. Tweaked hourly temperatures and
dew points based on observations but no other changes made to the
forecast with this update. Expect afternoon temperatures to top
out in the low to middle 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast
under partly cloudy skies.
tail end of 500 mb trough stretching from the Great Lakes into North Texas
will bring some cloudiness to southeast Texas today...but don't think rain
chances are Worth mentioning.
Quick look at buoy & oil rig observations offshore show dewpoints
still in the middle/upper 60s. Guidance is suggesting a slower
moisture modification than yesterdays solutions so will go ahead and
trim probability of precipitation back for Sunday...but leave a 20% mention closest to
the coast should we see any isolated seabreeze activity.
Upper low seen water vapor imagery off the southeast la coast is still
forecast to retrograde westward in the next couple days. Latest data
depicts a trough axis generally extending from Arkansas to S Texas
Monday-Wednesday putting at least a portion of the County Warning Area on the more
favorable side for rain chances (higher chances along & east of
the Highway 59 corridor Tuesday/Wednesday west/ more available moisture).
Trough/low might slowly meander back east Thursday-Sat which would
reduce areal coverage but not entirely eliminate probability of precipitation during that
Overall confidence on positioning/details isn't all that high and
agree west/ surrounding offices in limiting precipitation chances
below superblend suggestions for now. 47
generally light onshore winds to persist across the coastal waters
the next several days as weak high pressure lingers to our east. A
slight chance of rain returns to the forecast early Sun morning as low
level moisture slowly deepens across the region. Rain chances will re-
main in the forecast into much of next week 41
not expecting to deviate from the VFR trends with the 12z package.
Low-level moisture is expected to slowly increase across southeast Texas the
next several days and we could start seeing lower ceilings/visible by late
Sun night/early Monday morning. 41
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 95 72 94 73 95 / 10 0 10 0 10
Houston (iah) 93 71 93 73 94 / 0 0 10 10 30
Galveston (gls) 90 79 90 79 89 / 0 10 20 20 30