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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1125 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

see 06z aviation discussion.


ceilings continue to lower across area taf sites. Forecast soundings are a
bit aggressive with regard to timing but overall are handling
trends fairly well and leaned toward a NAM/rap blend. At 04z...a
weak surface trough was developing east of Brownsville. A weak or
developing warm front extended NE from the low and low ceilings/fog
formed just north of the warm front. Water vapor imagery shows a
strong impulse over northern Mexico heading toward southeast Texas. The
disturbance should arrive early Sunday morning so tossed in a
tempo for rain showers between 12-16z. Am not carrying thunder in the taf
but some concern for thunderstorms and rain with k index values in the middle 30s. A
little subsidence in the wake of the disturbance should end precipitation
in the afternoon. Sea fog will be possible Sun night so more low
ceilings/fog for coastal taf sites. 43


Previous discussion... /issued 855 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015/


Seeing areas of dz/-ra across the area. These have been increasing
this evening. Very favorable isentropic lift setup for inland areas
into sun am. Have bumped probability of precipitation up to account for the ongoing
precipitation trends. Made a few adjustments to overnight temperatures. Will see
a very slow rise late tonight. Some fog is possible around
Matagorda Bay...but elsewhere do not expect much least
significant fog. May see sea fog begin late Sun afternoon along
the coast. 33


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 43 57 52 61 60 / 70 40 50 40 30
Houston (iah) 51 65 60 69 64 / 80 50 30 40 30
Galveston (gls) 54 66 61 68 62 / 70 50 30 30 20


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 3 am CST Sunday for
the following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport 20 to 60 nm.



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