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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
918 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

nothing new Worth adding to the previous discussions below as the
front moves through the area during the overnight hours. 42

Previous discussion...

updated aviation discussion.

latest surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from Bryan
to Madisonville to Kennard...slowly dropping south through the
northern part of the forecast area. This front will work its way
from north to south across the area tonight. Few showers with
front earlier have dissipated. Main effect of front will be for a
wind shift from southeast or variable to north then northeast.
Speeds should be modest behind the front. No precipitation
expected. Middle and High Deck should also clear out from north to
south later tonight and Saturday. 46

Previous discussion...

prefrontal trough forming over the northern County Warning Area...cll-uts-jas line
with a cold front nearing ing-trl line. Gusty north winds behind
the front but moisture change is marginal. The front should move
through southeast Texas tonight and usher in drier air that will lag the
frontal passage by 4-6 hours. A few sites along and south of the 59 corridor
may see some shallow patchy fog prior to frontal passage near sunrise. Dry
weekend on tap with surface high building over the state through
Saturday then shifting eastward on Sunday turning winds back to
the south and starting to pull that Gulf moisture back into the
region Sunday night. Northwest flow aloft Monday will drive another
stronger Pacific cold front southward across the Southern Plains
and into southeast Texas early Tuesday. Expecting a broken line of showers
and probably scattered thunderstorms to accompany the frontal passage but in
a nocturnal Low Cape environment and fairly progressive with storm
motion of 15-25 miles per hour. Very dry air flows in again in the wake of
the front but models maintain the upper low off the Southern California coast
with the trough over the eastern U.S filling in so the front
should push well offshore ending rain chances. Both the 12z
GFS/European model (ecmwf) try to interact a tropical wave with the frontal
boundary and trailing eastern U.S. Trough to produce a marginally
organized tropical system in the carribbean by Thursday-Saturday
of next week. Will probably be strongly sheared over the northern
Gulf so doesn't appear to be a concern yet for the northwest Gulf.

weakening winds just downstream of tonight's approaching weak
frontal boundary. This front is forecast to reach and be off the
coast during the pre-dawn Saturday hours. Light and variable
Friday evening breezes will back offshore by sunrise over average
1 to 3 foot seas. A light...slowly becoming onshore by
Sunday...weekend wind field will occur and maintain average 1 to 2
foot seas. Another weak frontal passage Tuesday will briefly turn
S-SW winds around to offshore through early Wednesday. Wednesday
and Thursday winds to become light easterly as high pressure
settles in over the western Gulf. The next frontal boundary may
reach the coast by this time next week...again introducing light
to moderate northerlies. 31


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 69 91 66 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 69 89 66 90 68 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 74 84 73 85 74 / 10 10 0 0 0


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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