Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
347 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014
skies have stayed cloudy across all of southeast Texas for most of
the day. There have been a few breaks in the clouds across eastern
areas. But not expecting the clearing trend to continue...with
cloudy conditions coming back where there are breaks this aft/eve.
Expecting slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow as NAM/GFS
forecast soundings do indicate some drying at the lower levels.
Tomorrow...have skies becoming partly cloudy tomorrow after.
On Monday...onshore winds return to the area and maximum temperatures will
likely make it into the lower 70s for a large portion of southeast Texas.
Model soundings indicate some clouds across the area...and have
again trended on the lower end of guidance to account for this.
There is a very slight chance of precipitation on Monday in a
association with a warm front that will move inland but chances
are too low to mention in the grids at this time.
The next major weather feature to impact southeast Texas is an upper level
trough currently digging into the SW U.S. A cold front is
expected to move through the area from Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon. The NAM...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) all agree with the
timing of the front. Models suggest the front being in the
northern part of the County Warning Area at 12z and to the coast by 18-21z.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along the
front and probability of precipitation may still need to be adjusted. Cooler and drier
conditions can be expected behind the front with lows falling
back into the 30s for some areas. The next front is expected late
High pressure briefly settling over the region tonight before moving
off to the east tomorrow. Winds/seas have decreased accordingly with
no more flags/advisories expected until maybe Monday night (as the gra-
dient tightens ahead of the next front). This boundary still forecast to
move into the coastal waters Tuesday afternoon. The very cold airmass behind
the front could produce wind gusts near/over gale force by Tuesday evening/
early Wednesday morning. 41
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 44 61 50 69 52 / 0 0 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 46 62 50 71 58 / 0 0 10 10 20
Galveston (gls) 52 61 55 68 61 / 10 10 10 10 20
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm.