Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
716 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Update...
see discussion for update.

&&

Discussion...
lowered probability of precipitation this evening as front pushes offshore. Kgls winds
have continued to veer and now have a northerly component to them.
New zones out shortly. 23

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 658 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/

Discussion...

See aviation.

Aviation...

An atypical Summer evening across southeast Texas with northerly winds across
most of the area and a frontal boundary near the coast. MVFR
ceilings are located near and north of uts and will have to watch
trends to see how far south they push tonight. Expect northerly
winds tomorrow and little chance of inland convection. 33

Previous discussion... /issued 358 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/

Discussion...
surface boundary currently at or above an east-West Line from Palacios to
Sargent to about 20nm south of gls...with the bulk of the re-
developing precipitation along the western half of the line. Outflows/sea-
breeze also abounding...but it does appear that the subsident
airmass in the wake of the overnight activity is holding over
most inland locations so far. Will keep with the trend of the
higher probability of precipitation in proximity to the surface boundary through the evening/
overnight hours...but lower the overall numbers.

Models in decent consensus with the front pushing offshore by
tomorrow. Slightly drier air/light offshore winds should keep
things dry across most of southeast Texas...but am a bit loathe to drop
probability of precipitation completely for coastal zones/waters for tomorrow (during
the day). The boundary is prognosticated moves back onshore tomorrow
night into sun and have kept with the idea of increasing probability of precipitation
for this time frame. Probability of precipitation should evolve into a generally day-
time heating/seabreeze driven precipitation pattern for the first half
of next week with the upper trough axis lingering just east of
the region. We should see lower probability of precipitation/warmer temperatures by the latitude-
ter part of next week as the ridge builds in from the east.

As for temperatures...a somewhat atypical start for August courtesy
of this weak front. Between that and the clouds/pcpn...these
lower than normal temperatures expected to persist through the week
end before rebounding the start of next week. 41

Marine...
a surface trough extending from la across the Upper Texas coast
will persist through the weekend and serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms
(some strong cells possible at times). Winds will generally be
light and variable (dependent on position of meandering boundary)
and seas will remain <3ft. A more prevalent onshore flow will
resume early to middle parts of next week. 47

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 70 92 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
Houston (iah) 71 91 73 92 74 / 10 10 20 30 20
Galveston (gls) 77 89 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 30 20

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...23

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations