Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015
06z taf discussion in aviation section.
radar shows light rain moving out of the area. Suspect conditions
will dry out 07-08z tonight. Ceilings will be a challenge as rain
moves out and ceilings begin to lift but could very well lower
since there is still quite a bit of low level moisture. Warm front
has pushed a bit inland from latest surface analysis from mainly c Texas
back towards gls. North of the boundary low ceilings exist...while
south of the boundary ceilings may lift and scattered out to VFR.
Question will be if fog fills in where ceilings lift. East-southeast winds
may be too much for fog to develop. Should have a lull in precipitation
until cold front pushes through. Front has reached the Texas
Panhandle and should push through kcll around 21z and Houston
terminals around 23-00z Monday. Then off the coast around 00-03z Monday.
Winds will be gusty behind the front and ceilings should improve.
Previous discussion... /issued 917 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/
the warm front was moving slowly up the coast and through the
southwestern set of counties in the forecast area. The middle and
upper level ridge has moved off to the east and areas of light
rain has developed over most of southeast Texas at 9 PM. The latest
high resolution models have backed off a bit on rainfall coverage.
Because of this...updated the probability of precipitation and weather across the area for
the remainder of tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 550 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/
taf discussion in aviation section...
area radar are showing rain moving in from the west associated
with lead short wave trough moving through Texas on water vapor
imagery. Should see MVFR ceilings hold the next 6 hours and as rain
develops think most terminals will hit IFR. Rain should be moving
out 08z-10z with ceilings back to MVFR levels. Should be a break in
rain for late morning into early afternoon with winds turning southeast
to SW. Rap/hrrr runs seem to be good with this timing. Cold front
should push through kcll around 21z and then reach Houston
terminals around 00z Monday. May be another round of rain with the
front. Expect ceilings to improve with frontal passage.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 58 68 35 50 36 / 50 60 10 0 0
Houston (iah) 58 72 38 52 37 / 50 70 20 0 0
Galveston (gls) 58 67 41 51 43 / 40 50 30 0 0
GM...gale watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for the
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport 20 to 60 nm.