Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1228 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
will be watching for possible rain showers/thunderstorms and rain development this afternoon through
early this evening due to daytime heating and any interaction with boundaries
generated from this morning's activity. Will also be monitoring a southward
moving storm complex this evening coming out of northeast Texas that
should weaken and dissipate before it gets close to our area. Could
see some development near the coast again very early tomorrow morning...
and have gone with some vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity for taf sites near that area. There
is also a chance some MVFR visibilities could be seen again overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 1018 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/
had some showers and thunderstorms this morning...some with heavy
downpours and frequent lightning. These have diminished somewhat
and are moving slowly toward the southwest...but with daytime
heating should see coverage increase once again as we go through
the afternoon. Boundaries left over from morning convection...and
Bay and sea breezes...will act as focii for new activity. Should
be mostly over coastal two tiers of counties...but cant rule out
isolated storm father inland. 46
Previous discussion... /issued 435 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/
with an upper level high pressure area centered near the 4-corners
to the west...and an upper low near the mouth of the Mississippi
River to the east...southeast Texas will be under a northeasterly
flow aloft once again today. A weak surface boundary located over
southern Louisiana extended westward into the eastern counties
north of Interstate 10 and east of Interstate 45. The boundary was
rather diffuse but at 4 am looked to be located between kbpt and
kjas to between kuts and klfk. The slightly drier air to the north
of this boundary was picked up by the models. All of these
factors should help provide for the development of thunderstorms
A consensus of the models shows that the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be near and off the coast this morning into
the early afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening then
should see better chances over the inland areas mainly from the
Highway 59 corridor to the coast. Storm motion will generally be
from east-northeast to west-southwest...although mesoscale-scale
processes may throw a wrench into that equation. As occurred
yesterday...strong gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will be
possible in the stronger storms.
With the upper low shearing out over the coastal waters on
Thursday and Friday...rain chances will become isolated and the
temperatures will become the main focus. Upper 90s are possible
over the far inland areas both days but will become more common
over the weekend through Monday. Some of the guidance is
suggesting that the far inland areas may reach to around 100
during this period.
By around Tuesday of next week...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) were digging an
upper trough from the Great Lakes to the northern Gulf Coast. Both
models push a cold front southward and backdoor the front into at
least the northeastern counties of the forecast area on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Kept isolated thunderstorm chances and slightly
cooler daytime temperatures in place for both days.
seabreezes in the afternoon and landbreezes in the morning are
expected again today and tomorrow. Upper level low near miss river
Delta fills and shifts west slowly today/tomorrow. This should
expand towards the Upper Texas coastal waters resulting in a slight
increase in coverage for showers and thunderstorms. Then upper
level ridge dominates the weather and the southerly flow continues
albeit with a slight increase in speeds for Friday and Saturday.
No scec or Small Craft Advisory conditions expected throughout the forecast period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 97 76 99 76 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
Houston (iah) 96 76 98 77 95 / 30 20 30 10 20
Galveston (gls) 91 80 93 80 92 / 30 20 30 10 20