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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
355 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Discussion...
a stationary boundary draped across central Texas...scattered
thunderstorms firing along it over sjt and fwd's forecast areas.
It's difficult to discern whether there is an existing pre-frontal
trough just downstream of the stationary boundary analyzed somewhere
between Waco and the dfw metroplex. Nwp ensemble backs the 594
Dam Ridge off and centers over The Big Bend/desert SW by late
Tuesday. With a predominant northwest middle-upper flow pattern along the
western leg of the developing eastern Canada/eastern Continental U.S.
Trough...the synoptic boundary should slowly sag into the far
northern reaches of our County Warning Area through tomorrow afternoon. There is
a chance that downstream convective outflow boundaries (along the
southern edge of cold pools propagating from NE Texas storms) will
provide the required focus/lift needed in generating early to middle
day convection. The scene will become a bit muddled from tomorrow
on through Thursday as daily convective behavior will strictly be
driven in the smaller mesoscale/Micro scale(s). More overcast and
frequent periods of rain will aid in regulating late week daily
temperature extrema into the upper 80s to around 90f.

By Thursday...relatively drier middle-week profiles will saturate up
to past 2 inch precipitable waters and whatever is left of the very diffuse
synoptic boundary will waver somewhere over the southern half of
the forecast area. Rain/storm chances will increase Thursday and
Friday and be dependent upon the southern and western extent of a
series of shortwave disturbances passing across the arklatex region.
As of now...the higher positive vorticity advection and more favorable upper levels (slightly
better diffulence)...peg Thursday/Friday as the highest precipitation probability days.
Rain chances remain high going into the weekend...especially in
the vicinity of a near-coastal weak surface (inverted) trough.
Again...periods of rain will be driven by the smaller scale so
timing will needed to be adjusted on a moving scale. The large
scale/background appears favorable for a more wet middle to late week
..from the near-saturated unstable forecast soundings to the better
upper diffulence. 31

&&

Marine...
the surface high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will keep onshore winds in place for most of the work week. The
models were pushing a front into the Upper Texas coastal plains by
around Friday. There is some uncertainty on how far south the front
will push. For now went with the consensus of pushing a weak boundary
off the coast on Saturday. Any offshore winds are expected to quickly
swing back around to out of the southeast by Saturday night. 40

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 76 96 75 96 74 / 30 30 20 20 20
Houston (iah) 77 95 75 95 75 / 30 30 20 20 20
Galveston (gls) 81 91 80 90 81 / 20 30 20 20 20

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/40

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