Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1121 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

see aviation for 06z taf issuance.


no changes to previous forecast reasoning with VFR conditions
expected through the period. Scattered clouds will return to the
region on Friday as high pressure moves east and onshore winds
begin to bring Gulf moisture back to the region. 38


Previous discussion... /issued 957 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014/

no significant changes with the short term forecast. One more
chilly morning until friday's onshore winds draw up Gulf moisture.
Weak middle to upper level ridging centered from northern Mexico into
the western Gulf will influence near term subsidence/mid-level
warming. The last weekend of November will have subsequent day-
to-day warming into the (unseasonably warm) average middle to
upper 70s under more cloudiness and higher humidity levels. 31

Previous discussion... /issued 520 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014/

see aviation for 00z taf discussion.

VFR through the period. Winds will remain light overnight across
inland areas and pick up out of the southeast by middle to late
morning. Increasing moisture will allow low level clouds to begin
to develop across the region but MVFR ceilings are not expected before
the end of the current taf period. 38

Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014/

a beautiful Thanksgiving today with sunny skies and highs in the
60s. Onshore flow will return tomorrow though thanks to surface
high pressure moving off to the east. The return of southeast
winds will also allow temperatures to climb along with an increase
in cloud cover. Temperatures will approach 80 in some locations
this weekend thanks to high pressure at 850 mb moving to the
southeast allowing 850 winds to turn from the southwest and 850
temperatures to near 13 degrees c. On Sunday a weakness at 500 mb
will approach the area from the west. Moisture values will return
to near normal but moisture will be confined to the lower levels.
Forecast soundings are hinting at light drizzle or rain (if any)
with the passage of the upper level weakness.

At the same time Sunday a potent shortwave will push east across
the Pacific northwest bringing another cold front southwards. The
front is forecasted to reach the area Monday evening. Moisture
ahead of the front is not very impressive (pwats ~1.00") with very
little to no instability. This will keep rain chances relatively
low. The chance of rain will continue into Tuesday morning thanks
to weak upglide. The upper level flow is mostly zonal though so
the front should wash out fairly quickly Wednesday morning. 23

high pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will maintain light east
winds over the coastal waters tonight. The high will continue to
drift east on Friday with southeast winds developing and
increasing throughout Friday. Moderate to occasionally strong
southeast winds will prevail through Sunday morning. The pressure
gradient will relax on Sunday night and Monday as a weak cold
front enters the state. The front will clear the coast on Monday
night with a light to moderate northeast wind developing on
Tuesday. High pressure will move east of the region next Wednesday
with onshore winds redeveloping. 43

the month of November has been below average across southeast
Texas with temperatures 4 to 7 degrees below normal (1981 -
2010). How cold is this historically though? The coldest November
on record for the city of Houston was back in 1976 with an average
monthly temperature of 51.8. The tenth coldest November on record
for the city of Houston was in 1992 with an average monthly
temperature of 56.8. The current average temperature for this
November is 56.7 degrees f (through the 26th). Even though today
will be below normal...the last three days of the month will
likely average above normal. This means that this November will
likely not finish in the top ten coldest novembers for the city of
Houston. Records for the city of Houston go back to 1889. 23


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 42 69 57 77 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 42 70 57 78 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 54 68 62 73 64 / 0 10 10 10 10


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations