Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1152 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014
see the 18z aviation discussion below.
the stationary/slow moving warm front was located right along the
Upper Texas coast at 17z. The latest high resolution models keep
the front along the coast through the afternoon. However...an
analysis of the last few hours of the surface observations shows a
weak surface low forming in far south Texas. If this system can
stay together and move up the coast...the warm front may move a
bit further inland. For now...like the scenario for the frontal
boundary to stay near or just inland of the coast this afternoon
and evening. As an upper level shortwave trough moves across the
state on Friday morning...the frontal boundary will then move off
the coast and northerly winds should affect most of the sites.
Confidence levels in the forecast is medium given the various
The impacts will likely be IFR to LIFR conditions through tonight.
MVFR ceilings should develop for at least a few hours this
afternoon over most of the sites. However...IFR to LIFR will
develop around or shortly after 00z. Given the very moist airmass
moving over the cool Gulf waters near the coast...sea fog may
become an issue over at least kgls...klbx...and khou between 03z
and 06z. If the fog develops...there is a chance these conditions
will linger through Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible Friday morning as the shortwave trough moves overhead.
Previous discussion... /issued 907 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
for the update...trimmed probability of precipitation/quantitative precipitation forecast across northern parts of southeast Texas
for the rest of the day based on latest obs/trends/guidance. Think
bulk of precipitation will be situated closer to the coast where warm
front should be situated. Still expect coverage to rapidly expand
overnight with upper impulse approaching from the west. 47
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 64 52 55 46 58 / 10 90 80 10 0
Houston (iah) 69 57 62 46 60 / 40 80 80 20 10
Galveston (gls) 69 61 66 50 58 / 60 80 80 20 10