Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
332 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016
surface analysis at 21z this afternoon pretty much indicates that the
frontal boundary has dissipated and return flow from the Gulf has
increased. Surface dewpoints have increased back into the 50s for much
of southeast Texas this afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Winds should
be rather light overnight so may get more patchy fog to develop
for the morning hours of Sunday.
Water vapor imagery shows 2 short wave troughs...one over The
Rockies about to move into the plains with the second back over
the desert SW. The first wave has initiated Lee troughing which
has increased southerly boundary layer flow from the Gulf. This
wave should pass well north of the area tomorrow but the second
wave should move over Sunday night into Monday. Synoptic models
are in pretty decent agreement with timing of this wave. Models
also keep the majority of rain chances well NE of southeast Texas through
the arklatex to tenn. Forecast will keep some 20/30 probability of precipitation going for
isolated showers and thunderstorms but rain chances really look
minimal. Instability gets up to maybe 1000 j/kg so could get a
decent storm but again coverage will be more to the northeast of
the area. A weak front will push through late Monday as this wave
passes but may only bring low temperatures on Tuesday down to the low 50s
or still well above normal for this time of year.
After Tuesday the upper level pattern becomes a bit more
progressive. Deep trough now over New England moves east with a
broad trough replacing it middle week. Ridging over the west U.S.
Begins to move east middle week and builds over Texas by thur/Fri.
Another shortwave trough moves across the plains for next weekend
but the front is rather weak and doubtful it reaches southeast Texas.
Overall this pattern should keep rain chances out of the forecast.
It will also support temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for middle February.
the weak frontal boundary that moved into the area this morning has
weakened faster than previously thought (or was a bit more shallow).
Onshore winds should resume across the area this evening and on into the
overnight hours. These light/moderate southeast winds will persist into Sun
night. An upper level disturbance moving in from the west will produce-
uce light/brief offshore winds on Monday with a weak backdoor front Tuesday
night giving US a more easterly flow through Wednesday. No caution/advisories
forecast for the next several days. 41
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 54 74 57 74 50 / 10 10 20 20 0
Houston (iah) 53 74 59 75 52 / 10 20 20 30 0
Galveston (gls) 57 72 61 71 56 / 10 20 20 30 10