Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
650 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Post-frontal VFR. North breezes becoming light and variable
through late morning...light easterlies tomorrow afternoon. 23z
frontal boundary positioned between the city and the coastline. A
25 degree dew point difference over the 30 mile distance between
sgr (22 %rh) and lbx (54 %rh). Areawide sky clear once this front washes
out over the next couple of hours. 31


Previous discussion... /issued /

front has behaved pretty much as expected this's now
held up right along the coast. A large range of dew points being
observed at this hour ranging from the upper 20s across north parts of
southeast Texas to middle 70s at the coast. Rh's have fallen to around 10% at
some locations but luckily wind speeds have been below red flag
criteria. We're also seeing some record highs falling right now at
gls & iah (hou is getting close) as drier atmos is easier to heat
up. Edge of the drier air should move off the coast later tonight.

Pleasant morning temperatures on Thursday will quickly heat up in the late
morning and afternoon hours. Record highs are again Worth
watching on Wed:
gls 86/2012
hou 93/1954
iah 92/1954
cll 95/1910

Should have benign weather into early next week with temperatures & fire weather
issues being primary weather challenges. A good 25-35 degree diurnal
temperature range is anticipated the with little cloud cover and fairly
dry airmass persisting (another reinforcement still expected this

Pattern change still in the works early next week as upper ridge
flattens & passes off to the east. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly
with the approach of a western trough early to middle next week. This
along with the return of Gulf moisture in the llvls should bring a
decent shot of precipitation to the region Wednesday-ish...fingers
crossed. 47


the cold front will move off the coast later tonight. Easterly winds
will eventually develop over the coastal waters by Wednesday. The
models were still increasing the easterly wind speeds to around 15
knots and possible into the 15 to 20 knot range over the upcoming
weekend into early next week. With the long-lived easterly fetch...
am expected seas to increase over the weekend and into early next
week. 40


Fire weather...
elevated fire weather conditions have developed over the far
inland counties. Relative humidity values have fallen to between
10 and 15 percent and winds have occasionally gusted to around 15
miles per hour. On Tuesday and Wednesday most inland County locations will
likely experience relative humidity values falling to between 10
and 15%...with those east of Highway 59 falling from 20 to 35
percent. Conditions should begin to ease on Friday and over the
weekend as slightly more humid airmass arrives across the area. 40


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 57 95 61 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 58 93 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 72 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 0


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations