Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
959 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Discussion...
lots of high clouds are spreading across southeast Texas this evening
from the severe thunderstorms across the western parts of the state.
A lone storm in Houston County is expected to dissipate over the next
hour or two.
Current forecast looks to be on track. 42
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 703 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Discussion...
00z aviation discussion below.
Aviation...
an unchanged very moist lower few thousand foot layer will have
areawide IFR ceilings (isolated lifr) forming shortly after
midnight. There will be periodic visibility-restricting haze/br just
before sunrise...locally under a mile over more rural hubs.
Conditions will improve to VFR from 13z through 17z...east-veering-
southeast near 10 knots afternoon breeze with a thicker high overcast
from anticipated western Texas thunderstorm (anvil) cirrus blow-off. 31
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Discussion...
radar quiet so far this afternoon but reluctant to pull The Plug on the
mention of precipitation for this evening. We should be reaching convective
temperatures shortly.
Otherwise not a lot of changes with the going forecast of mainly afternoon/
early evening precipitation these next few days. Weak upper ridging coupled
with shortwaves from the west and this warm/moist airmass that has
settled over the region being the main factors. This pattern looks
to stick around through the weekend...possibly until the middle of
next week or so. At that time...model consensus of the upper level
flow begins to differ. European model (ecmwf) a bit slower (but stronger) with this
next upper trough than the GFS for next weds/thurs. At this time...opting to
keep with GFS as it has been verifying better of late. 41
Marine...
surface high pressure located towards the east will begin to weaken
allowing winds to shift more eastwards. Low pressure in West Texas
though will allow for moderate onshore flow to continue through the
weekend. By Tuesday night the pressure gradient will begin to tighten
as low pressure forms over the southern planes. This will produce
slightly higher tides late next week. 23
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 72 90 70 90 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
Houston (iah) 72 90 71 89 71 / 10 20 10 20 10
Galveston (gls) 75 83 73 84 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Discussion...42
aviation/marine...31
