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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1040 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

an established northeast to easterly flow pattern per the synoptic
positioning of the eastern Canadian high. A backing VAD wind profile
will regulate how much of an influence the very dry southeastern
U.S. Air mass has on the region through Friday. General middle-level
steering flow appears to favor a continued east or north direction
that will maintain near inch precipitable waters over eastern Texas over the
next couple of days. Thus...ample sun with ongoing average middle to
upper 50 dew point readings that will equate to sub 50% afternoon
rh's through the end of the work week. Western upper ridge axis
builds eastward that will inhibit any mentionable rain chances
through middle next week. 31


Previous discussion... /issued 450 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/

dry/quiet weather expected to persist through the rest of the week with
no significant changes until late in the upcoming weekend. Currently
seeing scattered echoes on radar (likely virga) associated with shortwave
energy out over West Texas trying to move in this direction. Not really
expecting this activity to hold together as it moves into a much drier
airmass (over southeast tx) today/tomorrow. Otherwise surface high pressure
lingering over the eastern U.S. Will keep the east/northeasterly low/middle level
flow that has been in place in place a bit longer. Forecasts in good
agreement with the return of return flow sun then becoming more
entrenched by Monday. However...still a bit wary concerning real
significant moisture return until maybe Tuesday.

The middle/extended forecast models remain somewhat unsettled with the
track/development of the next longwave upper trough. European model (ecmwf) which had
previously indicated a strong well defined upper low moving across
southeast Texas has backed off quite a bit with this last run...but no major
changes with the GFS with that regard. It keeps a flat near zonal/
slightly southwesterly upper flow in place...with the added bonus of a tropical
system in the NE gulf(!?). Differences also noted with timing of
the next cold front. European model (ecmwf) a bit faster with Tuesday frontal passage and GFS
slower with a late Wednesday one. Will split the diff and keep with 20%
probability of precipitation for both Tuesday/Wednesday at this time. 41


very quiet across the area this morning. Light NE to calm winds with
only cirrus spreading into the region. Some patchy mifg is possible
though not likely at cxo/lbx so for now have held off on any mention
there but will monitor closely. Expect that light NE winds this
morning will slowly increase to 5-8 kts and gradually veer to the
east and lessen late this afternoon...except along the immediate
coast where winds will be 5-10 knots stronger. 45


winds have held up overnight and seas slowly building. Have
hoisted an Small Craft Advisory for the 20-60nm waters and scec for nearshore and
Matagorda Bay area today and this evening. Winds should generally
run 15-20 knots with seas 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-7 feet
offshore. Winds relaxing Thursday as high pressure slowly weakens
and short wave approaches from the northwest. The NE flow regime more or less
stays in place through Saturday before winds turn around and
increase from the south on Monday (scec a good bet monday) before
a weakening front is outrun by the upper level support and turns
winds back to the northeast or east Wednesday. 45


Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 82 57 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (iah) 83 57 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (gls) 79 67 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 10


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.




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