Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1040 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
a synoptic overview at 7 am for the surface showed a low near
kmwl with a warm front extending from the low to the lower Sabine
and a cold front extending from the low to The Big Bend. Surface
dewpoints across southeast Texas were in the 72 to 76 range. A shortwave
trough was moving eastward across North Texas and could be seen on
water vapor and was picked up well with the short range models.
Scattered showers were trying to fill in ahead of the cold front
at 10 am.
The models were in good agreement with moving the surface low
eastward across far northern areas of the forecast area later this
afternoon. There were some differences on rainfall chances and
coverage during the afternoon. The nambufr soundings forecasts
precipitable water/S of 2 to 2.2 inches...indicating some potential for locally
heaveir rainfall. There was an inverted v profile on the kiah and
khou forecast soundings this afternoon. This is due mainly to the
better heating opportunities during the late morning to early
afternoon. However...the cloud cover may be enough to help temper
the heating. Would expect any stronger storms to develop more over
the central areas where heating will be better this afternoon. A
consensus of the models shows isolated to scattered showers
occurring over the northern counties through midday and then
thunderstorms over the north and pushing slowly southeastward
during the afternoon.
Tweaked the probability of precipitation and weather today with better chances over the
northwestern half of the forecast area...mainly along and west of
the Highway 59 corridor. Because of the expected cloud cover...
lowered high temperatures slightly as well.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 92 72 90 70 92 / 50 40 20 10 20
Houston (iah) 93 75 90 72 91 / 40 50 40 30 20
Galveston (gls) 91 80 88 79 88 / 20 30 40 30 20