Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1045 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014
morning forecast update...
cold front has pushed into the Gulf this morning with much drier
air filtering into the region. Expect dewpoint temperatures to drop into
the 40s with relative humidity in the afternoon near 25-30 percent. Winds will be
gusty to around 20kts so there will be an elevated fire danger for
the area mainly west and SW of Houston. Main forecast update did
adjust cloud cover for ongoing trends as well as temperatures. Maximum temperatures
may be a degree or two cooler across the area than previous
forecast given cold advection and gusty winds.
Made some minor tweaks to the marine forecast with winds increasing
started the Small Craft Advisory an hour earlier. Winds continue to blow pretty hard
this afternoon and evening with winds in the profilers/models
showing sustained winds around 20 knots gradually diminishing
Saturday morning. For the Gulf waters extended the Small Craft Advisory to 15z but
the nearshore waters may drop off sooner.
Most of the area observation showing clear skies or some lingering cirrus from
the mesoscale convective system moving through south Texas. Winds have been a little slower
to come up but as temperatures near 70 degrees between 16-17z winds
should ramp up abruptly with the gusty north winds. Winds do drop
off tonight and veer to the northeast.
A strong cold front will move through the area this morning allowing
cooler and drier conditions across the region. In our southwestern
areas this afternoon minimum relative humidity values will be in the lower 20%
range with winds approaching 15 kts. This in combination with a dry
second half of October will lead to elevated fire weather
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 74 40 65 42 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 77 45 67 43 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 77 56 65 56 71 / 10 0 0 0 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 am CDT
Saturday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Small craft should exercise caution until 3 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from High Island
to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 am CDT
Saturday for the following zones: waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.