Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 am HST Wednesday Jul 23 2014
drier and locally breezy trade wind weather will prevail across the
state through the next few days. Passing showers will affect mainly
windward and mountain areas. The islands may experience slightly
weaker trade winds by the weekend and an increase in showers towards
the later part of the weekend into early next week.
trade wind weather prevails across the islands early this
morning...with passing low clouds and showers affecting windward and
mountain areas at times. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings
continue to reveal a somewhat unstable and moist air mass in the
island vicinity. Early morning satellite imagery also showed areas
of low clouds east of the state. These low clouds will reach the
islands through rest of the morning...bringing more showers. At
least the dew point readings across the reporting stations are still
exhibiting a good downward trend...compared to 24 hours ago. A
surface high pressure will persist far north of the islands...and
will continue to supple trade winds to the state. Winds have already
strengthen a bit compared to 24 hours ago...and should trend
slightly upward later today. Latest forecast models still indicate a
drier air mass will spread over the state later today...while weak
upper level ridging develops over the islands. Therefore atmospheric
conditions will become more stable with less moisture as the day
progresses. Expect typical drier Summer trade wind weather to
return through the next few days...with passing low clouds and
showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. Big Island Lee
areas will see afternoon and evening clouds and showers.
Latest forecast models indicate the surface high pressure far north
will weaken and move east by the weekend. An increase in low level
moisture over the islands from the east is also expected towards the
later part of the weekend...with an upper level jet passing over the
state. This will result in the easing of the trades over the islands
by the weekend...and a possible boost to the rainfall to the
state...mainly for the windward areas by the later part of the
weekend into early next week.
a Small Craft Advisory /sca/ remains in effect for the typically
windy waters around The Big Island and Maui due to fresh to locally
strong trade winds. Winds will peak later today and Thursday...then
decline slightly towards the weekend to near Small Craft Advisory levels across those
typically windy coastal areas.
No significant swells are seen for the upcoming week. The biggest
surf will from trade wind swell along east facing shores. See the
collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast for Oahu /srdhfo/
for more details.
VFR conditions will prevail for all sites...though brief MVFR
ceiling conditions due to the passing low clouds may affect windward
and Mauka areas. Lee areas of The Big Island may also experience
brief MVFR ceiling conditions in the afternoon and evening hours.
Airmet for low level turb in the Lee of the terrain for the smaller
islands will continue due to the moderate trade winds.
Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM HST Thursday for the pailolo
and alenuihaha channels...Maalaea Bay and waters south of The Big