Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
625 am HST Monday Aug 31 2015
increasing northerly over the islands today with showers favoring
windward and mountain areas. Hurricane Ignacio is sill forecast to
pass northeast of the state today through Wednesday. Periods of
breezy and wet weather are expected with locally heavy rain
possible during its passage. Once Ignacio moves away from the
islands...light southerly winds are expected for the later part of
winds are expected to increase over the islands today...as Hurricane
Ignacio east of the state continues to track northeast. As
expected...clouds increased a bit over the windward coastal waters
and are bringing more showers to the islands...mainly windward
areas. In fact...moisture along the periphery of Ignacio is now
spreading west...and may reach the islands later today. Thus expect
passing clouds and showers to continue to affect the state
throughout the day.
Latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center still kept
Ignacio on a fairly steady northwest track...with the center passing
northeast of the main Hawaiian islands today through Wednesday. As
the system tracks northwest...expect moderate northeast winds to
turn north tonight...then becoming westerly late Tuesday into
Wednesday...with stronger local breezes over the areas at times.
Moisture from the system will also spread across the
state...resulting in an increasing chance of rain for the area
through Wednesday. Air mass will be unstable enough for locally
heavy rain to develop. For the latest details on Hurricane
Ignacio...please continue to monitor forecast from the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
As Ignacio departs the islands to the northwest by the second half
of the week...weak southerly winds are expected across most
of the island chain as a surface trough develops west of the state.
Winds will be light enough to allow widespread sea breezes to
develop during the day. Forecast models also show tropical moisture
associated with Ignacio may linger in the island vicinity. With the
available moisture...the chance for showers across the state will
remain elevated. In fact...locally heavy downpours are possible with
convection developing in the afternoon and evening over the islands.
mainly VFR conditions are expected for all sites...though passing
low clouds and showers may bring MVFR conditions for the windward
sites at times. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorm mainly
along windward and northern coastal waters. No airmets are in effect.
a high surf warning remains in effect for the east facing shores of
The Big Island...as well as windward Haleakala coast of Maui...while
a high surf advisory remains in effect the east facing shores of
Molokai...Oahu...Kauai and rest of Maui...as swells from Ignacio
spread across the islands from the east. The advisory may need to be
upgraded to a warning as the situation develops.
Winds associated with Ignacio may bring near small craft wind
conditions to windward coastal waters. Moreover...seas associated
with Ignacio will spread across the island vicinity...bringing small
craft seas conditions for windward coastal waters as well as
kaiwi...pailolo and alenuihaha channels.
high surf advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai windward-
Oahu koolau-Olomana-Molokai-Maui windward west-Maui Central
High surf warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for windward Haleakala-
south Big Island-Big Island north and east.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai northwest
waters-Kauai windward waters-Oahu windward waters-Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County windward waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-
Big Island windward waters-Big Island southeast waters.