Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 am HST Tuesday Jul 29 2014
high pressure far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the islands. Showers carried by the
trades will affect mainly windward and Mauka areas for the next
several days. A surge in moisture from the southeast could bring an
increase in showers and more humid conditions late in the week.
fair weather continues over the islands under moderate trade winds
early this morning. Both satellite imagery and radar data revealed
not much low clouds and precipitation in the island
vicinity...though there are some low clouds scattered across the
area. These clouds may bring a few showers to mainly windward and
mountain areas through the rest of this morning. Early morning Lihue
and Hilo soundings exhibited little changes compared to Monday
afternoon...which is expected as overall weather pattern remains
quite static in the island vicinity.
A surface high that provides the trade winds will remain nearly
stationary far northeast of the state through the week. The
tightening of the pressure gradient across the islands due to low
pressure well to our south will keep moderate trade winds over the
state. Winds may locally be breezy. Forecast models still suggest a
rather dry air mass to persist in the island vicinity for the next
couple of days. Therefore minimal changes to the weather are
expected as well...with drier Summer time trade wind weather
prevailing over the area. Passing showers carried by the winds
will focus mainly across windward and Mauka areas.
A change in the weather is still store by the end of the week...as a
surge in tropical moisture from the southeast is expected to spread
across the islands. Forecast models now hint a weak upper level
ridge may edge near The Big Island over the weekend. This synoptic
weather scenario may lead to a slight less favorable atmospheric
condition for heavier rainfall to develop. On the other hand...there
will be ample moisture provide precipitation across the islands.
Looks like humid and wet weather will return to the islands towards
the weekend. The batch of moisture may reach The Big Island late
Thursday into Friday...then spread across the rest of the state over
VFR conditions will prevail for all sites today...though the
windward sites may encounter brief MVFR ceiling condition due to
passing low clouds.
Moderate to locally gusty trade winds will persist. Therefore airmet
Tango remains in effect for low level turb in the Lee of the terrain.
a Small Craft Advisory continues for the typically windier coastal
waters near Maui and The Big Island today. As the moderate trade
winds persist...expect this advisory to remain in effect over the
affected areas through at least Wednesday.
A series of small southerly swells will reach the islands through
the week. A larger south swell arriving on Friday afternoon may
bring near to above normal surf for south facing shores by Saturday.
Short period trade wind swell will continue across east facing
shores...possibly increasing a bit through the week as trades
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island leeward waters-Big
Island southeast waters.