Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 am HST Friday Feb 12 2016
Synopsis... a trade wind pattern will continue into the weekend.The
trade winds will increase early next week across the state as strong
high pressure builds to the north northwest of the state. Showers
may increase over the area as frontal remnants are carried across
the state in the trades Tuesday and Wednesday.
Discussion... dry and stable trades continue across the
state...with a ridge positioned to the north of the area. A few
showers have impacted windward and mountain locations...but these
have been sparse and we remain in a below average rainfall pattern
Models suggest this dry and stable pattern will remain through the
weekend. There will be a slight change in the character of the
trades as they shift to a more east southeasterly direction. Hi
resolution models hint that winds will increase across windward
areas from Oahu to The Big Island as the flow channels better with
the island terrain on Saturday. Lighter winds expected for Kauai on
Saturday afternoon as a col associated with a weakening cold front
moves near that island. The trades begin to change again on
Sunday...becoming more light to moderate northeasterly as a high
builds in behind the weakening frontal boundary to the north.
The remnants of the front are expected to blow in on strong trades
which will really increase on Monday night and Tuesday. Showery
conditions are possible Tuesday and into early Wednesday...mainly
windward as an increase in low level moisture from the old frontal
Much drier air moves back into the state later Wednesday and
Thursday with breezy trades continuing.
Aviation... VFR will prevail over the islands today and tonight.
Isolate MVFR ceilings within rain showers will be possible across east and southeast sections
of The Big Island and windward sections of the smaller islands. No
airmets are in effect.
Marine... the northwest swell will continue to trend lower as the
day progresses with surf heights likely below advisory levels by 6
PM HST this afternoon.
A Small Craft Advisory /sca/ remains in effect for most Hawaiian
waters now...either due to the large northwest swell or the breezy
trades. Some of these marine zones will drop out at 6 PM HST this
afternoon as the swell subsides. But the Small Craft Advisory covering the normally
windy waters from Pailolo Channel south to south of Big Island will
remain windy enough for small craft concerns and the advisory
remains in effect there through Saturday.
high surf advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for north facing
shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and north and east facing
shores of The Big Island. High surf advisory for west facing shores
of Niihau Kauai and Oahu.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Pailolo
Channel...Maalaea Bay...Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of The
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all windward
waters...leeward waters of Kauai and Oahu including the Kauai and