Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
552 am EDT Friday may 29 2015
high pressure will return today and move off the coast over the
weekend allowing a warm and humid southwest flow to return.
Another cold front crosses the region Sunday morning.
Cool...Canadian high pressure will build back over the region
early next week
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
have updated the forecast based on current conditions. Latest
satellite data continues to show some low cloudiness over western
Maine...the mountains...and northernmost New Hampshire. With a
weak low level flow...it may take a few hours to mix out the
moisture. There is also the threat of low level moisture coming in
off the Gulf of Maine...reaching the coastline on an onshore flow.
However...most areas should remain partly to mostly sunny for much
of the day.
quiet conditions today with drier conditions and
lowering dew points expected. Highs will rebound into the
70s...however an onshore component will allow for cooler
temperatures along the coastline...especially during the afternoon
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
a return of fog may be problematic later tonight...especially
along the coast as winds will continue to be off the Gulf of
Maine. A southerly return flow will gradually strengthen ahead of
an approaching cold front.
This strong front will trigger showers and thunderstorms...mainly
over northern portions of the forecast area on Saturday. This
system will gradually slide towards the coastline with time.
Increasing southwesterly flow both at the surface and aloft...with
modest destabilization over the northern 2/3 of the forecast area
on Saturday should yield a few storms with strong gusty winds. Storm Prediction Center
has highlighted this region for a marginal risk of severe storms.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing a round of
showers and thunderstorms overnight and into Sunday morning in
southern zones as the front slows over southern New England.
Showers may linger in far southern zones into the early afternoon
before pushing offshore. High temperatures will range from the middle 70s to
High pressure building in from the northwest will dominate weather
across the northeast Sunday night through middle week and beyond.
High pressure will gradually move east through southern Quebec
Monday and into the Maritimes on Tuesday. Shortwave crossing the
region on Tuesday will spin up low pressure on stalled frontal
boundary over southern New England but clouds and associated
precipitation will remain well south of the region.
As this system departs Tuesday night another area of high pressure
will build in from the west and will settle into southern New
England by Wednesday morning. High pressure will shift offshore
south of New England Wednesday night and Thursday with return flow
bringing warmer air back into the region for the end of the week.
Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...patchy fog with localized MVFR conditions early this
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions today with areas of fog and
lowering visibilities and ceiling once again late tonight.
Long term...mainly VFR through the period. However...there could
be IFR conditions over southernmost locations early in the week
depending on model solution for low pressure to our south.
short term...winds and seas will be on the increase Saturday
afternoon. Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions with the strengthening
southwesterly gradient ahead of a cold front.
Long term...winds/seas mainly below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
drier weather arrives today. However relatively light winds and
green up should minimize fire danger. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms expected Saturday into Saturday night.