Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
346 am EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Synopsis...
cool high pressure will build in from the northwest today and
Wednesday. Low pressure will move east to the south of southern
New England tonight. High pressure moves to the east on Thursday
with a warmer southwest flow developing. Showery weather is
expected Friday and Saturday as a front stalls near the region.
Low pressure moving along this front will bring a period of rain
or snow Friday night into Saturday.

&&

Near term /today/...
secondary shortwave trough is crossing the area this morning. This has
allowed a small surge in upslope shsn activity as it crosses the
higher terrain. Through sunrise another inch or two accumulation is
possible in the mountains and northern zones.

As the secondary cold front crosses the area today...we will see
temperatures near freezing in the north...with highs climbing into the 40s
near the coast. Northwest flow will be a little gusty in the afternoon
before diminishing overnight.

&&

Short term /tonight and Wednesday/...
trailing shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes will develop a weak
low pressure tonight. This will cross very near southern New England...but
expect any precipitation to remain S of the forecast area. Some cloud
cover may work into southern zones...before clearing late. Surface
ridging will try and build into the forecast area late...and may
allow for some radiational cooling in the favored valleys. Will be
a chilly night...with readings some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
A nice continuation of the theme established for this March so
far.

On Wednesday the only fools will be those looking for Spring...as temperatures
will be well below normal yet again to start the new month. With
cool high pressure in control and little mixing...temperatures will only
climb into the high 30s near the coast and low 30s across the
north country.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
high pressure moving over the region Wednesday night will bring
better radiational cooling conditions with temperatures falling
into the teens for most of the area and low 20s in southeast New
Hampshire. High pressure moves east on Thursday with a southwest
flow bringing warmer temperatures... mainly in the 40s.

Upper trough crosses the area Thursday night allowing a cold front
to move through the area. The front will likely stall just
offshore... keeping showery weather in the forecast. Low pressure
will move northeast along the front Friday night into Saturday.
Some discrepancy exists as to whether this low will track near the
Massachusetts/New Hampshire line or whether it will track off the
southern New England coast. A further south track would allow more
of the precipitation associated with the low to fall as snow
across New Hampshire and Maine. Currently expect snow to primarily
be limited to northern areas... though there is a chance that
precipitation changes to snow even to the coast before ending on
Saturday.

&&

Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...generally VFR conditions expected in through Wednesday. Northwest
flow and lingering moisture in the low levels is leading to MVFR
ceilings...and occasional IFR visibilities in upslope shsn for areas near
khie. This will diminish this morning...and eventually all
terminals go VFR through Wednesday. Gusts within northwest flow around 17 kts will
be possible this afternoon and again Wednesday.

Long term...VFR conditions expected through Thursday. Then showery
weather could bring MVFR or IFR conditions. More widespread
precipitation is expected Saturday with rain or snow leading to
potentially IFR conditions.

&&

Marine...
short term...secondary cold front crossing the waters early today
will keep winds and seas above Small Craft Advisory thresholds into the afternoon.
Weak low pressure will pass S of the area tonight...and will help to
reinvigorate northwest flow. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger through Wednesday.

Long term...northwest flow diminishes as high pressure crosses the
Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. But flow quickly shifts to the
southwest and strengthens again later on Thursday with advisory
level wind speeds possible. A front will stall over the Gulf of
Maine Friday. Low pressure moving along the front will likely lead
strengthen wind speeds a bit but should stay below gale force.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
anz150>154.

&&

$$

Near term... legro
short term... legro

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations