Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
323 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Synopsis...

Low pressure moving through the Gulf of Maine will push off to the
north and east tonight. As northerly flow develops tomorrow it
will bring gusty winds and much drier conditions to the region.
High pressure will build over the area Thursday night. High
pressure will move off to the east Friday. Low pressure and a
trailing frontal system will approach from the west Friday night
then slowly cross the region Saturday before heading into the
Maritimes on Sunday. A weak area of high pressure builds in on
Monday. Low pressure moving in from the southwest brings a threat
of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
low pressure currently moving through the Gulf of Maine will
continue to generate showers along coastal areas through the
evening hours. Expect to see some clearing overnight...especially
in areas the may experience some downsloping.

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Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
as low pressure system begins to pull off to the east and north
late tonight and tomorrow morning we will see a tight pressure
gradient move over northern New England. This will couple with
cold air advection to produce some very gusty winds. Expect winds
to gust to around 40mph at most locations...with some gusts to
45mph over higher terrain. Think they should hold just shy of
advisory criteria. See the fire weather section for discussion on
dew points and relative humidity values.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
models move high pressure quickly off to the east Friday...but still
keep US dry through much of the day...though some showers may arrive
late in the day over New Hampshire. Low pressure and a trailing frontal system
will approach from the west Friday night then slowly cross the
region Saturday before heading into the Maritimes on Sunday. This
will spread prcp across the region from west to east Friday night and continue
through Saturday night. Prcp ends from SW to NE Sunday. A weak area
of high pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday giving US a brief
break in prcp. Low pressure moving in from the SW brings a threat of
rain Tuesday /most likely later in the day/ and Wednesday.

Used a blend of various models...previous forecast and climatology for
the long term forecast.

&&

Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term...expect VFR conditions through the period with the
possibility of some low level wind shear tomorrow...especially in
the afternoon.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...IFR conditions possible in
periods of showers late Friday through Saturday night...with showers
ending and conditions improving from SW to NE on Sunday.



&&

Marine...
short term...northerly flow on the back side of exiting low
pressure will generate gale force winds over the waters tomorrow
before subsiding tomorrow night.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...northwest flow picks up behind
departing surface low and fnt Sunday through Monday with Small Craft Advisory wind gusts
possible. Seas may reach minimal Small Craft Advisory levels over the outer waters
as well.

&&

Fire weather...
pressure gradient will tighten up dramatically tomorrow over
northern New England. Expect widespread wind gusts to 40 miles per hour. The
winds will also usher in much drier air. Locations over southern
New Hampshire will likely meet meteorological red flag criteria.
However...New Hampshire Forest service is telling US that fuels
are still too wet to burn so we will hold off on a Fire Weather
Watch for now. Expect afternoon relative humidity values to drop
to between 20 and 30 percent tomorrow. Will mention fire weather
concerns in the severe weather potential statement also.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
anz150>154.

&&

$$

Pohl/capriola