Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
855 PM EDT sun Mar 29 2015
high pressure will shift offshore overnight as a cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will gradually cross the
region on Monday. High pressure will build in from the west
Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will shift offshore on
Thursday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. A cold
front will push east through the region Thursday night. High
pressure will build in from the west Friday through Saturday.
Near term /through Monday/...
850 PM update...just minor changes made to sky cover and
temperatures based on metsat and current obs/trends.
6 PM update...temperatures were still running quite warm across the
area...so increased them over the next couple of hours and then
radiational cooling should put them back on track. Also...held off
any shower activity until the early morning as all the mesoscale models
are in good agreement for shower activity to pick up around
sunrise across New Hampshire and more middle morning for Maine.
Previous discussion... high pressure will crest over the region
this afternoon before shifting offshore tonight. A cold front
approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds overnight
and the chance of a snow shower in northern and western zones
toward daybreak Monday. Expect any precipitation to be light and spotty.
Lows will range through the teens north and lower to middle 20s
Short term /Monday night/...
cold front will gradually push east through the region on Monday.
The day will feature mostly cloudy skies with snow showers in the
north and rain or snow showers in southern and coastal zones.
Expect little if any snow accumulation in southern areas but an
inch or two will be possible in the north. Highs will range from
the upper 30s to the middle 40s.
Cold front will shift offshore by Monday evening. Will see a
continuing chance of snow showers in the north as upslope winds
kick in. Elsewhere looking for partial clearing and just a chance
of an evening snow shower. Low temperatures will range through the 20s to
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
after a long winter of cold air its nice to see the core of the
hemispheric cold air has retreated to baffin island. This leaves
the overall pattern as fairly zonal through North America...
although we still hang onto a bit of our East Coast trough. A
series of disturbances will move through this flow over the next
week as the generally progressive pattern continues.
After a cold front moves through Monday night, Tuesday will see
US return to our favorite Post-frontal pattern with upslope snow
showers in the mountains.. cold air advection and northwesterly
winds. The April sun will make this day considerably milder than
the pattern would suggest but nevertheless temperatures will
remain below normal with highs around 40 at the seacoast and 30s
inland. Winds may gust to 25 to 30 miles per hour in the morning... but the
generally weaker pressure gradient will mean winds will decrease
quickly through the afternoon.
Wednesday a weak system will pass to our south... brining some
clouds to southern New Hampshire and York County Maine. From there
we try to bring in some weak ridging overnight into Thursday. As
the surface ridge crests to the south on Thursday southerly flow
will bring US some warm air with temperatures reaching the 50s
south to 40s north under mostly sunny skies.
Another system will move out of the Canadian prairies for late
Thursday into Friday. Still quite a bit of spread on the
timing...with showers arriving as early as Thursday night or as
late as Friday afternoon. What is clear is that Friday is likely
to be a wet day as a low tracks to the north and drags another
cold front through the region.
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
00z update...cold front that is pushing into the
area will bring some lower ceiling decks starting Monday morning.
It looks like there will be some scattered showers that could
bring visibilities/ceilings down a bit lower...but conditions
should not drop below MVFR...with the only exception being in the
mountains...where snow showers may bring brief periods of IFR
conditions. The front pushes offshore on Monday evening and
conditions will return to VFR...however upslope snow showers will
linger in the mountains where brief periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions could be possible into Tuesday morning.
Previous discussion...VFR tonight. Areas of MVFR visibility/ceilings on
Monday....improving to VFR Monday night.
Long term... VFR conditions through the first part of the week
decreasing to MVFR showers on Thursday.
short term...sca's will be needed after midnight tonight and will
go through Monday night.
Long term...winds will decrease Tuesday morning behind the front
and will remain below Small Craft Advisory through the end of the week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Monday to 8 am EDT Tuesday for