Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
622 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
cool high pressure crosses New England tonight and Sunday. A
weak warm front will push northeast into northern New England
Monday. Low pressure will track southeast from Canada Monday night
then cross far northern New England Tuesday before moving into the
Maritimes Tuesday night. High pressure will build in briefly late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure will move in from the
southwest late Wednesday and Wednesday night then move northeast
through the Gulf of Maine Thursday and into the Maritimes Thursday
night. A weak ridge of high pressure builds in Friday. Weak low
pressure moves across New England Saturday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
615 PM...some minor updates based on current observation and latest
mesoscale models. Main one is to overnight mins...bringing them up
a bit...especially across the north. Should be enough flow behind the
front overnight...and some clouds in upslope...to prevent a full
night of decoupling.
Previously...cold front has pushed into New England with a cool
northerly wind moving in. Temperatures still soared well into the
40s this afternoon... even hitting 50 in Portsmouth. Temperatures
began cooling in northern and central New Hampshire as cold
advection took hold from the top down. Expect temperatures to fall
back into the teens tonight... or near zero in northern New
Hampshire. Northerly winds will prevent ideal radiational cooling.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure moves over the area on Sunday... with temperatures
staying mostly below freezing... some 15 to 20 degrees colder than
Shortwave trough tracking southeast out of Canada will bring
increasing clouds Sunday night with a chance of light snow. Best
chance of snow will be in the southwest part of the area.
Accumulations will primarily stay under an inch but could reach as
high as 2 inches.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
west northwest flow aloft has a jet maximum/short wave trough moving through the
flow Monday with a stronger system moving through Tuesday. At the
surface a warm front pushes NE into the region Monday bringing
some light snow early then low pressure will track southeast from
Canada Monday night then cross far northern New England Tuesday
before moving into the Maritimes Tuesday night giving a better
chance of light snow especially over northern areas where they
remain mostly north of the surface front and low track. Could see 1 to
3 inches of snow across northern tier of zones with less than an
inch across southern areas.
High pressure will build in briefly late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Low pressure will move in from the southwest late
Wednesday and Wednesday night then move northeast through the Gulf
of Maine Thursday and into the Maritimes Thursday night. The
models are beginning to come into better agreement...toward the
European model (ecmwf) solution of the past few days...still with some variability
from run to run and some differences between the models. The
Canadian model which downplayed this system the most is now coming
into agreement though it starts out the track further north allowing
warm air to push into the region at the start of the event.
Expecting that this model will trend colder...to better agree with
the other models. This could provide a significant snow event for
the forecast area. Will monitor closely as strength, track and timing
Very cold air returns behind the system later Thursday and
Thursday night on strong gusty northwest winds. A weak ridge of high
pressure builds in Friday as temperatures modify quickly. Weak low
pressure moves across New England Saturday with some light
Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/...
short term...some gusty winds this afternoon will subside tonight.
VFR conditions expected to continue.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...MVFR/possible IFR in -shsn
Monday through Tuesday. Widespread IFR/LIFR possible in snow late
Wednesday into Thursday.
short term...some higher wave heights are expected tonight into
Sunday associated with offshore low pressure sending swells our
direction. This should subside by Sunday afternoon.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory
levels until passing storm system brings potential for gales
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday