Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1226 am EDT Monday may 25 2015
high pressure shifts to our south this evening and will provide
fair and warmer weather into Memorial Day. A warm front will cross
the areas Monday night and Tuesday....providing a chance for
showers and storms. Warm and more humid conditions are expected
middle to late week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
1220 am...a few weak radar echoes continue to skirt across far
northestern County Warning Area...but given low dew points and fact that these are falling form
10k or higher...hard to think anything more than a few drops of
rain reaching the ground there. Otherwise will see continued
patches of cirrus and middle clouds to move across the County Warning Area
Previously...there may be a sprinkle or a shower in the
northernmost mountains overnight due to weak disturbances moving
through the fast northwest flow. However...much of the region will
remain dry...although relative humidity values will climb very slowly.
Look for temperatures to bottom out in the upper 30s in a few
locations up north in the mountains overnight. This will most
likely occur in any areas that become clear for a couple hours.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 am Tuesday/...
1220 am...have trimmed back probability of precipitation/sky a bit for Monday morning as
best warm air advection hold off until later in the day. Radar echos over western New York
and Lake Ontario also coming from middle-level clouds and cannot find
observation to support rain reaching the ground...which would also
support lowering probability of precipitation through the morning.
Previously...upper level ridge continues to develop over New
England...while a warm front lifts to northern sections during the
day. Initially...the atmosphere will be quite dry. However with
time...moisture advection and continued lift with warm air
advection along and near the warm front will allow for showers to
develop over northern and western areas. The atmosphere initially
is relatively stable...so have not included the mention of thunder
at this time.
Mainly 70s are expected for Monday...however there is quite a bit
of disagreement between the models...with met guidance being much
A couple sprinkles may make it to the coastline towards
evening...but the highest chance for any precipitation will
continue to be over far northern areas.
Showers become a little more widespread over northern sections early
Monday night as the front continue to shift further to the north
and east. There is still quite a bit of disagreement between the
models in terms of location and timing of precipitation.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
the week ahead looks warm with showers and thunderstorms as a
ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
Tuesday begins as a warm front lifts to our north. Far northern
zones may see a few lingerings showers Tuesday morning. Across the
rest of the area skies will clear allowing temperatures to climb
into the 80s.
By Wednesday we begin to see a weak front approach from the west.
There are some timing differences with this with the GFS bringing
precipitation in earlier while the Canadian holds it off for a while.
High temperatures will soar to near 90, which combined with dewpoints in
the 60s will make conditions ripe for thunderstorms. With the
approaching impulse, and cape around 1000 j/kg expect afternoon
thunderstorms to initiate especially over the mountains. While
the warm air mass will keep hail from being a large concern, the
very moist airmass and weak steering flow will bring isolated
By Thursday the main high has moved off east of the Maritimes
leaving US on the periphery. A series of weak disturbances passing
to our north may touch off showers ... especially in the afternoon
over the higher terrain. This pattern will persist through the end
of the week.
Aviation /04z Monday through Friday/...
short term...VFR conditions expected tonight and Monday.
Localized MVFR conditions due to lowering ceilings...mainly over
northern areas Monday night.
Long term...MVFR in showers possible for hie and leb... further
south expect VFR to prevail through the week. Thunderstorms may
impact all terminals during the afternoon on Tuesday and
short term...winds and seas remain just below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Will
be dropping the scas that were in effect through this evening.
Winds and seas to be on the increase again late Monday night.
Long term...with the high building in winds and seas will remain
below any advisory criteria. Winds will approach Small Craft Advisory on the outer
waters on Wednesday night.
red flag conditions are currently being met over southern New
Hampshire and westernmost Maine. After coordination with adjacent
offices and the state of ME/NH...have opted for a red flag warning
in these areas. Adjacent areas will continue to have an elevated
threat as well through 8 PM. Will continue to handle with the severe weather potential statement
product which we have all season.