Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1024 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016
low pressure will move northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes
tonight while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Low
pressure will move through Quebec on Saturday and may provide a
few snow showers to northern areas Saturday night. It will drive a
cold front through New England on Sunday. Low pressure in the
Atlantic will track to the northeast well to the east of Cape Cod
on Monday. Another low pressure will take a similar track on
Tuesday and linger over the area through Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
1020 PM...cleared probability of precipitation to near zero for the overnight and adjusted
sky/T/TD/wind based on current observation. Winds already to tarting
diminish...so blowing snow should not be an issue.
705 PM...all wsws are now expired. Any remaining light snow exits
Penobscot Bay region by 8 PM. Northwest wind gusts 25-30 miles per hour this
evening could produce some areas of blowing snow. Winds should
slacken after midnight. Otherwise it looks to clear out quickly
with lows dropping in the 10-20f range.
540 PM...took a few more counties out of west-southwest status given the
back edge of the precipitation is practically through
Androscoggin...Kennebec and Sagadahoc.There seems T o be a surge
of more moderate snow offshore which could brush the middle-coast
Penobscot Bay region in the next hour.
410 PM...west-southwest expired for SW ME/seacoast New Hampshire. Drier air is rapidly
moving in form the west...and any light snow will end by 5 PM
here. Otherwise...last of heavier snow now near Penobscot Bay and
that will clear that region shortly. Will keep the other wsws as
they are but should be able to drop them before their 00z
Back edge of the snow is being eroded by dry air on northwesterly
winds. Dewpoints in the teens are finally bringing the snow to an
end. The northwest winds will be gusty through this evening as the
pressure gradient increases and cold advection allows better
mixing. These gusty winds could cause areas of blowing and
drifting snow through the evening. By morning temperatures will
fall into the teens across the entire area.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
high pressure moves east of the area on Saturday with a southerly
flow developing in the low levels. Temperatures should warm to
near or above freezing for most of the area allowing for at least
a little bit of melting.
Upper level trough crossing through central Canada will drive
surface low pressure eastward through Quebec. Could see a few snow
showers associated with this near the Canadian border Saturday
evening and night. Otherwise most of the area will just notice an
increase in clouds before the cold front arrives Sunday.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
a cold front will drop south through the region on Sunday but
should only produce variable cloudiness as it settles into
southern New England by late in the day. High temperatures will range
from the middle 20s to middle 30s north and middle 30s to lower 40s south.
High pressure building by to the north Sunday night will keep a
shallow ridge over the region Sunday as intense low pressure passes
well offshore. This storm will back moisture into the region
Monday afternoon producing a little light snow or flurries by
evening. Expect any accumulation to be light and spotty. Highs on
Monday will top out in the lower to middle 20s.
Deep upper trough swinging in from the west Monday night will kick
off another area of low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast
Monday night and that will move northeast well offshore on
Tuesday. This will keep snow showers in the forecast for both
periods but once again expect any accumulation to be light. Highs
on Tuesday will range through the 20s.
Surface trough of low pressure will linger over the region
Wednesday through Thursday. Expect cloudy skies and scattered
snow showers Wednesday through Wednesday night. Shortwave
dropping into the upper trough over the area on Thursday will
swing a weak clipper system through the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. This will enhance snowfall on Thursday as inverted
trough sets up over the Gulf of Maine. Potential will be there for
plowable snow if this solution verifies with highest amounts in
southwest Maine and southeast New Hampshire. Trough will
gradually shift east Thursday night as a narrow ridge of high
pressure builds in from the west.
Aviation /04z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term...snow will continue to erode from the northwest this
afternoon with conditions quickly becoming VFR as dry air moves in
this evening. Northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 knots may cause some
blowing and drifting snow but winds should diminish by Saturday
morning. VFR conditions continue on Saturday.
Long term...expect generally VFR conditions this weekend. A cold
front will move through on Sunday and could provide a few snow
showers in the mountains. Monday and Tuesday low pressure systems
moving offshore could bring some light snow and IFR conditions.
short term...1020 PM...have converted all the waters to Small Craft Advisory
through 11z Friday. Winds now diminishing as surface low moves quickly
Previously...northwest winds will increase this evening as the
pressure gradient increases between the departing low and the high
pressure moving in from the west. Cold advection will also allow
for greater mixing of the low levels leading to higher wind gusts.
Could see some gusts to gale force over the outer waters and a
Gale Warning is in effect through midnight. Will likely need a
Small Craft Advisory at least through Saturday morning.
Long term...after a brief break Sunday morning winds and seas
increase Sunday night into at least Tuesday as coastal low
pressure systems pass near the waters. Gales may be needed for the
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST Saturday for anz150>154.