Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
919 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015

while the region will see a couple frontal passages...high
pressure will generally remain in control of the weather across
the region through at least the first half of this week...with an
extended period of quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be
well above seasonal norms through the period...with gradually
increasing humidity. Tuesday and Wednesday could be quite hot for
early September. A cold front could cool US down by late
week...but substantial rainfall is not expected through late in
the week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
915 am update...have adjusted sky cover and temperatures a bit
based on latest trends in observational data. Overall...a partly
sunny day looks to be in the cards. Can/T rule out a few stray
showers this afternoon with short wave passage...but most moisture
and more pronounced shower activity should remain to our south.

0545 am update...have made some minor adjustments to forecast.
With clouds across most of the Connecticut River valley...chances
for fog have have removed early morning fog from
forecast for those areas. Have also adjusted clouds, temps, and
dew points for current conditions.

Previous discussion...
a weak disturbance is moving through the region this morning
producing mostly middle to high level clouds. Radar showing
some precipitation...however ground-based reports indicate that
the precipitation is not reaching the ground in most areas. For
early this morning, there could be a widely scattered shower or
sprinkle. Later this morning the clouds should begin to break up
as the disturbance shifts east and drier air moves into the
region. The afternoon will be partly sunny with temperatures rising into
the 80s most areas. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for
the mountains and along the immediate coast. Any sea breeze is
expected to be weak today.

Currently clouds are limiting any fog development...but could see
some patchy fog in Connecticut River valley before daybreak.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
skies will be partly cloudy to clear overnight with light winds.
Temperatures should drop into the 50s to low 60s across the region. With
increasing humidity...expect patchy fog to develop across the
region...especially in the cooler valleys. A weak cold front will
drop south from Canada during the day Monday and will produce an
increase in clouds as the front passes. However...the front isn't
expected to produce any precipitation...and drier air will follow
the front for later in the day.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
a moisture starved cold front will cross the region late Monday
night and early Tuesday morning. There will be a considerable drop
in the temperatures for Tuesday however...with some lowering of
the humidity as well after a rather warm start to the workweek.
Westerly gradient weakens rather quickly...allowing onshore winds
to develop on Tuesday...keeping conditions particularly cool along
the shoreline towns.

A weak cold front approaches from the Saint Lawrence River valley
on Wednesday. This system will be situated over Maine and New
Hampshire on Thursday....bringing scattered showers to the region
into Thursday night. Sufficient instability will allow for
scattered thunderstorms as well. Cape values approach 1000 j/kg
during the afternoon and evening hours.

High pressure will rebuild over New England late in the work week.
Onshore winds will allow for cooler temperatures along the coastal


Aviation /13z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...mainly VFR conditions expected through
Monday...except IFR conditions possible in valley fog early Monday

Long term...high pressure will keep quiet conditions in place
over northern New England throughout the entire long term. Expect
VFR conditions with the potential for patchy fog to produce
IFR/LIFR conditions at favored locations. There may be a few
widely scattered showers Wednesday night and Thursday with
possibly a thunderstorm over the south.


short term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Long flags expected.


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
New Hampshire...none.



Near term update...mle

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations