Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 am EDT Monday may 4 2015
high pressure offshore will bring a southerly flow over the
northeast and transport warmer air into the area. A weak cold
front will cross the area tonight and early Tuesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A moisture starved cold front
will cross the area Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure follows
for late Wednesday and Thursday. A developing onshore flow and an
approaching warm front will make the weather increasingly
unsettled for Friday. The warm front should lift to the north of
the area by Saturday followed by a trailing cold front late
Saturday night and Sunday.
Near term /through today/...
a warm southwest flow today with plenty of sun and 850 mb
temperatures around +12c should allow maximum temperatures to reach
the upper 70s in the mountains to lower 80s over the rest of the
interior areas. Along the immediate coast temperatures will be
cooler due to developing seabreezes...especially over the
midcoast areas. Used a blend of guidance for maximum temperatures.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Tuesday/...
a cold front will move through the area tonight with scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm accompanying the frontal passage. The
front will move through quickly and any quantitative precipitation forecast from the showers will
be light. The front will be off the coast by morning. Due to the
clouds and mixing a mild night is expected with lows in the upper
40s to upper 50s as per guidance suggests.
Tuesday brings a return to sunny conditions as high pressure from
the Great Lakes builds into the area. Not much cold air behing the
frontal passage so temperatures on Tuesday will remain mild with
downsloping west to northwest winds. Maximum temperatures will range
from the middle 60s in the mountains to middle 70s elsewhere. There
should be enough of a west gradient wind to prevent any seabreezes
along the coast so the coastal plain may see some of the warmest
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
all models this morning continue to show a cold front pressing
south of New England starting Tuesday night as high pressure build
in from the Great Lakes region. The surface ridge will crest over
our region Wednesday before moving off the coast on Thursday. A
warm front will then attempt to drive through northern New England
on Friday...but will likely become hung up along or near the
Maine/New Hampshire border. This may lead to patchy drizzle and
fog along the Maine coastline.
A moist southerly flow continues into next weekend. The Canadian
model remains an outlier depicting a weak area of low pressure
coming up the middle Atlantic coastline towards our region.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
short term...VFR conditions except MVFR conditions briefly in any
scattered showers tonight.
Long term...mainly VFR...except for developing IFR conditions in
possible drizzle and fog on Friday. This will mainly be over
short term...a Small Craft Advisory will be issued for the eastern outer waters
tonight ahead of the approaching cold front as the southwest flow
will increase enough to allow winds/seas to reach minimum Small Craft Advisory
criteria for a short time. Conditions diminish on Tuesday.
Long term...winds may approach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday into Saturday.
a warm southwest flow today expected with afternoon humidity
levels to fall to near 25 percent over southern interior areas of
New Hampshire and ME and closer to 30 percent elsewhere with wind speeds
around 10 or 15 miles per hour. Both of these criteria are marginal and not
quite reaching red flag warning conditions but there is some
concern that dry air could be more pronounced. Therefore a red
flag warning will be issued for today.
ME...red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
New Hampshire...red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 am EDT
Tuesday for anz150-152.