Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
746 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
high humidity values will keep things mild overnight...with
readings only falling into the 60s. A cold front will edge even
closer on Wednesday...but allow temperatures once more to climb
into the 80s...even along the beaches. Showers and thunderstorms
will be a little more widespread...mainly during the morning
hours. There may be a slight chance for showers Thursday as a
system grazes US to our south. After a dry period Friday and
Saturday...some scattered showers will arrive late in the weekend
due to a weak weather disturbance.
shower and thunderstorm activity across ther region beginning to
dwindle with loss of heating. Thunderstorm activity has been
mainly confined to southwest New Hampshire and expect this to die
out through 10 PM....although scattered showers will continue in
moisture laden airmass. Have adjusted probability of precipitation and sky condition to
reflect latest radar trends and Sat loops. Have also adjusted
temperatures and dew points. Expect fog and stratus to develop as clouds
diminish later this evening. Still looking for another round of
showers and some isolated thunderstorms as the cold front front
pushes in from the west after midnight. No other changes planned
at this time.
near term /through tonight/...
moisture continues to stream north into New England as a warm
front pushes into the region. Some locations in southern New Hampshire and SW
Maine were reporting readings in the lower 80s. Along and south of
the boundary warm air advection was triggering showers and a few
weak thunderstorms to develop.
As daytime heating decreases convection will begin to wane. We
will see a break in precipitation tonight as the warm front lifts
north. Overnight lows will be warm in this advection pattern.
Short term /Wednesday night/...
towards daybreak a cold front moves in from the northwest and a line of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to make its way
towards the Gulf of Maine. We should see the last of these showers
and thunderstorms sliding off the midcoast by early afternoon. We
will have some instability to work with but nothing substantial...
so expecting only general thunderstorms with some heavy downpours.
High temperatures Wednesday should be as warm as Tuesday from the
foothills south... but also a couple degrees cooler in the north
where drier/cooler air will have begun to filter in. Wednesday
night we will see the usual temperature discrepancies we see
with a frontal passage... slightly cooler in the higher terrain
than the guidance suggests... and warmer on the coast than is
suggested. In short a larger nocturnal spread than we have seen
the last few nights.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
a weak weather system will graze southernmost Maine and New
Hampshire no Thursday as it crosses off the southern New England
coastline. The Canadian model continues to be the outlier with the
furthest north position of the track of the low. High pressure
over the Ohio Valley will bring dry conditions to our region on
Friday and Saturday.
On Sunday...a warm front will be draped to our south. This will
lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms for late in the
Much cooler air may enter the region during the middle to late week
period next week as a very chilly...polar high builds towards the
region from Canada. Temperatures aloft may lower to +5c at 850 mb.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term...current VFR conditions will give way to MVFR or lower
conditions tonight into tomorrow in showers and thunderstorms.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain tonight will wave with
sunset. Heavier showers will accompany a cold front that moves
through in the morning. Fog looks more likely for kaug and krkd...
with stratus more likely elsewhere.
VFR to prevail through the end of the work week and into this weekend.
With high pressure in control...will have to watch for areas of valley
fog at night.
short term...have continued the Small Craft Advisory even though
it is borderline and will cancel when appropriate. We will see a
few gusts to 25 kts.
Long term...winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Wednesday for anz150-152-