Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
109 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
while the region will see a couple frontal passages...high
pressure will generally remain in control of the weather across
the region through most of this week...with an extended period of
quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be above normal through
the period...with gradually increasing humidity. A cold front
could cool US down briefly late week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
1111 am...minor estf update to reflect the current mesonet in
first period grids.
625 PM...the cold front continues to press southward
across the rooftop of Maine at 22z. With exception of a few
clouds...this will be a dry frontal passage as convection with the
front is limited to New Brunswick on WSR-88D radar mosaic. A
prefrontal trough was situated along the downeast coast and
extended southward through our coastal waters. For this estf
update...I made minor adjustments to first period grids to reflect
the current mesonet as well as satellite trends.
cold front is dropping into northern zones at this hour. The boundary
is moisture starved however...and any shower activity is confined
to the County currently. Cannot rule out a stray shower in the far
north in the next couple of hours...but loss of daytime heating will
limit potential beyond that.
Surface ridging quickly moves in behind the front...with temperatures
bottoming out near dawn in the 50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog will
be possible again...especially after 09z.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Wednesday/...
high pressure builds in for Tuesday...setting up S and east of the area. This
will allow for onshore winds as opposed to warm...downsloping
winds today. Resulting afternoon temperatures will be a little cooler
than today...but still above normal for most areas. Return flow
and warm air advection will allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer Tuesday night than
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
high pressure will shift offshore Wednesday as a weak frontal
boundary begins to move south from Canada. Conditions will remain
dry Wednesday...but the heat and humidity will peak ahead of the
approaching front so hazy hot and humid weather expected Wednesday
into Wednesday night. By Thursday the front moves south through
the region bringing some relief with cooler temperatures and less
humid conditions. In the transition scattered showers and even a
few thunderstorms are possible along the front later Wednesday night
For Friday and through the weekend a large blocking surface/upper high
will build across the northeast with warm and dry conditions with
temperatures averaging above normal.
It seems safe to say that weatherwise a very nice weekend is
Stayed close to superblend model for the outlook period.
Aviation /05z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR expected to prevail for all terminals. Patchy
valley fog is expected again tonight at leb and hie. It is more
uncertain if Aug...con...and rkd will see any fog again however.
Long term...VFR except maybe briefly MVFR Wednesday night into Thursday in
any scattered showers.
short term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
Long term...no problems noted.