Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1147 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
high pressure will build in from the west through Sunday. A cold
front will approach from the west on Monday and will cross the
region Monday night. A weak area of low pressure will pass south
of the region on Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the
west Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low pressure crossing
southern Canada Thursday will drive a cold front toward the area.
The front will cross the region Thursday night. High pressure will
build in from the west on Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
1145 PM...quick update to drop probability of precipitation close to zero in the very
near term...and eventually down to zero in the pre-dawn. Moved
clouds out of the S and east a little quicker. Made some tweaks to
T/dew point as well...with mins a touch warmer in a few spots.
have updated the grids this evening. Latest radar imagery
continues to show dry air filtering in from the north...allowing
the echoes to shift to the south and dissipate. Most of the snow
showers have dissipated with just perhaps a few flurries
continuing over the next couple of hours. Snowfall reports ranged
from zero eastern areas to nearly 3 inches over portions of
southern New Hampshire.
Made minor adjustments to the dew point and cloud grids. Min
temperatures remain from the single numbers in the north to around
20 degrees along the coast.
overnight lows will range from the upper single digits north to
lower 20s along the coast. This will be due to colder air drawn
into the area and damming along the higher terrain and clouds
rapidly moving out of the area after midnight as high pressure
pushes in from the west. Still... went a few degrees above
guidance as west winds along the northern periphery of the high
will keep the flow from being non zero and will not benefit from
having the entire night for radiational cooling.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure builds in for Sunday with winds initially northwest and
then SW as high pressure sags to our southeast. Sunday will be mostly
sunny with temperatures warming into the middle 30s north to upper
30s/lower 40s south. Low pressure organizes in southern Canada
north of the Great Lakes Sunday evening in response to a weak
northern stream wave. Overnight lows Sunday night occur fairly
early as warm air advection regime develops ahead of this
approaching system. Showers should hold off until Monday morning
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
rather quiet week ahead in the extended forecast. Low pressure
crossing southern Canada on Monday will drive a cold front
toward the region. After some Morning Sun expect clouds to quickly
over-spread the region. Boundary layer temperatures will support mostly
snow showers across much of the region...but will become warmer
enough in southern zones Monday afternoon for just rain showers.
In any case expect quantitative precipitation forecast to be light and spotty with little impact
and highest amounts in the north where snow accumulations will
generally be an inch or less. Highs will reach the middle 30s to
lower 40s north and lower to middle 40s south.
Cold front will push offshore Monday evening. Expect partial
clearing downwind of the mountains overnight. Expect clouds to
hang tough in the usual upslope areas in the north. Low temperatures
will range through the 20s.
Weak shortwave will swing through southern New England on Tuesday
brushing southern New Hampshire with afternoon clouds but any
associated precipitation should remain south of the forecast area.
Remainder of the forecast area will see partly to mostly sunny
skies. Highs will range from the middle 30s north to middle 40s south.
High pressure building in from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday
will bring mostly clear skies. After a chilly start...highs
Wednesday will rebound into the lower to middle 40s in southern
zones and will range through the 30s north.
High pressure will slide offshore Wednesday night and return flow will
bring warmer air back into the region. A warm front passing to
the northwest of the forecast area will bring increasing clouds
and a chance of a snow shower by Thursday morning. Clouds will
lift north of the region in the afternoon with some sunny breaks
developing. Highs will range from the lower to middle 40s north to
the middle 40s to lower 50s south.
Cold front will push east through the region Thursday evening with a
brief round of rain showers. Expect clearing skies after midnight
as the front quickly shifts offshore.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday producing
another mostly sunny day.
Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...conditions should improve in the next few hours as
low ceilings/moisture source moves away well south of Nova Scotia.
Until then mixed conditions will be present across the area.
North/north-northwest winds will diminish somewhat to at or below 10 kts.
Long term...areas of MVFR ceilings developing Monday...becoming
VFR Monday night. VFR Tuesday through Thursday.
short term...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through tomorrow afternoon.
Did trim the ending time back a few hours.
Long term...sca's likely on Monday and Tuesday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Sunday