Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
237 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014
high pressure will build south from Canada through Sunday and
will settle off the southern New England coast Monday through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region late
Wednesday...before nearly stalling on Thursday. High pressure will
slowly build over the region Friday into Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
plenty of diurnal cumulus overhead this afternoon...but they are
struggling to produce much if any showers. Have trimmed pop back
even further as any showers will be fairly unlikely at this point.
Clouds will dissipate quickly after sunset...setting up for a cool
night. Light winds and cool conditions will promote areas of
fog...some of which might be locally dense in the larger river
Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
daytime heating will lead to more diurnal cumulus...though less
widespread than today. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation...though the higher terrain could squeeze out a brief shower
around and just after peak heating. Will be a warmer day across
the area...with warmer locales reaching to near 80. Clouds clear
again overnight...with more valley fog in favored locations.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
high pressure will settle south of New England for the beginning
of the work week. This will allow for a south to southwest flow to
set up across the region...allowing for warmer temperatures to
enter the region. Look for highs to climb into the lower 80s
inland tomorrow...with still 70s along the coast and up in the
Warm air advection will continue in the lower layers on
Tuesday...with widespread 80s away fromt the coastline. It will
still only be in the 70s along the beaches...but it will feel
milder with increasing dew points. A repeat performance is
expected again on Wednesday with south southwesterly winds along
and out ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers will develop later in the day Wednesday...however there
still continues to be timing differences with the models. A few
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will last into early
Thursday. Thereafter...more sunshine with high pressure will be
entering the region.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
short term...diurnal cumulus will dissipate after sunset. Expect ideal
conditions for valley fog...with favored locations seeing areas of
IFR or lower impacts. Fog lifts in the morning with mainly greater
than VFR ceilings expected in some afternoon cumulus. Another round of
valley fog Sun night will result in areas of IFR or lower
Long term...mainly VFR conditions. However...localized IFR in
showers and isolated thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.
short term...winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
Long term...a few long period swells may arrive late in the
workweek next week. However...these should be relatively minor.