Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
346 am EST sun Feb 14 2016
high pressure will build in from the west today and will crest
over the region overnight. High pressure will shift offshore on
Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm
front will lift north through the region Monday night and Tuesday
as low pressure moves north through eastern New York. Low pressure
will continue north into Canada Tuesday night and will drive a
trailing cold front through the region. A trough of low pressure
will linger over the area on Wednesday through Thursday. High
pressure will build in from the west Thursday night and will crest
over the region early Friday before shifting offshore.
Near term /through today/...
remnants of the midcoast trough from yesterday slowly sagging
south early this morning. Lingering area of light snow slowly
pushing southwest out of the capital district and midcoast and
expect this precipitation to gradually dry up as it continues southwest
through daybreak. Elsewhere...upslope clouds and a few snow
showers stretch front the Connecticut valley through the
mountains of Maine and New Hampshire and expect this moisture to
persist through the morning hours before clearing this afternoon.
Northwest winds will continue gusty at times today but will be
diminishing later this afternoon as high pressure builds in from
the west. Expect dangerous wind chill values to linger through the
early to middle morning hours. High temperatures in the north will
generally remain below zero today with readings topping out at 5
below to near zero. In the south readings will range through the
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Monday/...
high pressure will crest over the region overnight and winds will
become light and variable. This will set up a very cold night with
lows in the north of 15 to 25 below zero. Farther south lows will
range from near zero along the coast to 15 below inland.
High pressure will shift offshore on Monday. After a sunny start
to the day expect increasing clouds as return flow brings warmer
air back into the region. Weak warm front approaching from the
southwest will bring a chance of snow showers into southwest zones
toward sunset. Should see highs getting back closer to normal with
readings topping out at 15 to 20 north and in the lower to middle 20s
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
the remainder of the 7 day forecast will remain active with the
large trough in the east and the ridge in the west holding
until Thursday. At this point ridging moves across the plains and
over the east as a ripple of lower heights moves onto the West
Coast. More or less zonal flow punctuated by short waves every 18
hours or so will be in place over the weekend before the West Coast
ridge/East Coast rough once again emerges.
The main difference in the deterministic models is how they handle
the Monday night/Tuesday system. The GFS wants to assign the
lead short wave more energy than the Euro. The GFS is somewhat
faster than the other models in developing surface low pressure
and lifting a warm front across New England...although all models
have it moving out of the region Wednesday morning. Ensemble
members also seem to have big differences after about 60 hours or
so. Wpc prefers the 00z GFS and so went closer to this although
overall used a blend.
Snow showers will begin Monday afternoon and move north as they
become more steady by nightfall. As warmer air arrives a wintry
mix will develop over much of the area...with the coast seeing
mostly rain and the northernmost locales seeing mostly snow. As
the warm air advances the area of frozen precipitation will
shrink...however this will take most of the day. Highs Tuesday
will actually reach the 40s in most spots with a run at 50
degrees for southern New Hampshire. A cold front sweeps through late Tuesday
night changing all areas to snow from northwest to southeast. Showers will
taper off Wednesday as the upper trough axis crosses the East
Would not be surprised to see a large area of 4-6 inches of snow
with more at the higher elevations from Monday night through
Tuesday. Along the coast rain mixing in will keep totals lower.
Of greatest concern will be freezing rain which could range from
a hundredth of an inch to a tenth or more of ice. The exact areas
and amounts are difficult to say at this time...but as the event
nears confidence increases. Have included these massages in the
severe weather potential statement and will likely be hoisting watches soon.
The cooler air will dam along the higher terrain Wednesday
allowing for a moderate temperature difference north to south. A
colder airmass will arrive in the form of high pressure Thursday
into Friday bringing temperatures back closer to normal values.
Saturday looks like a warm day as a warm front arrives in the
early morning hours. Precipitation should begin as snow then
transition to rain during the day before tapering off as snow
showers. There is also the possibility this system could have
some mixed precipitation with it...but it is too far out to know
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...VFR today through tonight. VFR Monday morning with
areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing Monday afternoon and
Long term...LIFR/IFR conditions likely all terminals Monday night
through Tuesday night in sn/ip/fzra/ra. Conditions improve early
Wednesday with some lingering MVFR ceilings for khie and perhaps
kleb in -shsn. VFR for Thursday. Monday night through Tuesday
night gusty south winds are expected.
short term...continuing gales for the outer waters and sca's for
the bays. Also heavy freezing spray warning through until noon.
Long term...Small Craft Advisory will be needed late Monday night through late
Tuesday with gales for the outer waters as south winds increase
due to a warm front lifting across the waters and the pressure
gradient increasing. A cold front crosses the waters late Tuesday
bringing gusty northwest winds behind it.
ME...wind chill warning until 10 am EST this morning for mez007>009-
New Hampshire...wind chill warning until 10 am EST this morning for nhz001>015.
Marine...heavy freezing spray warning until noon EST today for
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for anz151-153.
Gale Warning until noon EST today for anz150-152-154.