Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
301 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2014
high pressure centered over the area will move offshore tonight
and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the north on
Sunday...before stalling over the region on Monday. Another cold
front will approach from the west Tuesday and will cross the
region Wednesday. High pressure will follow late in the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
the surface and upper ridge axis of high pressure will be over the
region tonight. This will guarantee clear skies and light winds.
Areas of valley fog is expected to develop after midnight. Temperatures
will once again be cool due to the radiational cooling with lows
in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/...
Saturday will begin sunny but some increasing high clouds can be
expected as a warm air advection pattern aloft begins. High temperatures will
once again be in the 70s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds
will be out of the S so coastal areas will be coolest.
Saturday night a warm air advection pattern will continue to spread increasing
moisture and clouds. The southwesterly flow aloft will have some embedded
S/waves that may brush northern areas with scattered showers or thunderstorms Sat night
as models suggest. Used a blend of models to develop pop forecast.
Temperatures Sat night will be milder with increasing humidity.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
a cold front will approach from the west on Sunday. Warm and humid
conditions will precede this front. Forcing for ascent will
increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. This will
work in tandem with moderate instability to allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms...mainly during the
afternoon and evening. The shower and thunderstorm activity should
be fairly widespread...thus the relatively high probability of precipitation. A few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
The front will stall in the vicinity of the County Warning Area on Monday and this
will aid in the continuation of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. However...present indications are that the heaviest
activity will remain across southern New England. Another cold
front looks to approach for Wednesday...and this should allow for
a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter...high
pressure and fair weather looks to build in for Thursday and Friday.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term...VFR through Sat...except expect some fog in river
valleys late tonight and early Sat. Sat night some MVFR ceilings may
develop in scattered showers in the mountains
Long term...occasional IFR conditions possible in showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Tuesday should be VFR...with a
renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sat...seas are running
2-4 feet at this time with long period deep water swells. The swells will
slowly subside tonight. By Sat night seas will be increasing due
to an increasing southerly flow and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.
Long term...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Sunday and Sunday night ahead
of cold front. Low probability of Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead
of another cold front.