Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
321 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
a weak warm front will gradually be suppressed to the south
tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the
north. High pressure will remain in control over the northeast
Sunday through Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach from the
north on Wednesday. A secondary front will cross the region
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
a weak boundary remains draped across the County warning forecast area at this time. This
convergent zone is the focus for showers...mainly from a khie to
kpwm line and southwestward. Some widely scattered diurnal showers are also
possible through this evening in the higher terrain of western ME. The
diurnal showers will dissipate quickly...while those associated
with the convergent axis will have a little more staying power
into the evening.
Otherwise...we will see a slow clearing trend as the convective
clouds break up. These pockets of clearing will help temperatures cool
quickly. Expect that there will be a few areas of valley fog
coincident with these holes in the cloud cover.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
most areas should see some sun in the morning...but this will
quickly give way to clouds as daytime heating commences. These
will mostly be diurnal in nature...as the convergent zone
continues to move away from the region. Expect an early afternoon
peak in cloud cover...along with scattered showers moving southwestward in the
northeasterly flow. This will be a cool flow as well...and seasonably cool
high temperatures are expected yet again...despite being a few degrees
warmer than today.
Clearing will once again lead to quickly cooling temperatures at
night...with another round of valley fog likely being more
widespread as high pressure takes control.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
Canadian high pressure will remain over the region on Sunday and
Monday. This will bring seasonably cool conditions with sea
breezes along the coast during the afternoon.
A moderating trend will continue inland ahead of a slow moving
front on Wednesday. Thereafter...there will be a risk for
scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms on Thursday with the
passage of a cold front during the day. There continues to be timing
differences in the models that have yet to be resolved.
High pressure will build in behind the front...as any tropical
activity remains well off the East Coast.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term...scattered MVFR conditions will persist into this evening.
Ceilings will generally remain above 2000 feet in rain showers...but visibilities will
remain p6sm. Partial clearing tonight will result in some patchy
valley fog. Not confident in degree of clearing...so didn/T hit it
hard in the tafs...opting for a tempo 2sm at the favored
Could see more widely scattered rain showers Sat across the interior...but
generally expect MVFR or better conditions in these. More
widespread clearing Sat night should lead to more extensive valley
fog and IFR or lower conditions.
Long term...generally VFR conditions.