Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Gray ME
703 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
high pressure will generally remain in control of the
weather across the region through the rest of the weekend and at
least the first half of next week...with an extended period of
quiet weather expected. Temperatures will remain well above
seasonal norms through the period...with gradually increasing
humidity. Tuesday and Wednesday could be quite hot for early
September. A cold front could cool US down by late week.
Substantial rainfall is not in the forecast through late next
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
weak south-southwest to north-northeast flow aloft is steering middle and high clouds into
the region tonight and this trend will continue overnight. These
clouds may preclude fog formation in a few spots but it seems
possible we will still see fog in mountain valleys towards
morning. Hourly temperatures were adjusted for current trends.
a weak short wave trough will cross northern New England tonight
and this will probably just be accompanied by a period of middle and
high level clouds. There could be a brief light shower in the
mountains late. Otherwise...valley fog is once again expected in
the normally vulnerable areas.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
one weak short wave trough will pass through the region by midday
Sunday. Other than a period of broken clouds and a few spot showers
on Sunday...we should have plenty of sun and temperatures should
get well into the 80s. Another short wave trough will cross the
area Sunday night...and at this time it looks like it will come
through with very little fanfare.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
strong upper level ridging over the Great Lakes will start to
slowly migrate eastward on Monday. This will allow temperatures to
climb above normal as well. A weak disturbance will move through
Monday night...but will produce little in the way of weather.
Temperatures under the ridge on Tuesday will be 10f to 15f degrees
warmer than normal with most locations seeing temperatures well
into the 80s and lower 90s. High pressure remains in place through
Thursday when a weak back door cold front will try to drop
southward across the area. Dry conditions remain in place for the
remainder of the forecast period.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...mainly VFR conditions expected...except IFR
conditions possible late tonight and early Sunday morning in
Long term...high pressure will keep quiet conditions in place over
northern New England throughout the entire long term. Expect VFR
conditions with the potential for patchy fog to produce IFR/LIFR
conditions at favored locations.
short term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
A brief period of 20 knots gusts and 4 feet seas is possible tonight
with a slightly stronger southwesterly low level jet associated with short
Long term...no flags expected.