Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
600 am EDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
a weakening disturbance from the Great Lakes will provide the
chance for a few showers over northern and western sections of
our area through Friday. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure will
anchor over Maine and New Hampshire over the weekend and early
next week...with a gradual warming trend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
600 am...minor estf update to reflect the current mesonet and
latest radar trends.
radar continued to show an area of showers across western New
England. The Block in place and high pressure draped across the
area will limit the eastward progress of the precipitation into
our forecast area. I've confined the chance for showers to
northern and western sections of the area for today. The
clouds...showers...and an onshore flow will limit high
temperatures to the 70s...with some upper 60s along the immediate
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
for tonight and Friday...little change to the sensible weather
with the best chance for showers across western and northern
sections in closest proximity to the weak disturbance.
Otherwise...onshore flow and clouds will limit high temperatures
to the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
dry weather is expected through the period as a surface high
pressure ridge dominates the weather across Maine and New
Hampshire. The building ridge should lead to skies becoming
partly cloudy Saturday with clear to partly cloudy skies through
early next week. The next chance for any significant weather will
be middle to late week next week. A frontal system will be
approaching from the west by middle week. In addition...GFS and European model (ecmwf)
models are indicating that a tropical system could be moving up
the East Coast middle to late next week...however still considerable uncertainty
at that time range.
Aviation /10z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...mainly VFR through Friday...except for valley fog at
khie/kleb...and perhaps a brief period around sunrise at
Long term...mostly VFR conditions expected with morning fog in
short term...winds and seas to remain well below small craft
Long term...winds and seas expected to be below small craft