Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
615 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
cool and dry Canadian high pressure will move overhead today and
Wednesday. High pressure will continue to build and remain over
the region late in the week and through the weekend with a
significant warming trend expected and cool clear nights through
at least Monday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
610 am...minor estf update to ingest current mesonet in 1st period
at 06z...upper trough and upslope was producing a few mountain
clouds along with widely scattered rain or snow showers.
Otherwise...skies were mainly clear across the forecast area. A
weak impulse and associated surface boundary vicinity of the
upper Great Lakes will race east-southeast across the area this
afternoon along with a few clouds and isolated sprinkles...or
flurries above five thousand feet. Highs today will be mainly in
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
building surface high brings clear skies and cool temperatures
tonight...with lows ranging from the 30s across the mountains to
40s and low 50s elsewhere. A sunny day on Wednesday as the high
crests across the region with highs in the 60s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
00z model suite continues to show the large ridge of high pressure
that is currently building over New England early this week...to
remain in place for a considerable period.
The only fly in the ointment will be during the middle to late week
period. Models are now showing low pressure developing along the
middle Atlantic coastline by Thursday. For now...it appears that the
strong ridge in place over New England will keep any light
precipitation or coastal drizzle to our south where an increasing
onshore flow will develop. However...each subsequent model run
continues to be further north with this system...so this will need
to be monitored closely. For now...it appears just some cloudiness
may enter southern portions of the forecast area Thursday into
Temperatures will moderate with time. Expect widespread 70s during
the day by the Friday through Sunday time period.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will reassert itself for the
weekend. Thereafter...a backdoor cold front may cross the region
early next week.
Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR expected.
Long term...high pressure will remain anchored over the region
during the long term. This will allow for mostly VFR
conditions...however patchy dense late night fog may allow for isolated
LIFR conditions across some of the interior valleys...especially at
leb and hie.
short term...marginal seas and a few gusts to near 25 knots
early...otherwise winds and seas should be below Small Craft Advisory threshold.
Long term...winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for