Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1005 am EDT Friday Aug 29 2014
high pressure will crest across the area today before sliding
offshore tonight and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the
north on Sunday...before stalling over the region on Monday.
Another cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and will
cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will follow late in the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10 am...minor estf update to reflect the current observation data...otherwise
no changes needed.
At 06z...a 1022 millibar high was draped across the eastern Great
Lakes. Outside of a few lingering low clouds across the
mountains...GOES imagery showed clear skies across the forecast
area. Expect some patchy valley fog this morning in areas without
lingering low cloud. Otherwise...the clouds across the mountains
should dissipate as the surface high builds eastward into the
region. A light synoptic flow should turn onshore by afternoon
along the coast. Highs today will be in the 70s with comfortable
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
another mainly clear and cool night under the cresting surface
high...with lows ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. We
should see some early morning valley fog as well.
On Saturday...a sunny start as the high slides offshore with some
increasing clouds by late in the day ahead of the next
disturbance. High temperatures will once again be in the 70s with
comfortable humidity levels.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the 00z model suite is still in some disagreement as to the
location of a frontal system late in the Holiday weekend. Prefer
the Euro/GFS and ensemble solutions which depicts a cold front
moving south on Sunday before becoming hung up and stalling over
southern areas on Monday. Expect scattered showers both days as
exit our dry period over the last several days. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible as well.
Yet another slow moving front will approach from the west on
Tuesday...triggering more scattered precipitation through
Wednesday morning. High pressure will build into the region later
in the week...with a return to moderating temperatures.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...VFR through Sat...except expect some fog in river
valleys late tonight and early Sat.
Long term...locally MVFR conditions in scattered showers or
isolated thunderstorms during the early to middle next week period.
winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sat...seas are running
3-5 feet at this time but in long period deep water swells which does not
constitute the need for an Small Craft Advisory so have dropped the Small Craft Advisory over the
midcoast outer waters. The swells will slowly subside this
afternoon and into tonight.
Long term...winds and seas generally below Small Craft Advisory levels.