Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
316 am EST Friday Mar 7 2014
high pressure over Maine will move east today. A weak cold front
looks to move through on Saturday... with mainly dry weather
continuing. A weak area of low pressure will cross New England
early on Monday... followed by another weak system on Tuesday. A
coastal storm may affect the region midweek.
Near term /through today/...
latest mesoscale models continue to show northeast gradient in
asssociation with low pressure of the middle Atlantic coastline later
today will remain just south of our forecast area...with light
southerly winds developing over our region during the day. Most of
the high cloudiness will remain south of our forecast area as
well...allowing for bright sunshine and warming March
temperatures. Warming of the column will allow surface
temperatures to reach the freezing mark in most areas
today...which has been elusive for much of the last couple weeks.
Used a blend of mav/met MOS for maxes.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Saturday/...
a weakening cold front will approach from the northwest
tonight...before moving across the forecast area on Saturday. This
system will be moisture starved...so scattered snow showers should
be confined to the upslope region of the mountains. Colder air
will once again begin to filter into the region Saturday
afternoon...however not before additional melting occurs with
temperatures well into the 30s under partly sunny conditions.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
high pressure settles over the region with colder temperatures once again on Sunday.
By Monday and into Tuesday a couple of weak S/waves will move through a west-northwesterly
flow aloft and may possibly produce periods of light snow late Sun night and
Monday and again on Tuesday. Moisture will be very limited so no accums
expected. On Wednesday a large Canadian Arctic high builds southeastward into the
region with much colder temperatures yet again. At the same time models are in
disagreement on how to handle a strong piece of energy moving through
the southern jet stream for late Wednesday and Thursday possibly allowing a
coastal low to deepen and move off the middle Atlantic coast and northeastward
toward the Gulf of Maine. The Euro continues to insist on a track
that would provide a significant snowfall while other models track
the system too far S for any snow at all. For now will hedge and
keep a chance of snow for late in the week due to the uncertainty in
the development and track. Stayed close to superblend guidance for the
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...VFR conditions expected.
mainly VFR conditions except brfly MVFR in any scattered snow shswrs Monday
short term...winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria...however
cold air advection and incresing gradient may lead to gusty winds
winds/seas remain below Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday. Late Wednesday into Thursday a possible
coastal low may track close enough to significantly increase
winds and seas.