Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1227 PM EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
an intense ocean storm will slowly move east into the Canadian
Maritimes this morning. High pressure will then follow for late
today into Thursday. Another storm system will likely bring a
general snowfall to the area late Thursday night through Friday
night. High pressure will follow over the weekend...with another
storm heading towards New England on Monday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
have updated grids based on current conditions. Significant breaks
in the cloud cover over New Hampshire and western Maine should
continue to migrate east with time. Temperatures will continue to
slowly climb out of the teens...eventually reaching the middle 20s
over southern sections.
Already turning attention to next system which will produce more
snow across the region late Thursday night into Friday evening.
Most of the snowfall accumulation will be over eastern areas as
low pressure intensifies over the easternmost portions of the Gulf
of Maine Friday. There will be rapid cyclogenesis Friday night
over the Maritimes.
625 am...minor estf update to ingest current mesonet into 1st
at 07z...a 990 millibar ocean low was centered well east of
Portsmouth. National Weather Service Doppler radar mosaic showed a
weakening band of light...and occasionally moderate snow across
much of western Maine. This activity will continue to diminish
and dissipate this morning as the ocean storm continues to slide
further offshore and weaken. With decreasing precipitation and
winds...will allow the remaining winter weather headlines to be
dropped with the new morning package. We'll see gradual clearing
from west to east by afternoon as the surface high currently
draped across the Great Lakes builds eastward into New England.
Highs today will range from teens in the mountains to the 20s
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
clear and cold tonight under the building ridge with fresh
snowpack and decoupling surface winds. Lows will range from near
ten below in the mountains to around zero near the coast and the
urban centers of southeastern New Hampshire.
After a chilly start Thursday morning...sunshine and a developing
return flow behind the departing high will boost afternoon highs
into the 20s...with a few 30 degree readings possible over
seacoast New Hampshire. We'll see increasing clouds over western
sections late in advance of our next storm system.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
a long wave trough is becoming established across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. The next in a series of strong short waves will
dig into the base of the long wave trough and become negatively
tilted Thursday night developing a surface and upper low some
along the northeast coast Friday into Friday night before exitiing
into the Maritimes by Saturday morning. Models have come together
and generally agree on scenerio but somewhat different on
intensities. Expect light snow to spread across New Hampshire late Thursday
night and then into ME by Friday morning. Accumulations will be
light. By later in the day the storm deepens off the coast and
some more significant wraparound snow may spread far enough west
to reach the midcoast. The system is progressive so will not have
too much time to pick up a lot of moisture. It does appear that
several inches of snow can be expected with this system and it
will need to be watched.
The system exits into the Maritimes by Saturday morning with
clearing and strong cold air advection on gusty northwest winds.
Sunday will be pleasant with high pressure over the region.
On Monday a more significant storm may be in the making as a
system moving east from the Southern Plains allowing the Gulf to
open and then tries to phase with energy from the northern stream.
A good deal of quantitative precipitation forecast will be with this system. The track will be
critical as usual. We will be watching how the models handle the
northern and southern streams with this system over the next few
days for clarity.
Overall stayed close to the superblend models for the extended
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term...lingering IFR and MVFR early in snow and blowing
snow...becoming VFR throughout.
Long term...conditions lowering to MVFR late Thursday night and
mostly IFR Friday into Friday night in snow. Conditions improve to
VFR over the weekend as cold high pressure builds into the region
with gusty northwest winds.
short term...a freezing spray advection is in effect through this morning.
Gales remain up for the waters this morning...then small craft
expected for the balance of today.
Long term...gale force winds are possible Friday night through
Saturday night on northwest winds.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for anz151-
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for anz150-152-