Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
328 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
low pressure will finally drift off into the Maritimes today. A
brief break Saturday gives way to a cold front crossing the
region Sunday. High pressure builds in for the beginning of next
week. A cold front will move through the area around the middle of
Near term /today/...
slow moving low pressure is finally wobbling NE towards Nova
Scotia this morning. Moisture feed is still pointed at northern
New England and rainfall continues. However...occlusion process
is gradually cutting off and weakening this feed. As a result the
forecast is a general weakening of precipitation and a tapering to showers
by afternoon. Any additional rainfall amounts over an inch will
be confined to central ME...with lesser amounts S and west. With the
bulk of potentially flooding rains already fallen I have allowed
the Flood Watch to expire. Several rivers are at action
stage...but at the moment appear to be slowing towards a crest
below flood stage.
Short term /tonight and Saturday/...
remaining showers will taper off this evening...as shortwave ridging
works into the area. This is going to allow for a brief partial
clearing. Model guidance shows plenty of lingering relative humidity in the middle
levels for clouds for much of the evening...quickly clearing
towards dawn. This complicates the low temperature forecast...as
clearing would promote chilly mins while clouds would keep US more
mild. Chose to discount the very cold...below freezing...mav and
use a blend of other guidance.
Saturday should begin with partial sun with brief ridge of high
pressure crossing the area. Seasonable temperatures and dry
weather are expected. Late in the day a cold front approaching
from the northwest will spread clouds overhead...with showers breaking
out in the high terrain.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
upper trough and surface front cross the area Saturday night with
a brief shot of showers possible mainly in northern areas.
Downsloping conditions east of the mountains will make showers a
little less likely there. Cold air behind this front is not all
that intense... so temperatures will not change much. However it
could be a bit breezy on Sunday as west/northwest winds blow
across the area.
High pressure at the surface and aloft nudge northward into the
area on Monday. Expect gradually warming temperatures through
Tuesday. Another cold front is expected to move through the area
on Wednesday... this time with colder air behind it. East of the
mountains... downsloping winds may allow temperatures to warm a
few degrees. GFS and European model (ecmwf) vary significantly in timing of the
front... so there is still a good amount of uncertainty in the
timing of showers as well as the temperature forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday.
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...generally MVFR conditions expected today...with
pockets of occasional IFR in heavier rain showers. Waves of -shra will
continue for much of the day...gradually drying out into the
evening as low pressure pulls away. Gusty northwesterly winds are possible
this afternoon...but will be short lived. VFR conditions tonight
continue into Saturday.
Long term...should see MVFR/IFR conditions in showers to the north
of the mountains on Sunday but the rest of the region should be
VFR. VFR continues through Tuesday.
short term...winds have relaxed some...dropping below gale force
on the outer waters. Gale warnings have been replaced by Small Craft Advisory through
this afternoon at least. Seas will be slow to subside...so an
extension may be necessary.
Long term...winds behind the front on Sunday will likely require a
Small Craft Advisory through Monday before winds finally subside.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for