Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
650 am EST Thursday Jan 29 2015
high pressure will build east and crest across the region today.
Another storm system will bring snowfall to the area late tonight
through early Saturday. High pressure follows over the weekend...with
another system moving south of New England on Monday. High pressure
will follow midweek.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
645 am...minor estf update to incorporate the present mesonet
into 1st period grids.
at 08z...a 1030 millibar Arctic high was building
east into New England. Clear skies...light winds and fresh
snowpack had allowed temperatures to tumble below zero across much
of the interior. After a chilly start...temperatures should
rebound into the 20s in many locations under sunny skies. We'll
see some increasing clouds this afternoon in advance of the next
disturbance over western sections of the forecast area.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
clouds thicken quickly tonight...with light snow gradually
spreading east across the area by dawn ahead of the system
approaching from the Great Lakes. Low temperatures should occur
early...then remain steady oe even rise a degree or two as cloud
cover increases and lowers across the region.
On Friday...the upper trough begins to go negative and eventually
closes off. At the surface...low pressure will slow down and
intensify as it slides offshore. Snow becomes heavy at times by
afternoon then continues into Friday night. It gradually tapers
to flurries from southwest to northeast by Saturday morning...with
highest snow totals found from the Maine midcoast northward across
the capital district into the Kennebec valley. There will be a
distinct southwest to northeast gradient to snow totals...ranging
from 3 or 4 inches in extreme southwest New Hampshire to around a
foot vicinity of the midcoast and Kennebec valley. The Winter
Storm Watch has been replaced with a warning in our Maine
zones...with a Winter Weather Advisory issued for New Hampshire.
Gusty northwest winds will draw much colder air back into the
region late Friday night behind the offshore low.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
low pressure in the Gulf of Maine exits into the Maritimes
Saturday morning. Clearing takes place in its wake from west to
east along with gusty northwest winds and very cold temperatures.
Canadian high pressure builds across the region the rest of the
weekend. A strong progressive short wave moves across the Ohio
Valley late Sunday and will be sheared as it passes off the middle
Atlantic coast harmlessly Monday. It will pass well south of our
area bringing nothing more than a chance of light snow over
southern areas Monday. Then, a continued cold but generally dry
pattern occurs through the midweek.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...MVFR with areas of IFR developing after midnight
from west to east in snow. Widespread IFR Friday and Friday night
in snow...gradually improving to VFR on Saturday. Northwest wind gusting
to 25 knots developing for late Friday night and Sat.
Long term...conditions will improve to VFR across all terminals
Saturday and remain VFR through the weekend.
short term...winds and seas below small craft through tonight then
steadily increasing with gales likely by Friday night.
Long term...gales will likely be needed in northwest flow late Friday night
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 1 am Friday to 6 am EST Saturday for
Winter Storm Warning from 3 am Friday to 10 am EST Saturday
New Hampshire...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 am EST
Saturday for nhz001>015.