Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
115 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
high pressure will generally remain in control of the
weather across the region through this weekend and at least the
first half of next week...with an extended period of quiet weather
expected. A series of weak cold fronts will try to push through the
region Sunday and Monday with no more than an isolated shower
expected. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
towards the end of the week. Temperatures will remain well above
seasonal norms through the period...with gradually increasing
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
115 PM update...no significant changes to the going forecast.
Other than some bubbling cumulus and some cirrus in spots...a nice
1020 am update...little change to the going forecast. Just a few
minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover based on latest
trends in observational data. Overall...a fine day weatherwise is
0545 update...updated grids to account for current conditions. No
Another nice late Summer day today after any valley fog Burns off.
With the ridge of high pressure sliding off the coast today, warm
advection aloft on the back side of the ridge will produce
cirrus...but otherwise...expect mostly sunny skies across the
region. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the 70s to lower
80s. A sea breeze will limit temperatures along the coast to the 70s.
Other areas will have light winds.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
high clouds will continue to increase across the region overnight
as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region. Skies will become
cloudy overnight with only a slight chance of any showers as the
frontal boundary moves through the region early Sunday. Behind the
front...skies should become partly sunny during the day Sunday.
Clouds Sunday morning should help to limit valley fog. High temperatures
Sunday afternoon will be in the 70s and 80s with coolest temperatures in
the north and mountains...and along the coast.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
warm and quiet...
High impact weather potential: none.
Pattern summary: an early morning look at the pattern across noam
reveals a longwave trough over the eastern Pacific with a weaker
downstream longwave trough centered across eastern Canada. A
pattern realignment is expected during the long term forecast period
as jet energy currently over the Bering Sea drops into the western
trough helping to give it a kick eastward while the downstream
trough over Canada folds beneath ridging in the vicinity of
Greenland...helping to reinforce the -nao and associated blocking in
this region. Deterministic and ensemble guidances is in good
agreement that the result across noam will be the development of a
stable trough/ridge/trough pattern with this pattern amplifying as
the week continues. Interestingly, this places New England
initially under building heights as the eastern Canadian trough
pushes east...but with heights later falling as the northwestern
Atlantic trough amplifies. This pattern spells little in the way of
notable weather through the week with deep-layer ridging in control
for nearly all of the period. Forecast challenges will center
around any minor precipitation chances associated with potential
back door cold front Monday-Monday night and potential ridge-roller
activity late in the week. A further concern is just how warm we
will get as heat dome builds over the upper Midwest and central
Canada and gradually pushes east.
Guidance trends/confidence: early morning deterministic and ensemble
guidance is in good agreement on the longwave features through the
long term forecast period...with agreement strongest on details of
the western trough. There continues to be discrepancies in the
strength and placement of amplifying trough over the northwest
Atlantic with the GFS still more robust than the European model (ecmwf)...especially
during the second half of the week. This reduces confidence
primarily in the degree of late week heat we will achieve.
Interestingly...the guidance consensus is far more bullish with
backdoor cold front Monday night-Tuesday...with the consensus close
to the GFS solution from 24 hours ago.
A cold front drops into the region on Monday as strong shortwave
brushes the region as it amplifies over the Canadian Maritimes.
Moisture is not terribly impressive with this feature...with
middle/upper level forcing well to our east. Given that we/ll already
be in a northwesterly flow regime after Sunday/S weak frontal
passage...see little threat of any precipitation with this feature
over southern areas...and will restrict schc/low chance pop mention
to the mountains and far northern areas.
High pressure builds into the region behind the departing cold front
Monday night and Tuesday bringing with it a drier airmass which
suggests a terrific day with plenty of sunshine.
Quiet weather looks to persist through Wednesday as heights aloft
surge significantly. As flow trajectories aloft become more
westerly...we/ll see an increase in llevel humidity with more clouds
than Tuesday...but it should remain dry.
Confidence decreases as we reach the end of the forecast period
Thursday-Friday...depending on the degree of downstream trough
amplification. Regardless of model solution...little in the way of
organized dynamical forcing is apparent with sprawling ridge
extending well north into Canada. However...precipitation chances
likely return back to near or a little above climatology /20
percent/ with some potential for either convective activity riding
over the crest of the ridge to the west...or some threat of
additional back door cold front activity /very aggressive in the new
Very summery pattern in place through the long term forecast period
as heights build to +1-2sigma with t8s following suit. Backdoor
cold front introduces some uncertainty for Tuesday...with GFS/European model (ecmwf)
ensemble MOS products revealing 10-15 degree spreads from the bottom
to top members. Guidance consensus is likely the best way to go
here...giving a nod to the recent trends to the more bullish GFS.
Beyond this...very warm conditions should return...but will temper
highs in this forecast package given uncertainty in the degree of
downstream trough amplification /GFS much more robust here than the
ECMWF/...which has the potential to bring highs back closer to
Aviation /17z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term...mainly VFR conditions expected...except IFR
conditions possible early this morning and again Sunday morning.
Long term...widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions are not expected
through the long term forecast period. Outside of potential backdoor
cold front on Monday night...light wind regime with gradually
building humidity indicates daily morning fog concerns at hie/leb.
short term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Patchy fog may limit visibilities tonight.
Long term...winds and waves look to remain below small craft levels
through the long term forecast period as high pressure dominates
conditions along the East Coast. Strongest winds through the period
/15-20kts/ appear to be Monday/Monday night associated with a
backdoor cold frontal passage.