Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
334 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
a trough of low pressure will swing across New England on
Thursday...providing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will build in from the east Thursday night through
Friday. A wave of low pressure may affect the area with showers on
Saturday. A frontal boundary will remain nearby Sunday. The front
will gradually shift east on Monday. A cold front will cross the
region late on Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
lower level convergence area still producing some rain showers over eastern
zones and lifting slowly NE...with a little line extending south-southwest.
These will not move too much in the few hours and should drift
north-northeast...before diminishing around 22-23z.
For tonight...skies should clear out somewhat this evening as some
weak ridging moves through between the two troughs aloft. Should
be another cool night...with lows down into 50s most spots and 40s
in the cooler mountain locations...and valley fog development in the
usual spots. May see some cirrus or ac increasing in the west
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
500 mb wave swings through on Thursday...coincident with 500mb cold
pool...which will be enough to produce some convection across the
County Warning Area...especially in the mountains and foothills. These areas could see
a fair amount of showers with scattered thunderstorms and rain. Closer to the coast...will likely
see more sun and warmer temperatures...with less coverage of rain showers...but
more of the convection will produce thunder. Should see some small
hail...with an outside threat for larger hail if updrafts can
pulse up enough and hold a core up for awhile. Highs will range
fro around 70 in the cooler mountain spots...to the upper 70s and 80 on
the coastal plain.
The wave exits just as we lose daytime heating...so the rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
should diminish fairly rapidly during late after and early evening...with
clearing skies after sunset...and another night with temperatures running
below normal...especially in the mountains..,where lows will fall into
the 40s once more.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure strengthens over northern New England Friday
into Saturday. Overall cyclonic flow aloft and continued southerly
flow will be enough to keep showers in the forecast..especially over
the western and northern zones away from the center of high
pressure. Friday will be partly sunny initially and this along with
+13 degrees c at 850mb will boost maximum temperatures into the
upper 70s to middle 80s.
Saturday through midweek temperatures cool down a few degrees with
more cloud cover and widespread showers associated with a mesolow
traveling up the eastern Seaboard and a warm front lifting north
into the Gulf of Maine. The front stalls just offshore for the
remainder of the weekend and into Monday morning. The boundary may
briefly focus showers and thunderstorms over southern sections. More
precipitation will be possible with a cold frontal passage Tuesday
night. Cool dry high pressure builds in from the west-northwest on Wednesday.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term...other than krkd..should see VFR into the evening at
all the terminals...with valley fog develiping at khie/kleb...and
maybe a little fog around sunrise at kcon. Krkd is expected to stay
IFR or lower through the night...with improvement to VFR Thursday morning.
Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain could produce brief flight restriction Thursday
afternoon...and perhaps some small hail.
Long term...prevailing VFR Friday through Monday...however there
will be periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms causing MVFR
of lower conditions. Also expect widespread fog each morning
especially in places where rain has fallen.
short term...persistent SW flow offshore will keep seas in the 3-5
feet range away from shore Thursday into Thursday night.
Long term...no problems noted.