Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
317 am EDT sun Sep 21 2014
low pressure over Quebec will drag a trailing cold front across
the region late today and tonight accompanied by a few showers and
scattered thunderstorms. An upper trough will provide lingering
clouds and a chance of mountain showers on Monday. A second surge
of cool air moves in on Tuesday and may set off a few showers in
the mountains. After a cool shot of air Tuesday and
Wednesday...high pressure builds to our south into the weekend
with a significant warming trend at the end of the week and into
Near term /through today/...
at 06z...a 1000 millibar low was situated over western Quebec
with a trailing cold front through the upper Great Lakes. A
strengthening southerly flow preceded this boundary across New
England. We'll see variable clouds across the forecast area today
in advance of this boundary. Radar mosaic showed scattered showers
over southern New England that will cross the coastal plain this
morning. Otherwise...variable clouds with an increasing chance for
convection through the day with approach of front and daytime
heating that warms temperatures into the 70s.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Monday/...
cold front crosses the area tonight and exits the coast by morning
accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunder. Another
mild night with lows in the 50s to around 60. On Monday...we'll
see lingering clouds with the upper trough along with the chance
for a shower across the higher terrain. High will range from 50s
in the mountains...to near 70 at the coast where we'll see the
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
the 500mb trough that moves through area Tuesday into Wednesday...will be
the last we see through the long term period as large scale
ridgingdevelops across all but the West Coast of noam...with the
ridge pushing as far north as James Bay by the end of the week...which
will lead to an extended period of several days of above normal
temperatures Thursday into next weekend.
Initially...will start out with a bit of cooler air Monday night and
a a second surge of cooler air Tuesday as 500mb trough axis swings
through. It could set off a few showers in the mountains Tuesday....and highs
will generally be in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the middle 30s
north to middle 40s S. After this the large scale ridge builds and
persistent westerly flow will continue to supply warm air to the
region...with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15c range. This should
translate to highs in the 70s across the entire County Warning Area /near 80 in
interior southern New Hampshire and SW ME/ and overnight lows in the middle 40s to
middle 50s. Skies will be mainly sunny and probability of precipitation 10 percent or less.
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...increase in low level tropical moisture will advect
fog and low clouds into the area today with areas of MVFR...and
local IFR this morning. Expect widespread MVFR tonight with local
IFR...then becoming VFR Monday with scattered MVFR in showers.
Long term...mainly VFR...other than valley fog...Tuesday through Thursday.
short term...marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions with gusts to around 25 knots
and seas near 5 feet expected today...then winds and seas will drop
below Small Craft Advisory tonight.
Long term...seas from prior persistent SW flow will start at 5-6
feet Monday night...but northwest flow will knock these back through Tuesday...and
then light westerly flow persists through the end of the week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for anz150-