Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
818 PM EDT Monday Jun 1 2015
periods of rain will gradually taper to a few showers on
Tuesday...as low pressure slides offshore to our south. High
pressure will build in from the west Tuesday night through
Wednesday...shifting offshore Wednesday night. High pressure will
hold off the coast on Thursday. A cold front will drop south from
Canada on Friday and will push offshore Friday night. High
pressure will build in from the northwest on Saturday and will
shift offshore on Sunday.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
8pm update... heavier rain is now moving back into southwest New
Hampshire...and will continue though coastal Maine through early
5pm update... just a few temperature tweaks... the
northern mountains have been holding a bit colder. Very cold air
for this time of year with Mount Washington reporting freezing
rain. Showers are tapering off in the north but are expected to
redevelop in the south after midnight. Previous ... surface high
overthe Maritimes briefly nosed into our far northern Maine zones
today...otherwise we were stuck in a damp and raw northeast flow
across the forecast area...with occasional light rain or drizzle.
Temperatures ranged from middle 40s to lower 50s across the
region...a good twenty to twenty five degrees below average for
the date. The last in a series of shortwaves is over the eastern
Great Lakes and will race east and approach the region overnight.
Rain will once again increase in coverage and intensity
tonight...north of the stalled boundary situated to the south and
southeast of the area. Models have zeroed in on the axis of
heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast to the south of the forecast area...although extreme
southeast New Hampshire into Southern York County Maine could see
an additional one to one and one-half inches over the next 24
hours. Elsewhere...amounts should be generally under an inch.
There could be some ponding of water and brief localized drainage
flooding with the heavier rain later tonight...but no significant
Hydro issues are anticipated.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
expect rain to taper to showers tomorrow as the surface low slides
offshore well to our south and east along with the best forcing.
However...clouds and areas of drizzle will persist through the
day in cool northeast flow. Once again temperatures will remain
well below normal with highs only reaching the upper 40s to middle
Gradual clearing in all but mountain sections Tuesday night as
high pressure begins to build into the area. It'll be seasonably
cool with lows ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s with patchy
valley fog across the interior.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
the pattern is indicating the record warm weather of may will not
be returning anytime soon. Ridging returns for Wednesday and
Thursday with dry and seasonable temperatures. By Friday another
Canadian clipper with an associated cold front drops southeast
through the area allowing scattered showers to develop and
continue into Friday night. By Saturday cool Canadian high
pressure settles over the area bringing a return to sunny but cool
conditions. On Sunday the high moves off the coast allowing an
onshore flow to develop and keep temperatures seasonable. The
models show the next system rotating northeast and should bring
more rain to the area early next week. Generally stayed very close
to the superblend.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibility will persist
through Tuesday...with VFR returning Tuesday night followed by scattered
MVFR in late night valley fog.
Long term...VFR through Thursday night. Conditions MVFR Friday
into Friday night in scattered showers along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Conditions return to VFR Saturday.
short term...continuing sca's through Tuesday outside the bays in
persistent NE flow.
Long term...seas/winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Friday. Winds may briefly approach Small Craft Advisory Saturday behind the
passagae of a cold front.
no fire issues through Wednesday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for anz150-152-154.