Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
914 am EDT sun Apr 20 2014
high pressure moving over the region today...will shift slowly
southeast tonight and Monday...providing fair weather. Low
pressure approaches from the west late Monday night and crosses
northern New England Tuesday and Tuesday and Tuesday
night...providing the chance of rain. High pressure building
across the region will bring fair weather middle to late week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
910 am...a few minor adjustments to the forecast based on latest
trends in observational data. A very nice day continues to be
expected with plenty of sun and warming temperatures.
630 am...just a few tweaks to T/TD/sky early this morning...based on
current observation...but nothing that changes the basic forecast of a
mainly sunny day.
Previously...surface high crests over the County Warning Area today...and look for a
generally sunny day...other than a few patches of thin cirrus.
Will see sea breeze develop...which will be enhanced a little by
weak easterly flow as the high shifts S...this will keep the coast
cooler...with highs only around 50...while inland areas will climb
well into the 50s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
will see cirrus thicken a bit overnight as warm air advection aloft moves
through. Mins will be a few degrees than this morning. The cirrus
will likely linger through Monday although it will still be p-M
sunny. Flow shifts to SW...and temperatures will warm into the 60s
inland. Coastal areas will be cooler...but Casco Bay and points
should still see highs close to 60...while the middle-coast will be
stuck in the 50s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
warm fnt lifting through the area and increasing onshore flow will
gradually increase clouds through Tuesday. Frontal boundary itself may be
the focus on some rain showers across the mountains...but expecting mostly dry
first half of the day otherwise. As low pressure/occlusion approaches
rain showers will become more numerous for the rest of the County warning forecast area. Model
guidance remains fairly progressive with the feature...with upper
trough axis crossing the region by midday Wednesday. Dry northwesterly flow will
quickly clear out most areas outside of the mountains Wednesday. However cold air advection
will support that northwesterly flow becoming gusty through the end of the
week. Best windows for wind gusts will be with upper trough
passage...and again Thursday with secondary cold fnt. Could see a few
gusts approach 30-35 miles per hour in these windows. The region will then be
sandwiched between two areas of low pressure...with ridging aloft
providing for some dry weather. The resulting low relative humidity values coupled
with the breezy conditions Thursday could lead to some elevated fire
danger. Winds relax Friday as surface high pressure moves in...which should
alleviate concerns. As ridging moves eastward...next trough approaches
New England with precipitation chances for next weekend.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...VFR expected through Monday.
Long term...MVFR or lower conditions possible Tuesday night into
early Wednesday in rain showers. VFR returns Wednesday afternoon...outside of the
mountains...with gusty northwest flow developing through Friday.
short term....sca is being cancelled as winds seas will remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday...with generally light winds into Monday
morning...except for onshore sea breeze developing this afternoon.
SW flow flow will start to increase Monday afternoon.
Long term...marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Tuesday as southerly flow
builds seas to around 5 feet. With passage of cold fnt/low pressure
stronger northwest flow will develop on the waters. Gust may approach
gale force for a time Thursday.