Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service kgyx
1008 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
a weak cold front will exit off the New England coastline today.
A ridge of high pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday. A warm
front will try and lift through the forecast area late in the
week. Low pressure will track over northern New England over the
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
1000 am...minor adjustments to 1st period grids to ingest current
mesonet for this estf update.
7 am update: front has cleared the area and has taken all the
showers to the south. Took out any mention of early morning
showers. Minor adjustments to temperatures based on latest observation.
the weak cold front exits off the coast by morning with high
pressure to quickly build across the region today. Skies will
become sunny from north to south this morning and downsloping west
to northwest winds will keep temperatures mild...even along the
coast. Most areas will be mostly in the 70s and some of the
warmest temperatures will be along the coast for a change since
there will be enough of a northwest gradient to fend off any
Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
a cooler night expected due to some radiational cooling expected
as winds become calm and skies remain clear. Due to the very low
dewpoints with the dry air mass temperatures are expected to drop
into the middle 30s in the mountains to middle 40s elsewhere.
On Wednesday high pressure will remain over the area with
continued dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies, and light winds.
Temperatures will recover back into the 70s after a cool start.
Along the coast afternoon seabreezes can once again be expected so
high temperatures will likely be reached in the morning.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
a ridge of high pressure will remain over the region Wednesday
night into early Thursday. 00z model suite then depicts the
formation of a warm front over central portions of New England.
The GFS is the most aggressive with this development...while the
European model keeps high pressure surpressing any warm air
advection well to the south.
By Friday night...this front may make it through the region as low
pressure passes by to our north...moving up the Saint River
Valley. In any case...there may be areas of fog...with the
possibility of patchy drizzle.
There could be convection with a strong frontal zone later in the
weekend as plenty of warm...moist and unstable air remains over
southern locations...and a polar high pressure system begins to
build southward from Canada.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
Long term...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the extended.
Will have to watch for scattered MVFR ceilings/visibilities in showers as a
warm front looks to hang up around the forecast area late in the
short term...7 am update: dropped the Small Craft Advisory as winds and seas have
a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 8am over the eastern outer
waters. Otherwise winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Long term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds for much of the period. However...a strengthening
southwest flow will develop next weekend.
today... a red flag warning has been issued for all areas including
the coast. Gusty downsloping winds today and significant mixing
will allow very dry air aloft to mix down to the surface. With
very dry conditions already in place combined with expected
conditions today warranted the red flag warning. Dry conditions
will continue Wednesday so an elevated fire danger is likely to
persist across the area. Anyone considering outside burning should
monitor later statements from the National Weather Service as well
as local and state officials before burning.
ME...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez007>009-
New Hampshire...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for nhz001>015.