Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
523 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
while the region will see a couple frontal passages...high
pressure will generally remain in control of the weather across
the region through most of this week...with an extended period of
quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be above normal through
the period...with gradually increasing humidity. A cold front
could cool US down briefly late week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a quick update this morning to adjust the grids for ongoing fog
throughout most of New Hampshire and portions of far western
Maine. Also made minor adjustments to current temperature and dew
ongoing cold air advection and winds become onshore
today will allow for much cooler temperatures than yesterday. This
will keep high temperatures from climbing out of the 70s along the
coast and over eastern sections near the Penobscot River Valley.
Elsewhere...readings will make it into the 80s with middle 80s over
southern New Hampshire.
Warm air advection will ensue this afternoon...with most likely
some high thin cloudiness developing and possibly some middle level
moisture at times.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
patchy inland fog developing again...especially in sheltered valley
locations such as the CT River Valley in New Hampshire.
On Wednesday...the heat returns...and also increasing dew points.
This will make for a very warm September day...albiet not record
breaking. Most areas will top out between 85 and 90 degrees...with
lower 90s over southern New Hampshire. Coolest readings will be
right along the coast as winds become south off the Gulf of Maine
at times during the day.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
cold front will continue to slowly sag south through the region
Wednesday night. May see some lingering showers or isolated
thunderstorms in northern zones during the evening hours but with
little forcing along this weak boundary expect this activity to
die out quickly with loss of heating. Will be another muggy night
with lows ranging through the 60s.
Cold front will end up draped across southern zones by Thursday
morning and will likely be the focus for early afternoon convection.
Shear will be minimal at best and with pwat's forecast near 1.5
inches slow moving cells may drop some considerable rainfall
amounts in a short time. Expect this activity to shift south
during the afternoon as the boundary shifts offshore. High temperatures
will once again range through the 80s in most areas.
High pressure building south from Canada will bring cooler and less
humid air into the region behind the front Thursday night. Lows
will range from the 50s north to near 60 south.
Friday looking like a Gem as high pressure continues to build over
the area. Temperatures ranging through the 70s and dew points in the
lower to middle 50s will make for a very comfortable day.
High pressure will continue to settle south through the region Friday
night...pushing south of the forecast area by Saturday morning.
Return flow will bringing warmer and more humid air back into the
region for the weekend. Expect plenty of sun through both days
with gradually increasing daytime highs...reaching the middle to
upper 80s by Sunday.
Heat and humidity will persist into early next week as a massive
upper ridge hangs on over the northeast.
Aviation /09z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...mainly VFR conditions...with the exception of late
night inland valley fog. This will allow for LIFR conditions
tonight...especially at kleb.
Long term...VFR Wednesday night through Saturday.
short term...winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Marine fog should be limited due to a persistent west
and southwest gradient.
Long term...no problems noted.
while temperatures will soar into the middle 80s along the
coast to the lower 90s inland on Wednesday...this will likley not
set records for sept 2nd. The record high in Concord on wedneday
is 98 degrees...while it is 94 degree in Portland.