Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
831 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
a weak upper level disturbance will cross the northern areas
through evening...accompanied by a few clouds and scattered mountain
flurries. High pressure follows overnight...and will shift offshore
on Wednesday as a broad upper level ridge builds over New England.
This will bring above average temperatures through the end of the
work week. The high will hold offshore through Friday...with the
next chance for rain Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold
front crosses the region.
variable cloudiness continues across the region this evening as a
weak disturbance passes through the region. Seeing a few flurries
in the mountains but these should be ending over the next 3 to 4
hours and clouds will diminish. Another cold night on tap as lows
bottom in the teens north and 20s south. Have adjusted temperature/TD/sky
and pop grids based on latest observation and Sat pics. No other changes
planned at this time.
near term /until 7 am Wednesday morning/...
a few clouds and flurries associated with the upper trough will
linger into the early evening hours...otherwise we'll see clearing
skies and cold temperatures overnight as the upper trough exits
into the Maritimes and the surface ridge builds eastward. Lows
tonight will range from teens to lower 20s.
Short term /7 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
high pressure will crest over the area in the predawn hours before
retreating offshore. Outside of some high and patchy middle clouds
in developing warm air advection...a partly to mostly sunny day
and a degree or two warmer with highs ranging from the 30s in the
mountains...to lower and middle 40s elsewhere.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
southwest flow continues to bring in more warm air at all levels
Thursday and Friday. Highs Thursday will reach the 50s and Friday
will reach the middle and upper 50s... with a few low 60s possible.
Then a cold front arrives from the northwest Friday night. Expect
much colder air behind the front for Saturday with showers
expected along the front Friday night. Some of these showers may
change to snow as the cold air arrives late Friday night but not
expecting significant accumulations. Best chance of any
accumulation is in the northwest upslope areas of the mountains.
High pressure settles in behind the front Saturday with cooler
temperatures. Highs will be in the 30s to low 40s and a degree or
two cooler on Sunday and Monday.
Storm system early/middle next week is now being tracked north into
Canada by both major models which would be a warmer scenario for
northern New England with more rain and less snow.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 12z Wednesday/...VFR conditions expected.
Long term...increasing low level moisture on a southwest flow will
eventually bring in some lower clouds late Thursday into Friday.
MVFR conditions seem likely with showers arriving Friday night.
VFR conditions expected behind the cold front Saturday except for
possibly some lingering MVFR conditions north of the mountains.
short term /through Wednesday night/...winds and seas continue to
diminish along with gradient and the small craft has been dropped. We
should remain below small craft conditions through the period as
high pressure builds east across the waters.
Long term...southwest flow strengthens on Thursday and will likely
reach into the advisory range. Winds shift to northwest behind the
front Friday night with advisory level winds lingering possibly
astronomical tides will be near the peak for the month over the
next few days. On Friday the high tide in Portland around 11 am is
11.5 feet. While this is close to the 12 feet flood stage... the
southwest wind is expected to prevent a surge of water along the
coastline. Most likely areas to see any sort of surge would be
along the midcoast where the southwest wind has more of an onshore
component though any impacts should be very minor.