Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
952 am EDT Friday Sep 19 2014
cool high pressure will build in from the west today and shift
offshore by Saturday. A warm front to track northeast across the
area Saturday night. A cold front will quickly follow from the
west Sunday night into Monday...and will provide a round of
showers. A second cold front will cross the area Tuesday followed
by high pressure for the later half of next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
945 am update...have dropped the Small Craft Advisory as criteria has not been met
for the past couple of hours. Updated temperatures based on
current observations and trends...current trends suggest that high
temperatures may be a degree or two lower than previously
650 am...have dropped all frost and freeze products. Temperatures
in the most of the freeze warning spent several hours below
freezing and temperatures starting to rise...and the formation of
additional frost in other areas is not expected as the sun rises.
Otherwise just made some tweaks to T/dew point based on current observation.
Previously...surface high will pas right over the County Warning Area today with
diminishing north winds...and eventually onshore flow developing along
the coast this afternoon as sun will heat up the land just enough
for density circulations. Very dry airmass will keep skies
clear...and despite all the sun...highs will be in the middle 50 to
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
the surface high shifts offshore tonight with SW flow
developing...although it seems unlikely that these winds would mix
down to the surface anywhere but along the immediate coast overnight.
Still...should be enough flow at the boundary layer to prevent maximum
rad cooling...and mins Sat morning will be warmer than this
morning. Generally in the low-middle 30s in the north...to low 40s on
the coast. Could see some cirrus start to move in from the west
late as well.
Saturday will feature increasing cirrus from the SW...but should
be mostly to partly sunny for a good part of the day...with warmer
temperatures as the SW flow picks up a bit. Highs should climb into the
60s everywhere...and get close to 70 in the warm spots of southern New Hampshire
and interior SW ME.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the models are in general agreement on the long wave pattern
through late next week. A trough arrives from the Great Lakes
early in the period. By Wednesday...the upper trough lifts out and
is followed by building heights and an upper ridge over the
eastern two-thirds of the Continental U.S.. we begin the period with high
pressure offshore and a cold front approaching from the Great
Lakes. A mild southerly flow in advance of the front will produce
an unseasonably warm day Sunday. We'll see an increasing chance
for showers as we head through the day Sunday...with a chance for
lingering showers behind the front across the higher terrain on
Monday. Another cold front crosses the area on Tuesday with the
coolest air of the upcoming week to arrive for the midweek period.
Rising heights and an expansive area of high pressure bring
steadily moderating temperatures and dry weather for the tail end
of the work week into next weekend.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...mostly VFR conditions expected through
Saturday...with the exception of valley fog this morning and again
tonight at khie/kleb.
Sun PM- Monday am...areas of MVFR in showers.
Tuesday...scattered MVFR possible in showers.
short term...north winds will diminish this morning and seas will
follow somewhat...although long period swell from Edouard could
keep seas just below 5 feet through the day. SW winds begin to pickup
late tonight and may Small Craft Advisory again late Saturday.
Sun - Tuesday...small craft winds and seas are possible.