Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service kgyx
1005 am EDT Wednesday may 6 2015
a ridge of high pressure builds east across the area through
Thursday. High pressure will slide east Friday allowing moisture
to return north. With front stalled near the area showers will be
possible late in the weekend through the middle of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
1000 am update...just made some minor changes to temperatures
based on the current observations and trends. Other than that the
dry and warm conditions will continue through the near term and
into the weekend.
Previous discussion... once again the
surface/upper ridge axis will guarantee that mostly sunny and very
dry conditions will dominate once again today. Temperatures will
return into the middle 60s in the mountains and the 70s elsewhere.
High temperatures along the immediate coast will occur by noon
before some local seabreezes kick in and drop the temperatures
Short term /Thursday/...
high pressure remains over the area and clear/calm conditions
expected allowing temperatures to fall into the 40s to around 50.
Thursday the ridge axis remains stationary so more of the same
except temperatures will be a little warmer as 850 mb temperatures
reach +10c to +12c by afternoon. This will allow most temperatures
to range from the middle 70s to lower 80s with very dry conditions
continuing on light west winds. Once again along the coast the
afternoon seabreeze will be clearly felt knocking temperatures
down after reaching their high temperatures around noon.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
moisture will gradually increase through Sunday as the flow turns
more to the southwest as a front approaches from the north
Sunday. As the front approaches...scattered showers are possible
across the region Sunday. The 00z GFS pushes the front south of
the region for early next week leading to much cooler temperatures.
The European model (ecmwf) model isn't as aggressive and keeps the front draped
across northern New England. With either forecast, expect somewhat
cooler temperatures with a chance of showers through middle-week next
week. An area of low pressure currently developing along the
southeast U.S. Coast will gradually move northward early next
week. Although the current models track this low south of the
frontal boundary...the eventual track could impact weather across
northern New England Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
Long term...VFR through Saturday. MVFR possible in scattered showers
short term...winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Long term...winds and seas expected to be below Small Craft Advisory through
Sunday. Winds and seas will then be increasing through middle-week
a red flag warning is in effect from 11 am through 8 PM for the
northern half of New Hampshire as well all but the extreme southwest
corner of Maine.
Very dry conditions will continue today with relative humidity values reaching
20-25 percent across much of the area by afternoon. West to
northwest winds will be gusty to 20 miles per hour at times over all but
southern areas where winds will be too light to warrant a red flag
Anyone considering outside burning should monitor later statements
from the National Weather Service as well as local and state officials
ME...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez007>009-
New Hampshire...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for nhz001>006.