Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
653 am EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
a cold front will cross the region early today with a few
scattered rain or snow showers in the mountains. The front will
usher in breezy conditions by this afternoon. High pressure
follows for Saturday night through Monday. A storm system looks to
affect the region midweek with rain.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
645 am...a few flurries associated with the cold front are now
exiting the middle-coast /which despite some decent radar echoes only
managed to bring visible down to 6-7sm/. Another round of rain showers or shsn
is starting to work through the east-northeast zones. These are associated with the
500mb trough...and will be limited to the Tennessee zones...with some
upslope enhancement. These should wind down by midday. Already
seeing M/clear skies in southern New Hampshire...and this will push east this morning.
However...will see some scattered stratocu cumulus spill back in from the northwest
near the coast this afternoon...as the colder air moves in aloft.

Previously...some radar echoes showing up in advance of cold
front and moving across northern New Hampshire at this time. The only sigh of this
reaching the ground was a 10sm -shra at kmpv. Cannot rule out a
flurry or sprinkle...or even a bit of pl...in the mountains through about
10z...as the front pushes through. Probably the better chance of of
showers will be alon the international and upslope areas of the mountains
between 10-15z...as the upper trough axis moves through. After
this the threat of any precipitation will diminish quickly in the
afternoon. Look for clouds elsewhere to clear out during the
morning as well.

Will see the wind start to pick up after sunrise...but will surge
even stronger during this afternoon...as then 500mb trough axis
shifts east...and low to middle level lapse rates steepen. It will
be more breezy than windy with sustained northwest winds of 15 to 30
miles per hour...and gusts to 30 or so. This will likely lead to
meteorological red flag conditions across southern New Hampshire and SW ME...see
the fire weather discussion below. The downslope will allow highs to top
out in the 50s on the coastal...with a few warmer spots hitting
60. In the mountains will likely see temperatures start to drop off during the
afternoon as cold air advection kicks in....and midday highs will be limited to
the middle-upper 40s.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/...
winds should diminish with an hour or two of sunset...and by late
evening the sheltered spots will begin to decouple....as surface high
moves over the County Warning Area expecting clear skies with mins inthe 20s to
low 30s.

The surface high shifts to our S on Sunday...and skies look to remain
generally sunny. Look for sea breeze to develop...which will limit
highs on the coast to upper 40s and low 50s...but they will reach
into the middle to upper 50s inland.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
high pressure slides eastward on Monday...allowing some southerly return flow to
develop. Closed low off the Carolinas should preclude deep...moist
flow to return northward however...allowing Monday to be a seasonable day
with some sun. Digging trough across the Great Lakes will eventually
dislodge low pressure east...and allow moisture to surge back towards New
England. Tuesday should steadily cloud over...with cool onshore flow.
Since last evening model guidance has trended more progressive
with this trough...as opposed to earlier solutions of a combined
pinwheeling gyre. At this time it appears a period of rainfall will cross the
region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Precipitable water values will be seasonably
high so cannot rule out embedded heavier rain showers. Upper trough crosses
the area late Wednesday...bringing an end to precipitation. However...it will be
seasonably cool and windy in its wake.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term...Manly VFR through sun...could see a few shrasn
briefly bring MVFR conds to khie this morning. Gusty northwest winds
develop late this morning peaking in the afternoon with gusts
close to 30 knots.

Long term...VFR expected Monday...with MVFR or lower conditions
possible in rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

Marine...
short term...Small Craft Advisory for hazard seas will remain in place as swell is
just starting to subside. Winds shift to northwest behind a cold front
this morning...and could see a few gusts to 25 knots late today and
this evening. Wind subside and shift to NE tonight into sun.

Long term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the first part of the week. Gusty northwest flow will bring winds
and seas likely above Small Craft Advisory criteria for the second half of the
week.

&&

Fire weather...
borderline meteorological red flag conds are forecast this
afternoon in southern New Hampshire and SW ME. Based on consultation with ME/New Hampshire
Forest officialsyesterday...fuels not at critical levels...but
will be in touch with them for addl information.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT this
morning for anz150-152-154.

&&

$$
Synopsis...
near term...cempa
short term...
long term...
aviation...
marine...
fire weather...