Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS. 

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE'LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN. 

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations