AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT AND CRAWL
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW
TRACKS N OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAFL TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN AND ABOUT MIDDAY. COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
QPF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THIS TIME FRAME...AS WARM MOIST
PLUME SQUEEZES IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE W.
GOOD LOW-MID-LVL WINDS ACCOMPANY THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
WITH WIND FLOW LINED UP VERTICALLY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AS WELL.
BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...REMOVING THE
LOW LVL FOCUS FOR SHRA...AND THE AIR WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE...AT LEAST OCCNLY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE
LESS INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS START TO
FALL BY MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED...PROBABLY JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS
500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR S. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FORMATION OF
SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE N...ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY....WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SAT MORNING. SAT WILL BE COOL AS THE LOW
PULLS IN AIR FROM THE N...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR NE FLOW LOW LEVEL JET TO FIRE UP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT...WHICH GOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH THIS TYPE OF EVENT WILL HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS
FOR MARINE INTERESTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR WEATHER FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM HEAVY RAIN FROM TIE TO TIME CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AS BOT THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO COASTAL REGIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS +16 AT 850 THURSDAY AND +18 BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG CAN EXPECT EXTENDED
PERIOD OF IFR...OR LOWER AT TIMES...RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. KCON/KLEB/KHIE COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR /ESEPCIALLY KHIE/ TODAY...BUT IT IS LIKELY THESE TERMINALS
WILL FALL BACK TO IFR AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR/LIFR SATURDAY THRU MUCH
OF SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WILL
PROB NEED TO EB EXTENDED INTO SAT AND EVEN SAT NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISHING A LITTLE BIT TODAY...AND WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SCA
WINDS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT IN GENERAL. WATCHING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IT WILL LKLY PRODUCE SCA
WINDS...WITH AN SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BY MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL BE WATCHING RIVERS AND STREAMS THE NEXT 3 DAYS. WE HAVE SEEN
SOME SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NORTHERN NH WHERE 1.5 TO
2 INCHES FELL EARLIER TODAY. THE CONNECTICUT AT NORTH STRATFORD IS
CRESTING ABOUT NOW BUT WILL RISE AGAIN LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH IN SE NH AND SW MAINE THERE
IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGES IN THE AREA ARE SHOWING ABOUT ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR WITH THIS BAND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY
FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA
HYDROLOGY...HAWLEY
