Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Gray ME
1137 am EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
a cold front will cross the region this morning and will push east
of the area this afternoon. High pressure will gradually build in
from the west Saturday night through Tuesday. High pressure will
shift offshore Wednesday as a warm front lifts into New England
from the southwest Wednesday night. A cold front will move through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
clearing in subsidence behind the first boundary has allowed
temperatures to increase at sites that were lagging under
previously overcast skies. Outside of this stripe of clear
skies...clouds prevailed with most locations reporting
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Expect showers to
continue over the higher western mountains throughout the
frontal boundary is now moving into eastern Maine and offshore
along with rain and snow showers. Additional shower activity is
moving through portions of Massachusetts and New York state. Nam12 seems
to be picking up on this and brings some of the lake effect
activity into the northern mountains in the next few hours. Have
adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect these current radar trends. May still
have a little bit of mixed precipitation over the foothills but this
should be on the decline as temperatures continue to warm. Looking
at a very warm day for our neck of the Woods...with even places
like Rangeley and Eustis recovering to near 40 degrees as SW
winds develop in the low levels.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
reinforcing shot of Arctic air will come with a secondary cold
front this evening. Increasing upslope flow and abundant low level
moisture will keep the mountains cloudy overnight with a chance of
snow showers. Downwind of the mountains looking for variable
clouds. Lows by Sunday morning will dip into the single numbers
north and teens south.
Sunday looking cold and blustery as high pressure builds in from
the west. Once again clouds will hang tough in the mountains along
with a few snow showers. Elsewhere looking for partly to mostly
sunny skies. Highs will once again top out well below normal with
teens north and 20s south.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
cold Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday
then holds on just to our north through Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
This will keep low pressure moving by well to our S as our weather remains
colder than normal despite the air mass modifying with 850 mb temperatures
rising to around minus 5 by 12z Wednesday.
The high retreats into the Maritimes late Wednesday as low pressure
moves east into the Great Lakes under a strong upper level cutoff low.
The upper level system moves to the east NE pushing the surface low into
eastern Canada Wednesday night and Thursday. This forces a surface
occluded/cold/warm fnt scenario to set up and move NE toward the
forecast area Wednesday night with a weak surface low forming along the fnt
at the Point of occlusion /which will likely move through coastal
areas early Thursday/ as an upper level short wave rotates around
the upper level cutoff low.
The result will be for clouds then prcp to move into the forecast
area...moving in quickly from SW to NE late Wednesday and
continuing through Wednesday night. Prcp type will most likely be light
snow changing to light mixed north with light snow changing to light mixed
then light rain south...especially along the coast.
The occluded/warm/cold frontal system and surface low move by early
Thursday with improving weather as the light mixed prcp or rain come to an
end. Behind the frontal system cooler air moves in on westerly
winds. Downslope areas won't notice a sharp change in temperatures during
the day...but in the north/Montana zones it will be more noticeable. Also
the north/Montana areas will see upslope clouds and scattered -shsn.
An upper level ridge builds in along with a surface ridge of high
pressure Thursday night into Friday. The air mass starts out cold
Thursday night into Friday morning but modifies Friday afternoon. Low
pressure approaching from the west late Friday may spread clouds
into the region from the west late in the day.
Used a blend of various models...previous forecast and climatology for
the long term forecast.
Aviation /16z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term...areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility this
morning...improving to VFR in the afternoon. VFR tonight and
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
VFR through the long term forecast period as cold high pressure builds in
short term...continuing small craft advisories through tonight.
Gales may be needed for outer waters on Sunday.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
Small Craft Advisory winds and seas Sunday night in cold northwest flow. Winds and seas drop
below Small Craft Advisory levels Monday through Wednesday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for anz150>154.