Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
345 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
high pressure will build east across the region today and be
centered over the region by Wednesday. Late in the week and into
the weekend high pressure moves off the East Coast as a broad
upper trough to the west slowly approaches and possibly forms a
wave of low pressure along the coast.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the upper trough rapidly lifts out to the NE today allowing high
pressure to build east into the region today. Skies will become
partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures will be in the 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
high pressure settles over the region tonight and Wednesday with a drier
air mass that moves over the region from the Great Lakes. A few
instblty showers can't be ruled out on Wednesday in the mountains due to an
upper trough that very slowly approaches from the west. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs Wednesday once
again in the 70s.
Used a blend of the models for maximum/min temperatures forecast.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
persistent upper low near hudsons Bay will continue to spin its
wheels on Thursday. A short wave trough will rotate around this
low on Thursday and move across our area. We/ll have pretty cold
air aloft for this time of year in place and the resultant weak
instability will likely lead to showers and possibly a few low-
topped thunderstorms Thursday. Have highest probability of precipitation /low likely/
across the interior where best forcing will be. Some small hail
not out of the question.
Thereafter...the main question then becomes the chance of rain
over the weekend. The European model (ecmwf) continues to advertise a southern
stream wave rolling across New England on Saturday with widespread
showers. Other data are not as aggressive. Have kept low chance
probability of precipitation in place for the weekend...but will have to watch for any
southern stream influence in our weather. Otherwise...diurnal
showers will be possible Friday through Sunday.
Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR conds except for some LIFR conds in any patchy
early morning fog.
Long term...MVFR conditions likely Thursday across the
interior...and possible on the coast in showers and a few storms.
Thereafter...mainly VFR conditions are expected through the
weekend although we will have to watch for a low probability of
lower conditions Sat with a southern stream wave.
short term...winds diminish today but will continue the Small Craft Advisory for
hazardous seas today for the outer waters as seas remain 4-6 feet.
Seas will subside tonight.
Long term...low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Thursday and Thursday
night...otherwise...sub-sca conditions expected at this time.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 7 am this morning
to 7 PM EDT this evening for anz150-152.