Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
300 am EST Friday Mar 6 2015
high pressure will build south of New England today. A cold front
will approach from the northwest on Saturday and will cross the
area Saturday night. Weak high pressure will build in from the
northwest Sunday. A weak cold front will cross the region on
Monday. A warm front will cross the region on Tuesday. High
pressure will build south of New England on Wednesday.
Near term /today/...
this morning will begin with Arctic air once again over the
region. Temperatures will begin the day with readings in the
single numbers at the coast to as cold as 20 below zero in the
It will be mainly sunny today with some cloudiness remaining
trapped in the mountains. Highs will mainly be between 15 and 20
degrees from north to south...however this may be conservative
with the strong March sun.
Short term /tonight and Saturday/...
while tonight will be yet another very cold night...some
southwesterly gradient will keep readings from completely
bottoming out across the region...albeit expect some readings
below zero in the mountains.
The chance for light snowfall will gradually increase in the
mountains late on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
west. This system is moisture starved...so very little in the way
of snowfall is expected over the far north as the short wave
approaches from the west.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
shortwave trough crosses the area Saturday night with any light
snow likely limited to the mountains. Gradually moderating air
mass will allow temperatures to slowly rise Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday the entire area should rise above freezing... with much of
the southern and coastal areas seeing low 40s. But a cold front
will move through the area during the day on Wednesday... with
much colder air behind it. Cooling will be limited by downsloping
conditions downwind of the mountains initially on Wednesday... but
by Wednesday night and Thursday the cold air takes a firmer hold
over the area. Went below model guidance values for Thursday high
temperatures as there is now a fair consensus that the cold air
will be in full control by that point. Temperatures may not rise
above freezing for a couple of days while this cold air mass
lingers over the area.
No significant precipitation expected over the next several days
as any waves passing through the flow lack a connection to any
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...VFR conditions are expected over the entire period
with high pressure overhead.
Long term...generally VFR conditions expected through midweek.
Some MVFR conditions in snow showers are possible Saturday night
in the mountains.
short term...cold air advection over the coastal waters will
create gusty winds for a few more hours. Will hold onto the small
craft and freezing spray advisories until 7 am.
Long term...weak pressure gradient across the area keeps winds
relatively light through the beginning of next week.
Marine...freezing spray advisory until 7 am EST this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for anz150-