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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
1012 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Synopsis...
a secondary cold front will cross the region tonight and will push
offshore by Tuesday morning. High pressure will gradually build in
from the northwest Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will
crest over the region Wednesday night and will shift offshore on
Thursday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm
front will be quickly followed by a cold front early Friday. The
front will stall south of the area Friday and low pressure will
track northeast along it Friday night and Saturday. Another area
of low pressure crossing southern Canada Saturday night will drive
a cold front through the region by Sunday morning. High pressure
will build in from the west behind the front on Sunday.

&&

Near term /until 7 am Tuesday morning/...
10 PM update...downsloping behind the front has cleared out
clouds south and east of the mountains...so updated sky cover
based on latest satellite. Upslope snow showers will continue in
the mountains during the overnight hours. Temperatures were also
updated based on latest observation and trends...with clearing south of
the mountains...these areas will radiate quite nicely so adjusted
low temperatures a bit lower than previously forecasted.

7 PM update...did a quick update to sky and temperatures based on current
observation/trends and satellite data. Also boosted pop in the mountains
where upslope snow showers can be expected into the morning hours.

Previous discussion...
precipitation associated with the 1st in a series of cold fronts
will be departing the forecast area to the east late this
afternoon. May see some breaks in the overcast developing during
the evening hours downwind of the mountains but clouds will once
again be on the increase toward midnight as a secondary cold
front swings through the region. Expect much of the area to see a
dry night but snow showers will continue in the mountains
overnight and into Tuesday morning where an inch or two of
accumulation will be possible. Overnight lows will generally range
through the 20s from north to south.

&&

Short term /7 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
skies will clear early Tuesday setting up a mostly sunny day
across the forecast area as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Sunshine and downsloping winds will help boost temperatures
into the lower to middle 40s in southern and central Maine and New
Hampshire. Highs will range through the 30s in the north.

Tuesday night looking mostly clear and quiet as high pressure
continues to build in from the west. Low temperatures will dip to between
5 and 10 degrees north and will range through the teens to lower
20s south.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
a progressive pattern will develop through the week.

On Wednesday the colder air and trough will move out of our area.
As it does a weak storm will pass through southern New England,
brining cloud cover into the southern portion of our area. Clear
skies to the north will allow for overnight temperatures to once
again fall into the single digits in the north and middle 20s south.

By Thursday morning temperatures will begin to warm aloft as an
upper level ridge builds into the region. Southerly flow will
develop around a high situated off the Carolina coast. For New
Hampshire south of The Notches and the CT River Valley this south
flow will allow temperatures to climb to near 50. Along the Maine
coast from Portland through Penobscot Bay that same south wind
will flow over the 37 degree ocean, keeping temperatures below 40
for the immediate coast.

Friday will see more warming... with southern New Hampshire reaching 60
degrees. A cold front will approach from the west through the late
afternoon bringing showers. That front will stall across the
region Friday night before another low redevelops along it on
Saturday. Still a bit of a spread on timing with the showers,
front looks to stall off shore which would keep just southern
sections in rain showers while the mountains see just clouds,
however exact location is a bit suspect and would not be surprised
to see the mountains hold onto the rain a bit longer. No matter
the timing, the result is an extended period of showers Friday
night into Saturday. With warm temperatures Friday... it will fall as
rain for all but the highest summits. But as the cold front moves
further through on Saturday afternoon cold air will switch the
precipitation over to upslope snow showers in the mountains. Sunday will
see colder high pressure again move into the region for the start
of next week.

&&

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...00z update...cold front will be pushing offshore
tonight and all areas should return to VFR other than hie where
upslope snow showers will continue into the early morning hours.

Previous discussion...areas of MVFR ceilings/visibility early this
evening... improving to VFR. VFR Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Long term... conditions will deteriorate to IFR on Thursday
night... with LIFR in fog possible for coastal sites. Will see a
mix of MVFR and IFR through the day on Friday before returning to
VFR late Saturday.

&&

Marine...
short term...sca's in effect through early Tuesday afternoon.

Long term...Small Craft Advisory possible for the outer waters Thursday into
Friday.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for anz150>154.

&&

$$
Near term...kistner
aviation...kistner

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