Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
243 PM EST sun Dec 28 2014
an Arctic front will approach from the west tonight and will cross
the region early Monday. High pressure will build in from the west
Monday afternoon through Wednesday. A cold front will approach
from the northwest on Thursday and will cross the region on
Friday. High pressure will build in behind the front Friday night
and will shift offshore on Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front has pushed off shore and a secondary cold front will
move out of Quebec and into our far northern forecast zones
tonight. This will bring colder air but only expect a slight
chance of a snow showing in the mountains with this front with
favorable upslope flow.
Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
the secondary cold front will push through the rest of the area
tomorrow and high pressure will build in behind it. Only going
with slight pop across the north and mountains and should be much
anywhere else. High temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler tomorrow as cold air advection takes over. Skies should
clear out tomorrow and expecting one of our coldest nights in
quite awhile. Although Portland is currently in the top 5 for
warmest December...it should slip back a bit as normal to slightly
below normal are expected.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
quiet but cold week on tap as Arctic air gradually settles
back into the northeast.
High pressure building in from the west on Tuesday will result
in mostly sunny skies with temperatures below normal. Highs
will only range through the teens in the north and won't get
out of the 20s in the south.
Clear and cold weather will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure crests over the region. Lows Tuesday night will
fall to 5 below to 5 above north and in the single numbers to
lower teens south. Highs on Wednesday will once again range
through the teens north and 20s south.
Weak over-running pattern setting up to the west of the forecast
area Wednesday night will bring variable clouds into the region.
Best lift remains north of the border but will probably include
some low chance probability of precipitation in the north. Despite the clouds will again
see low well below normal with single numbers north and teens
Cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday bringing
increasing clouds in northern zones and a chance of late day snow
showers. Remainder of the forecast area will see partly sunny
skies. Highs will generally range through the 20s.
Cold front pushes through the region Thursday night bringing a
round of snow showers to the region along with another shot Arctic
air. Front will push offshore on Friday followed by high pressure.
Morning clouds and lingering flurries will give way to mostly
Big model diffs for the weekend as GFS takes low pressure into
southern Canada well to the west of the forecast area while new
European model (ecmwf) keeps this system well south of the forecast area along with
any associated precipitation. With all the uncertainty will likely keep
the forecast simple with a chance of rain or snow for
Saturday/Saturday night time frame.
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
short term...expecting VFR conditions across the entire region.
May have brief MVFR conditions in the mountains with upslope snow
showers possible later tonight.
Long term...VFR Tuesday through Friday.
short term...winds and seas should decrease and expecting to just
let Small Craft Advisory expire. High pressure builds in tomorrow and no other
flags expected through Tuesday morning.
Long term...sca's may be needed Thursday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for