Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
314 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
a narrow ridge of high pressure will crest over the region early
today and will shift offshore this afternoon as a warm front
shifts into the region from the southwest. The front will lift
north of the region this evening followed by a weak cold front
overnight. The front will push east of the region by Saturday
afternoon and will be followed by a secondary cold front Saturday
night. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday through
Monday. High pressure will hold over the region Tuesday through
most of Wednesday.
Near term /through today/...
weak ridge of high pressure will crest over the region early today
before shifting offshore. After a mostly sunny start to the
day...a warm front approaching from the southwest will quickly
spread middle level clouds across the region during the remainder of
the morning and early afternoon. Best over-running passes north
and west of the forecast area but could see some snow shower
activity in the north...especially during the afternoon. High
temperatures will moderate somewhat compared to yesterdays chilly highs.
Will see temperatures topping out in the middle 20s to near 30 in the
north and lower to middle 30s in the south.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Saturday/...
low pressure crossing southern Quebec will drive a weak cold front
toward the region overnight. Expect thickening clouds during the
evening hours with precipitation edging into western zones after
midnight. After hitting low temperatures during the evening expect
temperatures to rise overnight. Will generally see snow in
northern zones but precipitation will likely be a mix of snow..sleet and
possibly some freezing rain in southern zones. Expect surface
temperatures in coastal area to rise above freezing before daybreak
resulting in a mix changing to rain.
Expect the whole mess to shift east of the forecast area by middle to
late morning. Little in the way of cold air behind the front so
expecting temperatures to rebound nicely under a mix of sun and clouds
downwind of the mountains. Abundant low level moisture and
increasing upslope flow will keep skies cloudy in the north
through the day. Will see highs ranging through the 40s across much
of the forecast area.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
with the cold fnt off to our east colder air moves in on gusty northwest winds
Saturday night and Sunday as 850 mb temperatures drop to minus 20 or colder
for much of the forecast area. The northwest flow may produce some clouds north/Montana
due to upslope the rest of the forecast area should see mostly clear skies
from the downsloping winds. Temperatures will be much below normal under
the influence of the Arctic air mass.
High pressure builds in from Canada Sunday night and Monday and holds on
just to our north through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This will keep
low pressure moving by well to our S as our weather remains colder than
normal despite the air mass modifying with 850 mb temperatures rising to
around minus 5 by early Wednesday.
The high retreats into the Maritimes late Wednesday as low pressure
approaches from the west. This will bring in milder air along with
increasing clouds and some mixed prcp. The mixed prcp continues
Wednesday night as warm moist air continues to surge northward with prcp
likely going over to rain along the coast and maybe further inland.
The fnt moves through Thursday but an upper level system will likely
keep clouds and some light prcp around through the end of the day...
especially north/Montana areas.
Used a blend of various models...HPC quantitative precipitation forecast...previous forecast and
climatology for the long term forecast.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...VFR today. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
tonight through Saturday morning...improving to VFR in the
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...cold northwest flow
Saturday night and Sunday likely to produce MVFR ceiling with MVFR visibility
in isolated to scattered -shsn north/Montana areas...otherwise VFR through the long
term forecast period as cold high pressure builds in from Canada.
short term...freezing spray advisory and Small Craft Advisory in affect through
daybreak. Sca's will likely be needed tonight into Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...Small Craft Advisory winds and seas
developing Saturday night and continuing through Sunday and into Sunday
night in cold northwest flow. Winds and seas drop below Small Craft Advisory levels Monday
through Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for
Freezing spray advisory until 6 am EDT early this morning for