Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
231 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014
an upper trough and moderate northwest flow behind the cold
front will provide some lingering clouds and a possible shower
across the favorable upslope areas of the higher terrain tonight.
Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will move overhead Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure will continue to build and remain over
the region late in the week and through the weekend with a
significant warming trend expected and cool clear nights through
at least Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will continue
into the evening hours before abating by midnight. A light wind
should continue overnight in many places due to a pretty tight
gradient in place so not too worried about widespread frost
Otherwise...mostly clear skies are expected at most
locations while the mountains hang onto stratocu due to most low
level upslope flow. Some River Valley fog possible very late
tonight into some areas such as the CT River Valley where the
atmosphere can briefly decouple.
Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
another short wave trough will swing across northern zones Tuesday
morning...and this may bring a few clouds to the area. Upslope
mountain locations should hang onto stratocu at least through the
morning. Otherwise...not as gusty as today with temperatures mainly in
the 60s. Clear calm and chilly Tuesday night as high pressure
builds in. Scattered frost possible coastal zones where the season
has not ended yet.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure will already be well established by the beginning
of the period and will continue to remain anchored over New
England through the entire period. This will allow for a prolonged
period of dry...sunny conditions during the day and clear skies
with strong radiational cooling during the nighttime periods. This
means that late night fog will be likely over the interior
valleys each night...especially over the CT River Valley.
More of a subtropical ridge starts to build by the weekend and
warming trend with temperatures heading into the middle to upper 70s is
expected. Although it currently appears that the extended forecast
looks dry and pleasant...if there are any northern stream impulses
that climb the ridge...they could drag a back door cold front across
the region as both the Euro and GFS are hinting at for next Monday.
Either way...the weather looks great for at least an extended
stretch of time. However...we have gotten stuck with low clouds and
drizzle many times before while being under high pressure...i'll
have to play the role of a pessimist for now due to degree of
uncertainty and will follow a blend of model suites.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR outside the mountains tonight into Tuesday. Gusty
winds will abate this evening.
Long term...high pressure will remain anchored over the region
during the long term. This will allow for mostly VFR
conditions...however patchy dense late night fog may allow for isolated
LIFR conditions across some of the interior valleys...especially at
leb and hie.
short term...Small Craft Advisory in effect through tonight for all waters with
gusty winds and seas at or above 5 feet expected. Conditions will abate late
tonight and Tuesday.
Long term...winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Tuesday for anz150>154.