Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
340 am EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure offshore will bring a southerly flow over the
northeast and transport warmer air into the area. Some afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm are possible today. A weak cold front
will cross the area Monday night and early Tuesday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Another moisture starved cold front
will cross the area Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure follows
for late Wednesday into Friday. A developing onshore flow and an
approaching warm front will make the weather increasingly
unsettled for the upcoming weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
coastal stratus and fog having a tougher time holding together
this morning than yesterday...given increasing flow and steeper
lapse rates above the bl...and it should dissipate farily quickly
For today...will see weak 500 mb wave moving through the 500mb
ridging aloft...which will allow for some height falls this
morning and produce some decent low level lapse rates away from the
coast this afternoon. Dynamic forcing not impressive...but there
will be some convergence generated by weak Lee trough...and
enough instability to probably get a boost from low level
lift...either due to terrain...or along inland side of sea breeze
boundary. Depending on which which mesoscale model you look
at...including rap/WRF/namdng/CMC 2... convection probability of precipitation up
in either of these spots around 18-21z...with a slight skew toward
the mts and foothills of western ME. Would expect some scattered rain showers...isolate
thunderstorms and rain this afternoon away from the coast...as the stable marine layer
is likely to quickly destroy any convection that moves into it.
Would not be surprised to see a report or two of graupel/small
hail given colder air aloft. Again the sea breeze keeps the
immediate coast about 10 f cooler for highs today...upper 50s to
low 60s...where inland spots will reach to 70-75.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
any rain showers will diminish quickly with the setting sun and skies
should become mainly clear. Could see another round of coastal
stratus and fog again...although probability less likely given increasing
SW flow...but if the stratus sits just offshore through the day...it
is likely to creep in after sunset. Mins will generally be from
around 40 into the middle 40s.
Monday looks to be warm and generally sunny as gradient SW flow
develops. Highs in the middle 70s to low 80s at all but the
immediate shoreline....where it will stay in the 60s. Any precipitation
from approaching cold front will hold off until after sunset.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
a cold front moves across the region Monday night and early
Tuesday...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be associated
with the front. By middle morning Tuesday the front moves well southeast
of the area with high pressure to build in from the Great Lakes.
Clearing will be expected from north to south Tuesday with
continued mild temperatures as very little in the way of cool air
makes its way south behind the front. High pressure will bring
sunny skies Wednesday and again Thursday with temperatures near
70 except 60s in the mountains. By Friday clouds spill across the
upper ridge axis over the northeast...this will be due to an
approaching warm front from the west. Models show unsettled
weather to develop over the weekend with a warmer and moist
unstable southwest flow. It looks like Spring has finally sprung!
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...the coastal stratus dissipates quickly after sunrise
today with VFR into the evening. An isolate rain showers or even a thunderstorms and rain
possible away from the coast...but best chance will be at khie...and
Long term...Monday night into Tuesday morning scattered MVFR
conditions possible in showers and any thunderstorms...otherwise
VFR conditions the rest of the outlook period.
short term...SW winds pick up during the day and could approach
Small Craft Advisory in the afternoon.
Long term...Monday night...small craft winds and seas are
possible over the outer waters. Otherwise winds and seas will
remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the outlook period.
afternoon humidity levels drop to 35-45 percent today but winds
will remain light...with good relative humidity recovery tonight. Monday will see
30-40 percent min relative humidity values with slightly stronger winds...10-15
miles per hour...but are expected to remain below red flag criteria. Good
recovery is expected Monday night...with scattered showers.