Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1018 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014
a secondary cold front will approach from the west tonight and
will push offshore late tonight. High pressure will build in from the
west Thursday through Friday. High pressure will shift offshore on Sat. A weak
warm front will approach from the southwest on Sunday and will
stall south of the region Sunday night. A complex frontal system
will move in Monday with Sowers and thunderstorms. A cold front
will move off the coast Wednesday morning.
Near term /tonight/...
1015 PM update...
broken line of showers/storms tracking east across the area. Best
chance of rain will be in southern areas where activity is
stronger and more likely to last as it moves east. Updated hourly
pop to reflect current thinking. No other significant changes made
to the going forecast.
745 PM update...
some of the remnant showers have made their way into southwest
Maine. Have raised hourly pop near and just north of Portland for
this. Otherwise... still seeing activity to our west trying to
move east into the area. Still expect this activity to be
weakening as it approaches.
have updated pop to reflect current trends in convection. Ridging
aloft and drying at the surface has decreased instability across
the area today. Better instability exists to the southwest... and
some lingering storms will drift into far southwest New Hampshire
this evening before dying. Think the overall severe threat is
low... but some dying storms may need to be watched for some
strong wind gusts. Storm at Lebanon just caused 35 miles per hour gusts.
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into western zones
in an hour or so. Have indicated the possibility of gusty winds
and small hail for southern New Hampshire. Don/T expect anything
more than a possible isolated severe cell or two in New
Hampshire. Showers and thunder should dissipate early this
evening. Secondary cold front will push off the coast early
Thursday morning and usher even drier air.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
high pressure will move in for Thursday and Thursday night. Lower
humidity but still warm with highs in the middle 70s and lower 80s.
Thursday night will be cool with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.
Used a blend of mav and met guidance for temperatures.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
no major changes in the forecast from the previous issuance. High
pressure will be overhead to start the period...and bring great
weather with low humidity through Saturday. The high will then
shift off shore and winds will shift to the southwest...bringing a
return to the heat and humidity for Sunday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase as
we head into the beginning of the work week. Sunday should remain
mostly dry...however that all depends on the speed of a short wave
and associated cold front moving out of Canada. Keeping slight
chance to chance pop in there for now...with the most likely shot of
seeing anything over the northwestern County Warning Area. Monday and Tuesday is
when that short wave trough and associated cold front ahead of a
cold upper level low should slowly push across New England. This
front will stall over the area...and be the focus of showers and
storms through Tuesday afternoon as the upper level low shifts into
the Great Lakes region and provides additional shortwave support for
the development of storms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
front will finally push out late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
and drier air will move back in behind it.
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term...expect mostly VFR with isolated MVFR/IFR for leb...
hie... and con in thunder.
VFR conditions through Sunday...then scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Monday will make for periods of IFR conditions possible.
short term...have extended the Small Craft Advisory for seas through 12z tomorrow.
Otherwise quiet on the waters.
should remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT
Thursday for anz150-152-154.
Near term update... Kimble