Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
558 am EST Friday Nov 27 2015
southwest flow today ahead of a cold front will allow for highs
10 to 20 degrees above normal across the region. The cold front
will move southeastward and eventually cross our area late tonight.
It will bring a few showers...especially across northern portions
of the forecast area. High pressure will move in again behind the
front for Saturday with cooler conditions expected. The next
chance of precipitation after tonight will come Tuesday night and
Wednesday with a potential storm system. At this time looks to be
in the form of rain.
Near term /through tonight/...
6 am update...little change to the going forecast. Relatively
warm air continues to work into the region. Stratus and fog are
also present...however this should thin a few hours after sunrise
allowing for a partly sunny day in many places.
Our region will be in the warm sector today as a cold front
gradually approaches from the northwest. Highs should top out a
good 15 degrees above normal at most locations. Skies will be
mostly cloudy early on today with some fog and stratus.
However...some sun is likely to be seen...especially across
southernmost zones where a period of mostly sunny skies will be
possible. As the cold front approaches late in the day...rain
showers should develop across northernmost zones late in the
afternoon. The rest of the area should remain dry.
Short term /Saturday/...
a cold front will cross the region tonight. The best chance of
showers will be across our northern zones where forcing for
ascent and overall moisture availability will be greatest. Went
with likely to categorical probability of precipitation there this evening. As colder air
moves in...the rain showers should turn to snow showers especially
at higher elevations...but aren/T expected to last long as dry air
moves in. A light coating of snow will be possible near the
Canadian border mainly at elevations above 1500 feet. Further
south...shower chances will be less. In fact it is possible that
locations across southern New Hampshire Don/T measure. Best chance of showers
will be central Maine to the middle coast. A relatively warm night is
expected ahead of the front. Would not be surprised if
temperatures remain in the 50s across southeastern New Hampshire and portions
of southernmost coastal ME.
Drier and cooler air moves in on Saturday and will allow for
plenty of sunshine and perhaps a period of gusty winds in the
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
Canadian high pressure gradually builds south into the region
Saturday night and Sunday and becomes centered over the area
Monday. By Tuesday the high moves offshore as a vertically stacked cutoff
low moves east into the Great Lakes. A return warm air advection pattern will
develop possibly allowing some mixed ptype to develop Tuesday and Tuesday
night but gradually changing to all rain in all areas except the
higher mountains. Models have been having a tough time in handling
the system that will be moving through the Great Lakes and
eventually into New England. Considering more continuity in model
to model runs with the Euro it was preferred which would be slower
due to the cutoff low slower to drift east. Confidence is low
however for Tuesday into Wednesday so for now will hedge with the superblend
of the models. Either way it does not appear to be significant
Once the system exits a return to high pressure and dry
Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through the
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...pockets of MVFR to IFR conditions are likely through
above 12 or 13z in low clouds and patchy fog. Thereafter...VFR
conditions are expected. A cold front is expected to pass across
the region tonight and may allow for conditions to lower to MVFR
/with some pockets of IFR/ once again. VFR conditions are expected
Long term...VFR conditions except possibly becoming MVFR on Tuesday.
short term...southwest flow over the waters will continue to gust
to around 25 or 30 knots off and on through today. There may be
periods where the gusts slacken a little bit... but they will be
fairly brief so the Small Craft Advisory will remain continuous
through the period. The cold front arrives and switches winds
around to the north early Saturday. The small craft has been
extended through Saturday morning as a period of 25 to 30 knots gusts
occur in the cold air advection in the wake of the cold front.
Long term...Canadian high pressure gradually becomes centered over the
region Saturday night through Monday before moving offshore Tuesday.
Winds and seas to remain light and below Small Craft Advisory conditions.
the astronomical high tide is 11.5 feet today around midday. This
is a mere half foot from flood stage. However...winds are
expected to be out of the southwest which would not favor a
significant surge for the vulnerable beaches. Therefore coastal
flood issues are not expected in spite of the high astronomical
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for anz150>154.