Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
617 am EDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
high pressure will build in from the west through Friday and
shift offshore on Saturday...bringing cooler and less humid
conditions. A warm front crosses the area Saturday night into
Sunday. A rather summery pattern will continue into early next
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
615 am...just an update to reflect current observation...but forecast
thinking generally unchanged for today. More clouds in the mountains
with a few isolated rain showers in the upslope flow. More sun and warmer
temperatures in the downslope areas.
Previously for today...500mb trough sag southeast toward whats left of
Cristobal...and will see upper level trough swing through...this
could produce a few light rain showers...especially in upslope areas of
the mountains also will see borderline breezy conds today with northwest
winds 10-15 miles per hour...with some gusts 20-25 miles per hour. The northwest flow will
allow for downslope warming on the coastal plain with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. In the mountains...with more clouds and
upslope...look for highs only 65-70.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
the upper level trough shifts further east...and everywhere clears out
for the most part. Enough of a pressure gradient exists...at least into
the evening...to keep some light northwest winds going...and prevent perfect
rad cooling conds...so lows will generally drop between the middle
40s north...to the middle 50s S. A few of the sheltered elevated mountain valleys
could dip to around 40.
As the high settles over the region...look for mainly sunny
skies. However...a weak east-NE flow will keep things on the cool
side...with highs mostly 70-75 across the region.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the models are in general agreement on the long wave pattern
well into next week. Nearly zonal flow and a mean jet position to
our north will bring an extended period of above normal temperatures
to the forecast area. The ridge slides offshore Saturday with
return flow ushering warmer and more humid air into the region for
the Holiday weekend. A slow-moving cold front will bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as we head through
the Holiday weekend and into Labor Day. Another cold front will
cross the region on Wednesday.
Aviation /10z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...will likely see kleb in out of fog through
daybreak...and might see some develop at Aug or rkd. Thinking
everywhere else will see enough boundary layer mixing to prevent it.
Otherwise VFR through today...with northwest winds gusting to around 20
kts at times. Expect valley fog in the usual spots tonight. VFR
continue through Friday.
Sun - Monday...areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.
short term...have left the Small Craft Advisory for hazard seas where it is for now.
Latest wave guidance continue to keep the highest swell of 5-7 feet
from Cristobal limited mostly to the waters S of Penobscot Bay.
Still could come further west by tonight. Northwest winds behind the cold
front surge tonight...and could get close to Small Craft Advisory criteria as
well...but looks to stay below at this time.
Sat - sun...small craft winds and seas are possible.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
evening for anz150.