Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1151 PM EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
high pressure will enter the region tonight and Thursday. Another
storm system will likely bring snowfall to the area late Thursday
night through Friday night. High pressure will follow over the
weekend...with another system moving south of New England on
Monday. High pressure will follow midweek.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
1148 PM...minor estf update to ingest the latest mesonet into 1st
mesoscale models continue to show any leftover light snow showers
will exit the midcoast region of Maine late this afternoon.
Otherwise...clear skies...diminishing winds and a fresh snowpack
will lead to radiational cooling overnight. Just about all
communities will be at or below zero away from the coast...with
perhaps a few shoreline towns remaining above zero for minimum
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
a short wave will be digging southward from Canada on Thursday.
Overall...the upper level flow will remain positively tilted
during the first part of the day. Thereafter...the flow will
become neutrally tilted by late in the day Thursday. This will
allow for gradual cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes as the system
Temperatures will remain seasonable cool on Thursday. Dew points
will remain very low as dry conditions persist.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
the eastern block...part of the continual +pna patter at 500mb has set
up to produce a steady wave generator over far western Canada...which
will send waves through the base of the cold and large scale trough
over eastern noam. Look for a cold and somewhat active pattern into
First system will impact the region Thursday night into Friday night as
clipper system tracks of the Great Lakes and across New
England...reaching the Gulf of ME Friday. Light snow breaks out
from west to east Thursday night across the County Warning Area. As a reinforcing shot of
upper level energy dives into the base of the trough Friday...500mb
low tilts negative and starts closing off. This will allow surface low
to intensify during the day Friday into Friday night. This should begin
to enhance snow as middle-level deformation enhances and banding
develops. Looks like the low will be too far east for the heavier
snows to push back west into New Hampshire...but they will likely move into parts
of central and maybe western ME Friday after and evening. A watch has been
issued to cover the potential for banding in ME zones. Several
hours of heavy snow is possible with 6 to perhaps as high as 10
inches in a few spots. In New Hampshire...we could see advisory levels snows
late Thursday night into Friday.
The low shifts east by Sat morning and the middle-upper level system
begins to fill...so although some -sn may linger into Sat
morning...especially in eastern zones...expect northwest flow to take over
and cold air advection advection to begin in earnest with gusty winds and highs
dropping back into the single digits to teens.
Cold air settles back in Sat night and sun...although weak high
pressure will keep things dry. Operational 12z GFS and Euro now agree
in keeping surface low well offshore Sun night into Monday...while the
CMC develops fairly potent coastal low. However...ensemble spreads
remain quite high when it comes to surface low position...so have
stayed the course with the chance probability of precipitation for this period. Cold air will
remain in place through Tuesday...with perhaps some moderation by
the middle of next week.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...VFR conditions tonight and Friday with diminishing
Long term...IFR conds or lower likely during the day on Friday at
all terminals. Some improvement possible at New Hampshire sites Friday
night...but will probability flight restrictions linger in ME through
Friday night...with improvement to VFR at all terminals on Sat.
However...gusty northwest winds will develop on Saturday.
short term...winds will continue to be gusty from the northwest
over the outer waters and the Penobscot Bay tonight...sufficient
enough for scas. Seas above 5 feet as well.
Long term...gales will likely be needed in northwest flow Friday night into
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night for mez007>009-012>014-018>028.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Thursday for anz150>152-