Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service tiyan GU
640 am chst Monday may 20 2013
Synopsis...
a surface ridge persists just north of Saipan...resulting in light
winds and little or nothing in the way of showers.
&&
Discussion...
have taken out any mention of showers in the forecast for today
as strong subsidence and sharp drying in the middle-levels should
kill even any attempts at island heating-induced showers during
the day. Isolated showers will finally work back in during the
day on Tuesday as the ridge drifts northward and deeper easterly
flow brings some moisture back into the region.
&&
Fire weather...
fuels are very dry...but light winds will prevent conditions from
meeting red flag criteria.
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Eastern micronesia...
satellite imagery shows convection associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone
redeveloping across portions of Kosrae and Pohnpei states but
remaining south of Majuro...although a few showers and possibly
some thunderstorms are developing east of Majuro. Relatively active inter-tropical convergence zone
pattern remains in place for the next couple of days across the
region...especially Kosrae as most focused zone of trade-wind
convergence is expected to hover around 5n. Conditions should
start to settle down by the end of the week as convergence and
showers diminish. Favorable upper-level dynamics still exist for
thunderstorm development with an upper trough north of the region.
&&
Western micronesia...
inter-tropical convergence zone related showers will affect Chuuk today before moving to the
west and south tonight. Models indicate the bulk of convection
should stay to the south of Chuuk through the end of the week. A
weak disturbance east of Yap is still expected to bring wet
conditions to Yap later today. Although satellite imagery currently
suggests limited shower coverage...models still are robust in
bringing scattered showers into Yap waters later today and possibly
Koror tonight. Otherwise...relatively benign seas and winds will
exist across western micronesia through the rest of the week.
&&
Gum watches/warnings/advisories...
GU...none.
Marianas waters...none.
&&
$$
Middlebrooke/Williams
