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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
533 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA AND 
SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. TROPICAL 
STORM NOUL IS VERY CLOSE TO YAP AND EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY 
WESTWARD. ALSO...A CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST 
OF POHNPEI NEAR 5N156E WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. 
VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT 15 KT AND IPAN BUOY SHOWS 
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND 
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARIANAS INTO THIS WEEKEND. 
MOST OF THE MODELS STILL INDICATE THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI WILL 
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND START MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY OR 
SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A SMALL SOUTHWEST TO 
WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET LATE SATURDAY AND POSSILY HIGHER BY 
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 
MARINE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING 
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM NUOL WILL LIKELY BECOME 
A TYPHOON TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS YAP ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 
AND CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE WEAK CIRCULATION JUST SW OF 
POHNPEI AT 5N156E WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS 
INDICATE IT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND START MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST 
BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A CIRCULATION JUST SW OF POHNPEI AT 5N156E... 
WHICH IS JTWC INVEST 93W...AND A WEAK CIRCULATION FARTHER EAST NEAR 
2N178E. WEATHER CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL BE UNSTABLE IN 
THE COMING DAYS WHILE INVEST 93W REMAINS NEARBY. INVEST AREA 93W IS 
EXPECTED TO START MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND 
WEATHER SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK FOR NEXT 
WEEK. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO FOR THE 
NEAR TERM...BUT MODELS INDUCATE A PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT 
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE
OF SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

YAP AND KOROR...TROPICAL STORM NUOL WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON 
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS YAP ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN 
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR YAP AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI. 
HAZARDOUS SEA AND SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AT KOROR WHILE NOUL 
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS YAP STATE. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/DEVITA/W. AYDLETT

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