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AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
702 PM CHST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR LINE NORTHWEST
OF THE MARIANAS...AND A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SIUATED
EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 154E...MOVING WEST. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SPRINKLES MAINLY WEST OF ROTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. THE WEAK
TRADE DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A NEW SHEAR LINE MAY SETTLE INTO THE MARIANAS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY INCREASE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST YET...AS THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER
WITH IT.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
IN LIGHT OF RECENT UNDER-REPRESENTATION OF SEAS IN THE WW3
GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED A FOOT TO THE LATEST WW3 OUTPUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 DAYS. THIS WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 7-9 FEET BY MONDAY WITH
PATCHY 10-FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NORTH SWELL
WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY...AND MAY SEE HIGH SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING REEFS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR
3N163E...WHILE CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI ACROSS KOSRAE AND THE SOUTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. THIS BAND OF CONVERGING TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 4N
AND 6N STRETCHES EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. WITH KOSRAE
LYING DIRECTLY IN ITS PATH...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THAT ISLAND THRU THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS BAND PROGRESSES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD SPILL NORTHWARD OVER MAJURO AND POHNPEI AS WELL...AND IT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHUUK LATE FRIDAY.
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THIS COULD ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BAND OF
CONVERGING TRADES TO DECREASE.
 
PEAKING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. SATELLITE
ALTIMETRY ALSO INDICATES COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET...WHICH ARE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD FROM
POHNPEI STATE TO CHUUK STATE. BOTH SURF AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE FRIDAY AND COULD FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

KOROR AND YAP...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL 
PREVAIL THE REST OF THIS WEEK. IN THE LONGER TERM...A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM 25N WILL BECOME A SHEAR LINE OVER 
THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND POSSIBLY STALL NEAR 15N BY SATURDAY...THEN 
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING OFF CHINA MIGHT PUSH 
THIS SHEAR LINE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD BOTH LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA/SIMPSON

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