Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Latest update...
synopsis/short term/long term/Hydro/marine

issued at 255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

High pressure will hold in control of the weather for lower Michigan
likely right on through next weekend. This will allow for cool
nights and mild days through the period with little in the way of
cloud cover.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

No impactful weather is expected in the short term. Upper ridge
centered over the plains states this afternoon will slowly build
over the area through Tuesday night. A trough tries to approach the area
on Wednesday...however it gets stopped as the long wave pattern slows up
with a strong ridge expected to take shape over the western Atlantic. An
extension of the western Atlantic ridge will hold over our area
inbetween troughs over both the southeast Continental U.S. And the upper Midwest.

We will see maximum temperatures warm into the 70s on Tuesday and hold through Wednesday.
The thermal trough shifts east after today and we see milder temperatures
aloft move in. We have gone a little above MOS guidance for maximum
temperatures with dry conditions in place. These dry conditions will also
likely lead to slightly cooler temperatures for the night time. Some
isolated fog is possible at night near low spots and inland bodies
of water as is typical at this time of the year. However it would be
so localized that it will not require a mention in the forecast at
this time.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Quiet weather expected in the extended period as the Great Lakes
region is dominated by strong ridging at the surface and aloft until the
weekend. Some of the model guidance shows height falls beginning by
Sunday as upper ridge axis moves east and plains upper low opens up
phases with a northern stream shortwave trough. Ensemble spread and
timing and amplitude differences among the various models leave
little confidence in the details for late in the period so we will
leave out precipitation for now...although some isolated showers may be
possible late Sunday into Monday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 133 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

We will have VFR conditions with northwest winds less than 10
knots this afternoon and evening. Some shallow fog will form by
daybreak with the potential for MVFR and even brief periods of IFR
conditions...most likely at jxn and azo and any place near river
valleys or Inland Lakes. VFR is expected for Tuesday with west
winds below 10 knots.


issued at 255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

No marine concerns likely for the next week. Waves continue to
subside this afternoon from the most recent wind event from
yesterday. There is a good chance that winds will remain below 15
knots right on through next weekend with high pressure controlling
the weather.


issued at 255 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Slight rises are still occurring at some river gages...but all are
well below action stage and are expected to stay that way. Dry
weather will be dominant through the rest of the week and no Hydro
concerns are anticipated.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...njj
long term...ostuno

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations