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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
329 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Latest update...
synopsis/short term/long term/marine

issued at 329 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

A quiet weekend is in store with dry conditions expected. There will
be some clouds passing through the region...especially this
morning...but in general mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions
are on tap for the weekend. Highs will top out in the lower 60s
today which is near normal. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower
70s as a warming southwest wind will be in place. Much of next week
looks dry as well with seasonable temperatures.


Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 329 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Limited concerns in the short term with dry weather forecast

A patch of high clouds is working southeast through the area this
morning and it looks fairly thick. The day may start of partly sunny
in the south...but the clouds should work southeast fairly quick.
Overall...mostly clear to partly cloudy through the short term.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region Monday...but at
this point it looks to come through dry with limited moisture in the
profile. We had small 20 percent probability of precipitation in the forecast...but removed them
as both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing dry conditions. The front
comes through before maximum heating...which should help in keeping
things dry.

Highs near normal today warming into the lower 70s for Sunday and

Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 329 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Upper trough will be predominate across the eastern US through the
period. Temperatures will be closer to normal for highs...around 60
for much of the period. Much of the week will be dry but there may
be an opportunity for a shower or two Thursday or Friday. The European model (ecmwf)
and GFS are in agreement on the upper trough but have slightly
different solutions late in the week. The European model (ecmwf) shows a stronger
short wave Friday moving southeast in the upper flow across the
Great Lakes whereas the GFS is a bit quicker and weaker and pushes
it through Thursday. Either way quantitative precipitation forecast is low as there isn/T much
moisture to work with but both models would bring a reinforcing shot
of cooler air into the County Warning Area toward next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 730 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

VFR conditions should prevail at most places overnight. There
could be some shallow ground fog at jxn which could bring MVFR and
IFR at times late tonight. Winds will be decreasing to below 10
knots this evening then picking up from the southwest on Saturday
morning around 10 knots.


issued at 329 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Have opted to issue a Small Craft Advisory starting this afternoon
north of Whitehall based on winds from the RUC. Winds via the RUC
ramp up conditions in our northern two zones by midday. Waves of 3-5
feet can be expected up there this afternoon and evening. The
gradient will build southward tonight and have issued a Small Craft
Advisory for the remainder of the zones starting this evening. The
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all areas tonight and Sunday.

A persisent strong southwest flow will be in place essentially from
this evening all the way into Monday. The Small Craft Advisory will likely need to
extended in time through Sunday night and into Monday...if not
Tuesday. BUFKIT overviews of wind are quite telling of a long
duration southwest flow wave event. The flow shifts to the northwest
Monday evening behind the cold frontal passage with strong winds
continuing into Tuesday morning.

Bottom line...a rough period on The Big Lake through the weekend and
into early next week. Southern Lake Michigan today will be the only
exception to the rule.


issued at 1145 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

No flooding concerns exist in the next several days.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the next week. A
frontal boundary may bring showers to the area Monday. Overall
precipitation amounts are expected to be light. Otherwise...any
wet weather through the next 7 days will be the exception and not
the rule.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday
for lmz848-849.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
for lmz844>847.



short term...Duke
long term...99

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