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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
730 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Latest update...

issued at 251 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Dry conditions will continue into the weekend with warmer
temperatures by Sunday...when many locations will be in the 70s.
A southwest breeze will be picking up on Sunday which will be a
bit gusty along the Lakeshore and will also help keep temperatures
down in the 60s there. Next week is shaping up to be quite dry
with only a few minor chances for some showers at this point.
Temperatures look seasonable with highs within a few degrees
either side of 60.


Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 251 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Primary concern regards frost potential tonight. Overall the
threat appears low enough to only warrant patchy wording across
the interior portion of central lower...from rqb and mop to the
north. MOS guidance as well as blended short range model guidance
does not support lows below the middle 30s for this region...and
with the rap13 showing some higher relative humidity values at h500 and h850 it
seems there will be areas of clouds around tonight that may
preclude temperatures from dropping too low.

Otherwise...temperatures rebound nicely on Sunday with highs in the 70s
away from the lake. I suspect winds will be in the 15-25 miles per hour range
for most...making for a bit of a breezy day but nonetheless a
pleasant one for October. Looks quite sunny on Sunday as well.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 251 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

No significant changes to the forecast. Expect a slight chance of
rain Monday with precipitation amounts of only a few hundredths of
an inch possible. No other concerns through Friday.

For Monday...there is good agreement among the models regarding
having a deep surface low in place over Ontario with the European model (ecmwf)
showing it especially deep and centered just north of Lake Superior.
Better rain chances will remain closer to the surface low. With
strong upper pv forcing in the vicinity still thought at least a
slight chance for rain was justified...which GOES above numerical

After this...high pressure and dry weather will predominate. Highs
around 70 Monday ahead of the cold front will moderate to the 60-65
range for the rest of the week after the front has passed.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 730 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

VFR conditions should prevail at most places overnight. There
could be some shallow ground fog at jxn which could bring MVFR and
IFR at times late tonight. Winds will be decreasing to below 10
knots this evening then picking up from the southwest on Saturday
morning around 10 knots.


issued at 251 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Will allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue this evening though our latest wave
model run brings the waves down dramatically by 00z. It may be
cancelled early. Looks like a prolonged Small Craft Advisory will be needed from
Saturday night through at least Monday night or Tuesday morning
with waves holding up in the 3-5ft or 4-6ft range for an extended
period of winds turn west/northwest behind a cold front Monday


issued at 1145 am EDT Friday Oct 9 2015

No flooding concerns exist in the next several days.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the next week. A
frontal boundary may bring showers to the area Monday. Overall
precipitation amounts are expected to be light. Otherwise...any
wet weather through the next 7 days will be the exception and not
the rule.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Saturday for lmz844>849.



short term...Hoving
long term...tjt

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